1 US – Vietnam Relations 1975 – 2006: A Theoretical Approach Viet Tuan Nguyen Hanoi, Vietnam M.A., University of Virginia, 2008 M.A., Assumption University of Thailand, 2004 B.A., Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam, 1996 A Dissertation presented to the Graduate Faculty of the University of Virginia in Candidacy for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy Department of Politics University of Virginia August, 2014 ____________________________ ____________________________ ____________________________ ____________________________ ____________________________ 2 ABSTRACT This dissertation seeks to explore the rationale behind the three-decade long and bumpy process of normalization of US-Vietnam relations since the end of the Vietnam War in 1975 until the two countries reached full normalcy in 2006. The dissertation goes beyond conventional theories of international relations to explore the role of ideas (i.e. national beliefs about effective means for achieving interests, and the war mentality that vividly exists in both countries) and asymmetry of power in shaping the pace and scope of the normalization process. Through the employment of congruence and process tracing methods, the dissertation finds that the interaction of different ideas in the context of disparity of capabilities between the two countries, given the special history of the relationship, generated unique outcomes that cannot be reduced to strategic circumstances: the extreme sluggishness and politics of inattention on the US side, and the over-skepticism and frustration on the Vietnamese side throughout the process, all contributed to the prolonged and rough path to normalization. Such findings are confirmed by empirical evidence obtained in different periods of the normalization process. The dissertation concludes with an overall evaluation of competing theories in explaining the normalization process, followed by some implications and recommendations for future US-Vietnam relations. 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT 2 ABBREVIATIONS 5 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 7 INTRODUCTION 9 PART I 45 (US-Vietnam Relations 1975-1986) Chapter 1 48 Realist explanation for the frozen relationship Chapter 2 86 Ideas and Asymmetry: Legacies of the War PART II 127 (US-Vietnam relations 1986 – 1995) Chapter 3 129 Realist approach: an incremental path to normalization Chapter 4 152 Ideas and Asymmetry: Moving the goalposts and politics of inattention PART III 198 (US-Vietnam Relations 1995 – 2006) Chapter 5 200 Realist Approach: Geopolitical circumstances and the wavy path to normalcy Chapter 6 229 Ideas and Asymmetry: “Peaceful Evolution” and the war mentality: a 4 final push to normalcy CONCLUSION 259 APPENDIXES 271 BIBLIOGRAPHY 279 5 ABBREVIATIONS ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations AFTA ASEAN Free Trade Area APEC Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation ARF ASEAN Regional Forum BTA Bilateral Trade Agreement COC Code of Conduct (in the South China Sea) COMECON Council of Mutual Economic Assistance CGDK Coalition Government of Democratic Kampuchea CPV Communist Party of Vietnam DK Democratic Kampuchea IFIs International Financial Institutions IMF International Monetary Fund MOD Ministry of Defense (of Vietnam) MOFA Ministry of Foreign Affairs (of Vietnam) PRK People’s Republic of Kampuchea PNTR Permanent Normal Trade Relations POW/MIA Prisoners of War/ Missing in Action 6 TPP Trans-Pacific Partnership UN United Nations US United States U.S.S.R. Union of Soviet Socialist Republics WB World Bank WTO World Trade Organization 7 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I would like to extend my special gratitude to Professor Brantly Womack, my primary dissertation advisor, who has inspired me on the topic for the dissertation and continuously guided me through this project with invaluable assistance and endless support. His seminal work on power asymmetry and insightful expertise on Vietnamese politics have been of vital help to my research. I would also like to express my sincere thanks to other members of my dissertation committee. Professor Herman Schwartz not only provided me with useful feedback and superb instruction on research method that set the foundation for my research, but also financially enabled me to pursue the PhD program at UVa with a Politics Department’s teaching assistant fellowship for my first two years in the program. Professor Jeffrey Legro’s prominent theory of ideas and his systemic thinking offered me the essential guideline to approach the topic and sharpen my arguments for the dissertation, and his useful feedback proves to be of significant importance to my research. Professor Robert Sutter’s insightful knowledge of American politics and his wide connection with US government policy making elite not only provided me with useful suggestions for improvement of the dissertation but also with important contact information for data collection. Professor Brad Brown has been very helpful and encouraging with his useful comments and recommendations for my dissertation. I am also deeply indebted to the Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam for granting me sabbatical to write the dissertation, and to the Department of Politics of UVa, the Ford Foundation, the Malone & Gallatin Fellowships, the Buckner W. Clay Endowment for 8 Humanities, the Society of Fellows and the AHSS Summer Research Fund of UVa for financially sponsoring my research. I am sincerely thankful to Dr. Lewis Stern of the Department of Defense, Dr. Bill Nell of the Aspen Institute Congressional Program, and Dr. Gerald Warburg of the Frank Batten School for Leadership and Public Policy for their assistance with achieved documents and my interviews with high ranking American officials for data collection. I owe thanks to Professor Jeffery Jenkins, Cassandra Thomas, Bonnie Bragg, Sue Sherrill, Sharon Marsh, Anita Dodds, Daniel McDowell, Jon Shoup, Jonathan Forney, Ana Alves, Marina Omar for their kind assistance and support at the Department of Politics. I would also like to express my wholehearted gratitude to Professor Harry Harding and Professor Shirley Lin for being my second family here in the United States with their ever warm care, encouragement and companionship throughout my dissertation writing process. They have opened their house – Pavilion III of the Academical Village - to me and offered me the best of their support. Finally, I would like to thank my family in Vietnam for their ever warm support and encouragement, and their patience to wait for my completion of the dissertation and my return. 9 INTRODUCTION AND LITERATURE REVIEW “We shared the view that the Viet Nam-US relations have recorded enormous gains and are entering into a new stage of development. Today, Americans view Vietnam “as a country, not a war”. This perception probably explains why our bilateral relations have recently seen encouraging developments. The progress serves as a good start and a basis for the two countries to build a framework of relations commensurate with the vast potentials of both nations.” President Nguyen Minh Triet “The overall US-Vietnam relationship-economic, political, and cultural – is improving. US-Vietnam ties represent more than the Bilateral Trade Agreement and the sum of our direct and indirect official development assistance. We are well on the way toward putting together a network of linkages – humanitarian programs, academic and cultural exchanges, military and law enforcement cooperation, and dialogue on strategic issues – that represent truly normalized relations.1” President George W. Bush The above diplomatic statements are of a sort commonly seen in international relations among countries that share normal relations, but in the case of US-Vietnam relations such statements carry special significance. It took a hard period of thirty years for the leaders of United States and Vietnam to be able to address such statements to each other. Such statements served as the bench mark for full normalcy after the United States and 1 Memos of conversation between the two leaders June 22, 2007. 10 Vietnam have travelled through a very long and bumpy road since the Vietnam War, from being the “most dangerous enemy” of each other to “comprehensive partnership.” Not until twenty years after the Vietnam War ended in 1975 did the two countries initially establish diplomatic relations in 1995, and it took another long decade of ups and downs for them to reach to normalcy. The United States eventually granted Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) status for Vietnam in 2006 which was considered to be the benchmark for normalcy. Why did it take so long for the United States and Vietnam to normalize relations with each other? What explains this rough and lengthy normalization process? The dissertation aims to seek answers to these research questions. Looking back to history, the withdrawal of the last American combat units in March 1973 marked the end of the US military involvement in Vietnam. However, in many respects the conflict continued for another two decades. Immediately following the victory of North Vietnam in 1975 and the re-unification of the country, the United States extended the long-standing embargo against communist North Vietnam, which had been ratified under the Trading with the Enemy Act passed during the early years of the conflict, to encompass the entirety of the newly reunited Vietnam and at the same time halted credits and loans from monetary institutions such as the World Bank, International Monetary Fund and Asian Development Bank, and repeatedly vetoed Hanoi’s application for membership in the United Nations in 1975 and 1976. Confrontation