2 END USER ROADMAPS THE ELECTRONICS MARKET In 1996, the total electronics systems market was about $850 billion, and the semiconductor market was $140 billion. By the year 2001, the semiconductor market is expected to double while electronic equipment sales reach $1.3 trillion. This trend is shown in Figure 2-1. 1,600 390 400 1,545 350 1,400 1,380 315 1992-2002 1,243 300 Worldwide Electronic 1,200 Equipment Sales 1,120 CAGR = 10% 256 250 1,010 1,000 920 210 200 851 (Billions of Dollars) (Billions of Dollars) 800 800 175 1992-2002 701 150 153 150 Worldwide Semiconductor 633 Worldwide Electronic Equipment Sales 140 Production Value* 585 CAGR = 19% Worldwide Semiconductor Production Value 600 110 100 85 68 400 50 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Year Percent 11.6 13.4 15.7 19.1 16.516.3 17.3 18.820.5 22.2 25.2 Semiconductor *Including captive "if sold" value. Source: ICE, "Roadmaps of Packaging Technology" 11082AD Figure 2-1. Semiconductor and Electronic Equipment Sales Trends (1992-2001) INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION 2-1 End User Roadmaps 1996 TOTAL MERCHANT Of the total semiconductor market, SEMICONDUCTOR USAGE the top three categories, making up Auto Military <1% a total of 83% of the market are com- Industrial 6% 11% puters (50%), communications (15%) and consumer electronics (18%). Computer The actual breakdown is shown in Communications $135B 15% 50% Figure 2-2. These three areas are Consumer also expected to at least maintain 18% their market share, if not grow, through the end of the century. By YEAR 2001 MARKET VALUES the year 2001, these three market segments will represent over a one Packaging Market Semiconductor (@20%) trillion dollar opportunity, and the Computers $175B $35B corresponding market for electronic Communications $53B $11B packaging will exceed $60 billion. It Consumer $39B $8B is not coincidence that these three 84% of the industry $267B $53B 100% of the industry $316B $63B segments have had, and will con- Source: ICE, "Roadmaps of Packaging Technology" 21580A tinue to have a profound impact on the directions for future semicon- Figure 2-2. A Top-Down Estimate of the ductor and packaging technology. Year 2001 Packaging Market The computer industry has driven the packaging industry for the past 20 years, first to support mainframes, and recently to support PCs. High pin count ceramic packages, high density MCMs, 50 layer circuit boards and heroic thermal management schemes were the response for high end computers in the 1980s. Low cost PQFP (plastic quad flat pack) and PPGA (plastic pin grid array) packages, SOP (small outline packages) and low cost circuit boards were the response to PCs in the early 1990s. Next generation computers are driving BGAs (ball grid array), CSPs (chip scale packages), MCPs (multichip packages), and fine line substrates. The telecom industry has leveraged the same technology as the computer industry. There is only a slight difference between a circuit board used for a telecom or computer application. The ASICs used for telecom applications have slightly fewer I/Os, and do not push the envelope of perfor- mance as much as for workstations. Both next generation telecom and computer applications will require digital clocks in the 200MHz to 400MHz range and the requirements for good high speed design will be the same. The consumer market, especially the portable market is undergoing the most rapid and revolu- tionary growth. The need for low cost, small size and low power is driving TSOPs (thin small out- line packages), COB (chip on board), and direct chip attach, with thin profile, fine line substrates, and CSP. 2-2 INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION End User Roadmaps MATCHING PACKAGING TECHNOLOGY AND APPLICATION Selecting the packaging technology to use to implement a product is a matter of balancing a number of trade offs to find the optimum comfort level. The first order issues to balance are: ¥ system cost ¥ system size ¥ system power consumption ¥ performance: chip integration level ¥ performance: clock frequency ¥ performance: pin count of each die ¥ memory size ¥ thermal management ¥ reliability ¥ time to market, volume, dollars ¥ technical risk Though the categories of concern are the same for each type of electronic product, the weigh- ing of each element is very different. For example, the relative importance of these factors is shown in Figure 2-3 for a super computer and a palm top. They share virtually no common important concern. High end Concern Palm Top Computers Cost High Constrained low Size High Constrained low Power consumption High Constrained low Performance High Targeted low Thermal management High Low Reliability High Low Time to market 2-5 years 6-12 months Technical risk High Low Source: ICE, "Roadmaps of Packaging Technology" 21603 Figure 2-3. System Target Values Between High End and Low End Products Each product category has a different relative importance for each of these elements, making gen- eralizations in the electronics industry difficult. What is of value to a palm top application may not be important to a desktop personal computer (PC). This will ultimately result in the prolifer- ation of a number of niche markets for packaging technologies, rather than one universal solution. The important task will be determining the optimum packaging technologies for each application. INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION 2-3 End User Roadmaps TIME TO MARKET The entire electronics market is accelerating the pace at which products are introduced. Competition between vendors to fill the vacuum in so many new computer, consumer and tele- com applications pushes the limits of time to market for new products. The network computer (NC) is a good example. It was first introduced as a concept in early Spring 1996. Products were on the market from selected vendors within six months. The design cycle time for a workstation is 18 months. The cycle time for a PC is 9-12 months. The entire lifetime for a PC is only two years. This is dominated by the rapid rate of change for the microprocessors. Figure 2-4, shows the product life cycle for the Intel microprocessor families. Every two years or less, an old generation completely dies out and a new generation begins a high volume ramp. 286 386 486 Pentium Pentium Pro P7 Units Shipped (millions) '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 Year Source: Intel/ICE, "Roadmaps of Packaging Technology" 22589 Figure 2-4. Product Lifecycle for Intel Processors Within a product family, there is considerable pressures to improve the price/performance, again driven by the silicon technology. Figure 2-5 shows the price decline over a 1 year period for a 133MHz Pentium, from $935 to $257. This saving is transferred to the customer. This pattern transcends all consumer products. Portable hand held PDAs have a design cycle of 6-9 months and are obsolete in one year. As the expectations continue to build in the computer, consumer and telecom markets for rapid change to meet the new needs, the product design cycle times and the product life times will continually shrink. 2-4 INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION End User Roadmaps 1,000 $935* 900 800 700 600 500 Dollars 400 300 $257 200 100 0 June Aug. Nov. Feb. May 1995 1996 * Pentium 133MHz microprocessor; price per chip based on large volume purchases. Source: ICE, "Roadmaps of Packaging Technology" 21608 Figure 2-5. Pentium Processor* Price Decline ÒKILLERÓ APPLICATIONS AND ELECTRONIC DEVICES Electronic devices are merely tools that can be used to manipulate information, having no intrinsic value in and of themselves. It is only through the value of the information content and application that the technology and the device has value. Often, there is one application in particular that suddenly opens up the value of an electronic device. This application has been popularly termed a Òkiller appÓ. Having a killer app will help assure the success of a new device, component or tool. It is widely believed that Visicalc, the first spreadsheet, designed to run on the early IBM personal computers, was a killer app for PCs. It completely changed the way accounting and forecasting was done. Anyone who ever did bookkeeping, created a forecast or completed a profit and loss statement had to have a spreadsheet and a PC to run it on. Word processing was another early killer app for computers. It was primarily responsible for obsoleting typewriters. Desktop pub- lishing was an early killer app for the first Macintosh computer and laser printer combination. Killer apps will continue to have a profound impact on electronic products in the three markets: computers, communications and consumers, with considerable overlap. INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION 2-5 End User Roadmaps Killer Applications and High End Computers At the high end of computer usage, the current applications of scientific or engineering tasks involving floating point intensive calculations, or database and transaction operations will con- tinue, fueling the need for higher and higher performance. The information processing needs for some common functions is shown in Figure 2-6. 1010 Simultation of Catalysts 109 Real Time Airplane Simulation 108 Brain Activity (?) 107 Stuctural Biology 106 Pharmaceutical Design 105 72 hour Weather Forecasting in Real Time 104 Simple Turbulent Flow (1 Day) 1,000 Real Time Image Processing 100 Real Time Translation 10 Real Time Transcription 1 Politician Brain Activity (?) 0.1 Transparent Word Processing 0.01 Arithmetic In Real Time 0.001 Watch Timing Functions Source: ICE, "Roadmaps of Packaging Technology" 21605 Figure 2-6. MIPS Ratings of Various Applications Killer Applications and Mid Range Computers For the mid range computer, commonly termed server, there are two killer apps that will drive the need for higher performance and ever more capable servers.