Figure 1.1: Estimated population of Scotland, actual and projected1, 1951-2037 6,000 2014 5,000 4,000 Actual Projected 1 3,000 Persons (1,000s) 2,000 1,000 0 1951 1955 1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019 2023 2027 2031 2035 Footnote Year at 30 June 1) 2012-based projections. © Crown Copyright 2015 Figure 1.2: Natural change1 and net migration2, 1951-2014 50 40 Natural change1 30 20 10 0 Persons (1,000s)Persons -10 -20 -30 Net migration2 -40 -50 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 Footnotes 1) Births minus deaths. 2) Inward minus outward migration. Year © Crown Copyright 2015 Figure 1.3: Estimated population by age and sex, 30 June 2014 90+ 84 Males Females 78 72 66 60 54 48 Age 42 36 30 24 18 12 6 0 50 40 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 40 50 Persons (1,000s) © Crown Copyright 2015 Figure 1.4: The changing age structure of Scotland’s population, 2004-2014 1,400 +13% -11% 1,200 2004 +10% 2014 1,000 -3% +17% 800 Persons (1,000s)Persons 600 +17% 400 200 0 0-15 16-29 30-44 45-59 60-74 75 + Age group © Crown Copyright 2015 Figure 1.6: Births and deaths, actual1 and projected2, Scotland, 1951-2037 120 2012 100 Births Deaths 80 60 Persons (1,000s)Persons 40 Actual1 Projected2 20 0 1951 1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 Footnotes 1) Calendar year. Year 2) 2012 based projections, data shown for mid-year. © Crown Copyright 2015 Figure 1.7: The projected1 percentage change in age structure of Scotland’s population, 2012-2037 100% 86% 80% 60% 40% 37% Percentage change Percentage 20% 5% 0% -4% -2% -6% -20% 0-15 16-29 30-49 50-64 65-74 75+ Footnote Age Group 1) 2012-based projections. © Crown Copyright 2015 Figure 1.8: Projected dependency ratios1 (per 1,000 working population), 2012-2037 800 All Dependants 700 600 500 Pensionable Age 400 (perpopulation) workingage 1,000 1 300 Children 200 100 Dependency ratio Dependency 0 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 Footnote Year at 30 June 1) 2012-based projections. © Crown Copyright 2015 © Crown Copyright 2015 Copyright © Crown Source: Officefor National Statistics (ONS) and (UK constituentcountries) and Eurostat Percentage change -40% -20% 20% 40% 60% 80% 0% Lithuania Latvia Figure 1.9: Projected percentage population change in selected European countries European selectedin change population percentageProjected1.9: Figure Bulgaria Greece Estonia Portugal Romania Poland Spain Slovakia Germany Hungary Slovenia . Ireland EU27 Czech Republic 2012 Netherlands - Wales 2037 SCOTLAND Malta Northern Ireland Cyprus Italy France Finland Denmark Austria UK England Iceland Sweden Belgium Switzerland Norway Luxembourg Figure 2.1: Births and deaths, Scotland 1951-2014 120 Births Deaths 100 80 60 Persons (1,000s)Persons 40 20 0 1951 1955 1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 20112014 Year © Crown Copyright 2015 Figure 2.2: Estimated female population aged 15-44 and general fertility rate (GFR), Scotland, 1951 - 2014 1,400 120 Females aged 15-44 GFR (live births per 1,000 women aged 15-44) 1,200 100 1,000 80 44 (1,000s)44 - 800 60 GFR 600 40 400 Women aged 15 aged Women 20 200 0 0 1951 1955 1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 20112014 Year © Crown Copyright 2015 Figure 2.3: Live births per 1,000 women, by age of mother, Scotland, 1951-2014 250 15-19 20-24 25-29 200 30-34 35-39 40-44 150 Fertility rate Fertility 100 50 0 1951 1955 1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 20112014 Year © Crown Copyright 2015 Figure 2.4: Live births per 1,000 women, by age, selected years 250 1951 1964 1977 200 1991 2014 150 Fertility rate Fertility 100 50 0 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 Footnote 1 1) The rate for age 15 includes births at younger ages and for age 44 Age of mother includes births at older ages. © Crown Copyright 2015 Figure 2.5: Total fertility rate, Scotland, 1951-2014 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 Total fertility rate fertility Total 1.0 0.5 0.0 1951 1955 1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2014 Year © Crown Copyright 2015 Figure 2.6: Cumulative cohort fertility rate for selected birth cohorts, Scotland 2.5 2.0 1.5 1951 1956 1961 1.0 1966 1971 Cumulative cohort fertility rate fertility cohort Cumulative 1976 0.5 1981 1986 0.0 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 Age © Crown Copyright 2015 Figure 2.7: Total fertility rates, UK countries, 1971-2014 3.5 England Wales 3.0 Scotland Northern Ireland 2.5 2.0 Total fertility rate fertility Total 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2014 Year © Crown Copyright 2015 Figure 3.1: Average age at death, selected causes, Scotland, 1978-2014 90 All causes 88 Stroke 86 Ischaemic heart disease 84 Cancer 82 80 78 76 74 72 Average age Average 70 68 66 64 62 60 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 Year © Crown Copyright 2015 Figure 3.2: Age specific mortality rates as a proportion of 1981 rate, 1981-2014, males 120 100 80 60 Percentage 40 45-64 20 65-74 75+ 0 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 Year © Crown Copyright 2015 Figure 3.2: Age specific mortality rates as a proportion of 1981 rate, 1981-2014, females 120 100 80 60 Percentage 40 45-64 20 65-74 75+ 0 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 Year © Crown Copyright 2015 Figure 3.3: Age standardised1 mortality rates, by selected cause and sex, 2013 Males 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 European Ages European Ages Standardised per Rates 100,000 population 0 Cancer Ischaemic heart disease Cerebrovascular disease Scotland Wales England Northern Ireland Footnote 1) European Ages Standardised Rates (EASRs). These age standardised mortality rates are based on the 2013 version of the European Standard Population. © Crown Copyright 2015 Figure 3.3: Age standardised1 mortality rates, by selected cause and sex, 2013 400 Females 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 European Ages European Ages Standardised per Rates 100, population 000 0 Cancer Ischaemic heart disease Cerebrovascular disease Scotland Wales England Northern Ireland Footnote 1) European Ages Standardised Rates (EASRs). These age standardised mortality rates are based on the 2013 version of the European Standard Population. © Crown Copyright 2015 Figure 4.1: Expectation of life at birth1, Scotland, 1981-2037 90 2013 80 70 60 50 Age 40 Actual Projected 30 20 Females 10 Males 0 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 2029 2033 2037 Year Footnote 1) Figures to 2013 are based on three years of data. For example 2013 figure uses data for 2012-2014. Figures after 2013 are projected single year life expectancies, Office for National Statistics (ONS). Source: Figures to 2013 are from National Life Tables produced by the ONS. © Crown Copyright 2015 Figure 4.2a: Life expectancy at birth in selected countries, 1980-1982 to 2011-2013, males Sweden United Kingdom Northern Ireland Lithuania England Wales Scotland 80 78 76 74 72 70 68 Age 66 64 62 60 58 560 1980-82 1981-83 1982-84 1983-85 1984-86 1985-87 1986-88 1987-89 1988-90 1989-91 1990-92 1991-93 1992-94 1993-95 1994-96 1995-97 1996-98 1997-99 1998-00 1999-01 2000-02 2001-03 2002-04 2003-05 2004-06 2005-07 2006-08 2007-09 2008-10 2009-11 2010-12 2011-13 Source: Office for National Statistics and Eurostat (tps00025) Year © Crown Copyright 2015 © Crown Copyright 2015 Copyright © Crown Source: Officefor National Statisticsand Eurostat(tps00025) Age 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 0 Figure 4.2b: Life expectancy at birth in selected countries, 1980 countries, in selectedbirth at expectancy Life4.2b: Figure 1980-82 1981-83 Spain 1982-84 1983-85 1984-86 United Kingdom United 1985-87 1986-88 1987-89 1988-90 1989-91 1990-92 1991-93 Ireland Northern 1992-94 1993-95 1994-96 Year 1995-97 1996-98 1997-99 Romania 1998-00 1999-01 - 2000-02 to 2011 1982 2001-03 England 2002-04 2003-05 2004-06 - 2013, females 2013, 2005-07 Wales 2006-08 2007-09 2008-10 2009-11 Scotland 2010-12 2011-13 Figure 4.3: Life expectancy at birth, 95 per cent confidence intervals (CI)1 for council areas, 2011-2013 (males and females) SCOTLAND2 SCOTLAND2 East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire Aberdeenshire Perth & Kinross Scottish Borders Angus East Lothian Stirling Argyll & Bute Dumfries & Galloway Edinburgh, City of Moray Orkney Islands Highland MALE FEMALE South Ayrshire West Lothian Fife Aberdeen City Midlothian Shetland Islands Falkirk Clackmannanshire South Lanarkshire Eilean Siar North Ayrshire Renfrewshire East Ayrshire North Lanarkshire Dundee City Inverclyde West Dunbartonshire Glasgow City 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 Years Footnote 1) Life expectancy at birth is an estimate which is subject to a margin of error.