Breaking the Cycle of Failed Negotiations in Yemen by Nadwa Al-Dawsari May 2017 SUMMARY • Yemen’s conflict is complex and multi-faceted. On the surface, it is a power struggle among the political elite, but it is also driven by long-term frustration with the ruling elite’s corruption at the expense and marginalization of the majority of the Yemeni population. These grievances drove the 2011 youth uprising, have helped fuel the ongoing war, and must be addressed to bring lasting peace. • More than two years of UN-led negotiations to end Yemen’s war have failed. This failure is a result of an elite dominated process between opposing sides unwilling to settle their differences and concede power. To end the conflict and create a lasting peace, these talks must include representatives from all aggrieved regions and parties. • Peace talks should also include negotiations on the division of Yemen into federal regions that establish a fair balance of power and resources and address key regional grievances that have helped fuel conflict. • Reaching political agreement will take time. It is critical in the interim to work with government institutions at the local level to provide a basic level of governance and stability. Strengthening local government will help defuse some tension, build trust in national political negotiation processes, give local actors a sense of ownership and responsibility, and help restore faith in nonviolent political processes. INTRODUCTION than 17 million people—over 60 percent of he war in Yemen has killed at least 10,000 Yemen’s population—are at immediate risk people and injured 43,000, including of famine.1 After more than two years of T3,200 children. It has displaced millions fighting, the warring parties have achieved from their homes and destroyed important no lasting territorial gains or any clear civilian infrastructure, including thousands political advantage. The two forces driving of medical and educational facilities. United this war are those aligned with the Houthis Nations agencies recently warned that more and former President Ali Abdallah Saleh, 1 Robbie Gramer, “U.N. Warns Yemen Could be on Brink of Famine,” Foreign Policy, March 15, 2017, http://foreignpolicy. POLICY BRIEF POLICY com/2017/03/15/yemen-famine-humanitarian-relief-conflict-food-insecurity-casualties-of-conflict-saudi-led-intervention/ PROJECT ON MIDDLE EAST DEMOCRACY BREAKING THE CYCLE OF FAILED NEGOTIATIONS IN YEMEN and those forces allied with the government to address additional underlying issues that of President Abdrabbo Mansour Hadi. Each initially gave rise to the unrest. side enjoys external support. Hadi’s forces have the military support of a coalition led by Saudi BACKGROUND TO THE WAR Arabia and the United Arab Emirates and backed by the United States, while the Houthi- In February 2011, Yemeni youth took to Saleh forces are backed by Iran. the streets to demand political change from President Ali Abdallah Saleh’s corrupt To end the stalemate, the Trump administration authoritarian rule. Political tension escalated has suggested that it will increase the U.S. when key military and political leaders from weapons support to the Saudi Arabia-led Saleh’s government defected to back the youth coalition to defeat the Houthi-Saleh forces, uprising. Concerned with the government’s push back against Iran’s influence in Yemen, collapse, international actors including Gulf and restore Hadi’s government to power.2 countries and the United States, stepped in to Recent media reports indicate that the try to resolve the situation. After months of administration2 is considering the provision negotiations and shuttle diplomacy between of additional military support to help United Saleh and opposition parties, an ambitious yet Arab Emirates forces lead an effort to ultimately flawed deal brokered by the Gulf retake the key seaport of Hodeida, the main Cooperation Council (GCC), known as the humanitarian aid receiving port functioning GCC Initiative, was signed by Saleh and the in Yemen, from Houthi control.3 Islah-led opposition coalition known as the Joint Meeting Parties (JMP) on November 23, While many agree the war must end, this paper 2011. The Initiative outlined a two-year political argues this will only be achievable through a transition process in which Saleh was to political solution. It is encouraging that U.S. relinquish power to his vice president Abdrabbo Secretary of Defense James Mattis recently said Mansour Hadi, and a new power sharing while in Saudi Arabia “our main objective is to government divided between Saleh’s ruling reach negotiations sponsored by the United party the General People’s Congress (GPC) and Nations to find a political solution as soon the JMP was formed.5 Hadi was then elected as possible,”4 but this paper argues that the President in uncontested elections on February United Nations–led negotiations are flawed 21, 2012. A formal dialogue process known and will not succeed unless they are broadened as the National Dialogue Conference (NDC) 2 In early February 2017, former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn described the Houthis as one of Iran’s proxy terrorist groups. The Trump administration recently approved major weapons packages to Saudi Arabia previously suspended under the Obama administration because of high civilian casualties already caused by the Saudi Arabia-led coalition air strikes in Yemen. Discussions within the Trump administration include supporting a proposal by the United Arab Emirates, a member of the coalition, to retake the key Red Sea port of Hodeida from the Houthis. See Karen DeYoung and Missy Ryan, “Trump administration weighs deeper involvement in Yemen war,” The Washington Post, March 26, 2017, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/trump-administration-weighs-deeper- involvement-in-yemen-war/2017/03/26/b81eecd8-0e49-11e7-9d5a-a83e627dc120_story.html?utm_term=.d34b88b43513 3 John Hudson and Paul McLeod, “Pentagon Clashes With Civilian Aid Workers Over Planned Military Assault In Yemen,” BuzzFeed News, April 17, 2017, https://www.buzzfeed.com/johnhudson/pentagon-clashes-with-civilian-aid-workers-over-planned?utm_term=. bfGmp5yJ6#.fg8rYyGL0. The closure of the seaport would precipitate famine according to international relief organizations such as Oxfam, because 70 percent of Yemen’s food comes through Hodeida. See Lisa Rutherford, “Oxfam warns possible attack on Yemen’s Hodeidah port will push country into near certain famine,” Oxfam, March 31, 2017, http://www.oxfam.org.uk/blogs/2017/03/oxfam- warns-possible-attack-on-yemen-hodeidah-port-will-push-country-into-near-certain-famine 4 “Mattis visits Saudi Arabia, promises to put an end to ‘Iranian’ Houthi rockets,” Al Arabiya, April 18, 2017, http://english.alarabiya.net/ en/News/gulf/2017/04/18/Mattis-visits-Saudi-Arabia-promises-to-put-an-end-to-Iranian-Houthi-rockets.html 5 The Joint Meeting Party (JMP) includes: Islah, Yemeni Socialist Party, Nasserite Party, Baath Party, Al-Haq, September Congregation, and Union of Yemeni Popular Forces. 2 pomed.org BREAKING THE CYCLE OF FAILED NEGOTIATIONS IN YEMEN The six federal regions include 1) Azal region which includes the governorates of Sanaa, Amran, Dhamar, and Saada, in addition to the capital city of Sanaa; 2) Al-Janad region which includes Taiz and Ibb governorates; 3) Saba region which includes Mareb, Al-Jawf, and Baydha governorates; 4) Aden region which includes Aden, Lahj, Abyan, and Dhalee governorates; 5) Hadramout region which includes Hadramout, Shabwa, and Mahra governorates; and 6) Tihama region which includes Hodeida, Raima, Mahwit, and Hajja governorates. was to convene and identify the drivers of the including the JMP opposition coalition and 2011 uprising, determine a political roadmap participants from central and eastern Yemen. for Yemen, and draft a new constitution for popular approval via a referendum. While Meanwhile, growing frustration with the pace each of these steps were put into motion under of the transition and the new government the GCC Initiative, the National Dialogue led led to fierce competition between the former to agreement on a new federal system but ruling party (GPC) and the main opposition disagreement on the specific division of the party (JMP). In September 2014, political federal regions.6 A proposal put forward by a tension turned into armed conflict when the presidentially appointed committee further Houthis (who had been steadily expanding escalated tensions with the details of its their territorial control in Hajja and Amran proposed division of Yemen into six federal north of Sanaa) joined forces with Saleh (who regions. TheHirak movement for southern had been allowed to remain in Yemen and still independence and the Houthis both rejected controlled much of Yemen’s armed forces) and the proposal, as they saw it as undermining seized control of Sanaa. They put President their own distinct interests and national vision. Hadi and his cabinet under house arrest, which Other constituencies welcomed the proposal, eventually resulted in Hadi’s resignation and 6 For more see Charles Schmitz, “Yemen’s National Dialogue,” Middle East Institute, February, 2014, http://www.mei.edu/sites/default/ files/publications/Charles%20Schmitz%20Policy%20Paper.pdf 3 pomed.org BREAKING THE CYCLE OF FAILED NEGOTIATIONS IN YEMEN CHART 1. TIMELINE OF RECENT POLITICAL EVENTS, 2010-2017 escape to Aden.7 The violence escalated when By summer 2015, and with help from the Houthi and Saleh forces pushed into the eastern Saudi-led coalition, Hadi and local forces and central governorates of Baydha, Mareb, retook the southern governorates of Aden, and Taiz, and the southern governorates of Abyan, Dhalee, Lahj and most of the eastern Aden, Lahj, Abyan and Dhalee. governorate of Mareb. But the Houthi-Saleh coalition remained in control of Sanaa and On March 25, 2015, Hadi was again forced most parts of northern Yemen, while Taiz, to flee after his palace in Aden was attacked Baydha, and the Serwah district east of Mareb by Saleh-controlled Yemeni air force jets.