WOLFSON ECONOMICS PRIZE 2014 Charthills Green – a Garden City in the Garden of England. Chris Blundell Final submission, August 2014 0 © Charthills Green Ltd Photograph taken by author in area adjoining proposed development of SE Maidstone Garden City: Wolfson Economics Prize MMXIV Secondary Submission: Chris Blundell Contents Tables ............................................................................................................................ iii Figures ............................................................................................................................ iv Abbreviations .................................................................................................................. vi 1. Non-Technical Summary .............................................................................................. 2 2. Introduction. ................................................................................................................ 10 3. Preparing for the garden city of the future. .............................................................. 14 3.1. The need for new solutions. .............................................................................. 14 3.2. Garden City principles revisited......................................................................... 14 3.3. Selecting the right location for a new garden city. ............................................. 15 3.4. Understanding the drivers and the markets ...................................................... 16 3.5. Creating places people value ............................................................................ 17 3.6. The sustainable solution ................................................................................... 18 4. A portrait of Charthills Green .................................................................................... 25 4.1. The site ............................................................................................................. 26 4.2. The Planning context. ....................................................................................... 27 4.3. Transport and connectivity ................................................................................ 28 4.4. Market analysis ................................................................................................. 30 4.5. Infrastructure. .................................................................................................... 34 4.6. A working community. ....................................................................................... 35 4.7. Design principles. .............................................................................................. 37 4.8. Adding value to the local area. .......................................................................... 46 4.9. A sustainable place. .......................................................................................... 47 4.10. Choice, diversity and affordability. .................................................................... 50 4.11. Creating and sharing value. .............................................................................. 50 5. Funding and delivery. ................................................................................................. 54 5.1. The delivery model. ........................................................................................... 54 5.2. Securing the land. ............................................................................................. 58 5.3. Providing and funding the infrastructure............................................................ 60 5.4. Funding the housing .......................................................................................... 61 5.5. Local planning powers. ..................................................................................... 63 5.6. Undertaking the development. .......................................................................... 63 5.7. Demonstrating viability ...................................................................................... 64 5.7.1. Cost and value scenarios ............................................................................. 67 5.7.2. Base rate changes ....................................................................................... 68 5.7.3. New Homes Bonus ...................................................................................... 69 5.7.4. House price inflation relative to CPI ............................................................. 70 5.8. Risk mitigation and management ...................................................................... 72 i © Charthills Green Ltd Wolfson Economics Prize MMXIV Secondary Submission: Chris Blundell 6. Enduring quality and good governance. .................................................................. 75 6.1. Sustaining quality of place ................................................................................ 75 6.2. A Garden City Community Council.................................................................... 78 7. Hearts and Minds. ....................................................................................................... 81 7.1. Engaging. Listening. Consulting. ....................................................................... 83 7.2. The benefits of focussed investment ................................................................. 84 7.3. Fair Compensation for all .................................................................................. 84 7.4. A place where the good life is affordable .......................................................... 86 7.5. Boosting the local economy .............................................................................. 90 7.6. Shared investment in long term success. .......................................................... 93 7.7. Let the community decide. ................................................................................ 93 8. A Call to Action. .......................................................................................................... 97 9. Conclusions. ............................................................................................................. 101 Appendices ........................................................................................................................ 104 References ......................................................................................................................... 107 Bibliography ....................................................................................................................... 110 Appendix A: Summary of Recommendations .......................................................... 115 Appendix B: Garden City Principles ......................................................................... 118 Appendix C: Demographic Change .......................................................................... 119 Appendix D: Housing need and supply in England .................................................. 123 Appendix E: House Price movements ...................................................................... 124 Appendix F: Community Infrastructure planned. ...................................................... 127 Appendix G: 10 Point Sustainability Action Plan ...................................................... 128 Appendix H: PWLB Finance rates ............................................................................ 130 Appendix I: Project Plan: Key dates and dependencies ......................................... 131 Appendix J: Scenario Results – Costs and values .................................................. 133 Appendix K: Scenario Results – Base Rate changes .............................................. 134 Appendix L: Scenario Results – New Homes Bonus .............................................. 135 Appendix M: Scenario Results – House Price movements relative to CPI .............. 136 Appendix P: Prospectus: A Garden Suburb for the Garden of England ................. 139 Notes ................................................................................................................................... 140 ii © Charthills Green Ltd Wolfson Economics Prize MMXIV Secondary Submission: Chris Blundell Tables Table 1: Costs above Part L1A for achieving the Zero Carbon Homes Standard ............ 21 Table 2: Age profile of Maidstone population – projections 2012-2037 ........................... 33 Table 3: Base case and effect of cost and value factors on financial results ................... 68 Table 4: Effect of Base rate changes on financial results ................................................ 69 Table 5: Effect of New Homes Bonus on financial results ................................................ 70 Table 6: Scenario results – Effect of House Price Inflation differential to CPI on financial results...................................................................................................72 Table 7: Proposed division of responsibility for services provision in Charthills Green .................................................................................................................76 Table 8: Council Tax revenue in Charthills Green ............................................................ 77 Table 9: Illustrative governance of GCCC ........................................................................78 Table 10: Housing costs in Charthills Green .....................................................................