Chapter 4 Wind Vision: A New Era for Wind Power in the United States 1 Table of Contents Message from the Director ..................................................................................................................................... xiii Acronyms .......................................................................................................................................................................xv Executive Summary: Overview ...........................................................................................................................xxiii Contents of Table Executive Summary: Key Chapter Findings ..................................................................................................xxvii ES.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................................................xxvii ES.1.1 Project Perspective and Approach ......................................................................................................................xxvii ES.1.2 Understanding the Future Potential for Wind Power ....................................................................................xxix ES.1.3 Defining a Credible Scenario to Calculate Costs, Benefits, and Other Impacts .....................................xxxi ES.2 State of the Wind Industry: Recent Progress, Status and Emerging Trends ................................................xxxiv ES.2.1 Wind Power Markets and Economics ................................................................................................................xxxv ES.2.2 National Social and Economic Impacts of Wind ..........................................................................................xxxvi ES.2.3 Wind Technology, Manufacturing, and Logistics .........................................................................................xxxvii ES.2.4 Wind Integration and Delivery .......................................................................................................................xxxviii ES.2.5 Wind Deployment: Siting, Regulation, and Collaboration ........................................................................xxxix ES.3 Costs, Benefits, and Other Impacts of the Study Scenario ..................................................................................... xl ES.3.1 Wind Industry and Electric Sector Impacts .......................................................................................................... xl ES.3.2 Costs of the Wind Vision Study Scenario ............................................................................................................ xlv ES.3.3 Benefits of theStudy Scenario ............................................................................................................................. xlvi ES.3.4 Additional Impacts Associated with the Study Scenario .............................................................................. xlix ES.3.5 Impacts Specific to Offshore and Distributed Wind ...........................................................................................li ES.4 The Wind Vision Roadmap: A Pathway Forward ..........................................................................................................li ES.4.1 Core Roadmap Actions ................................................................................................................................................lii ES.4.2 Risk of Inaction ............................................................................................................................................................ lvi ES.5 Conclusions ........................................................................................................................................................................... lvi ES.5.1 The Opportunity ........................................................................................................................................................... lvi ES.5.2 The Challenge ............................................................................................................................................................. lvii ES.5.3 Moving Forward ......................................................................................................................................................... lvii 1 Introduction to the Wind Vision ............................................................................................................................ 1 1.0 Wind Vision—Historical Context ........................................................................................................................................... 3 1.1 Key Trends Motivating the Wind Vision ..........................................................................................................................................6 1.1.1 Wind Business Evolution .................................................................................................................................................. 6 1.1.2 Electric Sector Evolution ................................................................................................................................................ 6 1.1.3 Wind Manufacturing Sector Impacts .......................................................................................................................... 7 1.1.4 Economic and Environmental Impacts ....................................................................................................................... 7 1.2 Understanding the Future Potential for Wind Power .................................................................................................... 8 1.3 Defining a Scenario for Calculating Costs, Benefits, and Other Impacts .................................................................11 1.4 Project Implementation .........................................................................................................................................................14 1.5 Report Organization ................................................................................................................................................................15 Chapter 1 References ......................................................................................................................................................................16 Table of Contents i 2 Wind Power in the United States .......................................................................................................................21 2.0 Introduction .............................................................................................................................................................................23 2.1 Wind Power Markets and Economics ................................................................................................................................26 2.1.1 Global Market Trends ......................................................................................................................................................26 2.1.2 Domestic Market Trends ............................................................................................................................................... 27 2.1.3 Domestic Cost and Pricing Trends ............................................................................................................................29 Table of Contents of Table 2.1.4 U.S. Electricity Supply and Demand ........................................................................................................................34 2.1.5 Market Drivers and Policy ............................................................................................................................................38 2.1.6 Conclusions ..................................................................................................................................................................... 40 2.2 Offshore Wind ....................................................................................................................................................................... 40 2.2.1 Status of the Offshore Industry ................................................................................................................................. 40 2.2.2 Offshore Costs .................................................................................................................................................................41 2.2.3 Offshore Deployment and Siting ..............................................................................................................................42 2.2.4 Conclusions .....................................................................................................................................................................46 2.3 Distributed Wind ....................................................................................................................................................................46 2.3.1 Conclusions ......................................................................................................................................................................49 2.4 Economic and Social Impacts of Wind for the Nation ................................................................................................50 2.4.1 GHG Emissions ................................................................................................................................................................50