SECURING PROSPERITY IN THE COASTAL ZONE VIRGINIA ACADEMY OF SCIENCE, ENGINEERING, AND MEDICINE 2018 Summit Report Contents Senator Mark Warner Introductory Remarks . 1 Thomas Bostick Keynote: Reducing the Risks of Coastal Storms . 2 Ann Phillips Keynote: A Vision for Coastal Adaptation and Protection . 4 Thomas Farrell, Jr. Keynote: Sustainable Energy Supported by Sustainable Business Practices . 6 ASSETS . 8 James Balocki The Naval Presence in Hampton Roads . 9 Bill Wrobel Virginia’s Critical Aerospace Asset . 10 Kit Chope Building Virginia’s Port of the Future . 11 STRESSORS . 12 Jonathan Woodruff Providing Context for Resiliency . 13 J. Glenn Morris, MD The Psychological Impact of Disaster . 14 Jonathan S. Towner Ecosystem Services Delivered by Virginia’s Coastal Region . 15 OPPORTUNITIES . 16 Andrew Keeler Managing the Inevitable Transition from the Coast . 17 John Headland Quantitative Resilience . 18 David Johnston The Example of Charleston . 19 Writing and Editing: Charles Feigenoff Design: Roseberries Cover Photo: LWM/NASA/LANDSAT / Alamy Stock Photo FROM SENATOR MARK WARNER Dear Friends, In 2013, I convened a small group comprised of the Virginia-based members of the three national academies—National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering, and the National Academy of Medicine—along with the presidents of Virginia’s premier research universities to develop an independent body of science and technology experts to advise state policymakers on related issues of the day . From this meeting, the Virginia Academy of Science, Engineering, and Medicine (VASEM), modeled after the National Academies, formed and began hosting summits to forecast emerging issues critical to all Virginians . The 2018 Annual Summit on Securing Prosperity in the Coastal Zone covered a broad range of interconnected issues that impact the prosperity of all Virginians . Hampton Roads and the surrounding coastal region in Virginia is host to the world’s largest Navy base, a bustling port, top-tier research assets in our universities, national labs, and NASA facilities, and a fast-growing population and private sector economy . By providing opportunities for our policymakers and industry and research professionals to collaborate, we can develop a plan to maximize the potential of the coastal zone’s assets and work to address emerging issues . The organizing committee for this year’s summit brought together a cross-section of universities working on issues related to the challenges facing Virginia’s coastal zone . From this summit, important conversations are continuing with policymakers about further work that can be done as Virginia wrestles with this issue . Bringing our research capabilities together to inform policymakers with actionable guidance is why I helped create VASEM . I look forward to following its progress . Sincerely, Mark R . Warner United States Senator VIRGINIA ACADEMY OF SCIENCE, ENGINEERING, AND MEDICINE 1 KEYNOTE Lieutenant General (Ret.) Thomas Bostick, Former Chief of Engineers and Commanding General of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers REDUCING THE RISK OF COASTAL STORMS t . General (Ret .) Thomas Bostick kicked off the 2018 VASEM Summit by praising Virginians for their Lpioneering efforts to plan for sea-level rise and more frequent and intense storms . “People in coastal areas across the country are focusing on this region,” he said . “It is leading the nation in exploring how we will live with water in the future ”. One reason, he suggested, is the special urgency of the challenge facing Virginia . Virginia is being impacted by subsiding land and a slowing Gulf Stream as well as rising seas . The result is the highest relative sea-level rise on the entire East Coast . Bostick is in a position to know . He retired as Chief of Engineers of the United States Army and Commanding General of the U .S . Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) . In that post, he helped lead the response and recovery efforts in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy, which included over $5 billion in USACE projects . “I come here knowing that you have a great team of educators, scientists, and engineers, as well as business, academic, and community leaders who are coming together to tackle these very complex issues,” he said . Throughout his keynote address, Bostick stressed the importance of developing a collaborative approach to addressing sea-level rise . “The only way to solve tough challenges is to work together,” he said . A MORE REALISTIC APPROACH TO RISK Bostick noted that the key to any successful solution is to leave behind old ways of thinking about risk . In the past, “The only way to solve tough engineers evaluated threats, determined vulnerabilities, challenges is to work together.” and assessed consequences with the idea of building infrastructure to resist extreme forces . The problem with this approach, he noted, is that it is impossible to Bermingham P fully predict the future . “Inevitably, something h: Phili P 2 SECURING PROSPERITY IN THE COASTAL ZONE 2018 VASEM SUMMIT REPORT Photogra is going to come along that will defeat the measures we grade that the American Society of Civil Engineers gave to put in place,” he said . “A better approach is to create U .S . infrastructure as a whole was a D+ . infrastructure systems that are resilient to disasters . You The consequence of insufficient funding was want to plan, absorb, recover, and adapt ”. abundantly clear in New Jersey in the aftermath of These risk management solutions are inherently Hurricane Sandy . Of the USACE projects along its multidimensional . That was one of the major lessons 137 miles of coastline, 15 were simply authorized, nine highlighted in the North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive had funding appropriated, and just nine were either under Study (NACCS), which USACE published in response to construction or completed . These last nine locations Hurricane Sandy . NACCS brought together experts from received minimal damage from the superstorm . federal, state, and local government agencies, as well as non-governmental organizations and academia, to assess the flood risks facing coastal communities and VIRGINIA IS OUT IN FRONT ecosystems and collaboratively develop a coastal storm risk management framework to address increasing risks . In concluding his presentation, Bostick returned to his NACCS advocates a systems approach to resilience . theme of Virginia’s leadership in managing the risk of “There are many options that can be applied in various rising seas . Bostick cited early efforts of the Virginia Silver combinations depending on circumstances,” Bostick Jackets team, which brings together staff from Virginia’s said . “They can include reefs and submerged aquatic Departments of Emergency Management, Conservation vegetation, drainage improvements, beach restoration and Recreation, and Environmental Quality with and groins, seawalls and floodwalls, and acquisition and representatives of the Natural Resources Conservation relocation of structures ”. Service, Federal Emergency Management Agency, National Weather Service, and U .S . Geological Survey . Since its founding in 2010, the Silver Jackets initiative has THE HUMAN ELEMENT IN been effective in facilitating communication, sharing COASTAL STORM RISK MANAGEMENT information, and providing a single source for local and state governments to obtain information and identify Bostick reminded the audience that infrastructure is solutions to reduce flood hazards . not the only component to successful coastal storm risk Bostick also highlighted efforts undertaken by the City management . It is vital, he said, to involve stakeholders of Norfolk . He noted that Norfolk’s position as a global from the start when developing a plan and to make sure security hub and international trading nexus made it they understand its implications . Typically, coastal risk imperative that it adopt a resiliency plan . He emphasized assessments have not involved stakeholders, thereby his point by offering several facts and statistics . Among producing very frustrated stakeholders after disasters other facilities, Norfolk is home to the world’s largest naval occur . For instance, after Hurricane Sandy, many people station and NATO’s North American Headquarters . Naval felt angered and betrayed . Station Norfolk has 12 .4 miles of waterfront and employs Bostick also noted that it is critical to be responsive 21,000 civilian government employees and contractors in to the political dimensions of disaster recovery, a lesson addition to the 46,000 members of the military on ship and underscored by his interactions with Mayor Michael ashore . It is also home to Norfolk International Terminals, Bloomberg in New York City after Hurricane Sandy . “Our job part of the Port of Virginia . is to make sure elected decision-makers know we are here Bostick praised Norfolk for being one of the first to support them and work as part of their team,” he said . Rockefeller Foundation Resilient Cities and the third city in the United States to launch a citywide resilience strategy . He also expressed his confidence that its Coastal Storm Risk THE FUNDING CONSTRAINT Management Plan, which calls for more than $1 .7 billion in projects to protect the city from inundation during large Adding a note of realism, Bostick pointed out that the coastal storm events, would be authorized by Congress . The ability to effectively implement the framework laid out plan assumes a 1 .25-foot rise in sea level between 2026 and in NACCS and similar documents is often constrained 2075