Liechtenstein Colloquium Report Petersberg Papers on Afghanistan and the Region Wolfgang Danspeckgruber Editor Volume IV 2009 Petersberg Papers on Afghanistan and the Region Wolfgang Danspeckgruber Editor Liechtenstein Colloquium Report Volume IV © 2009 The Trustees of Princeton University Produced and published by the Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination This report was made possible in part by a grant from the Carnegie Corporation of New York. The statements made and the views expressed herein are solely the responsibility of the contributing authors. Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs Princeton University Princeton, New Jersey 08544 USA Telephone: 609.258.6200 Facsimile: 609.258.5196 Electronic Mail: [email protected] Website: www.princeton.edu/lisd CONTENTS List of Abbreviations ........................................................................................................................... 4 Foreword Wolfgang Danspeckgruber .................................................................................................................. 6 Special Statements Opening Address Rangin Dadfar Spanta .................................................................................................................. 7 An Exit Strategy for Afghanistan Volker Stanzel .............................................................................................................................. 10 Special Statement Rita Kieber-Beck ......................................................................................................................... 14 Background and Summary Wolfgang Danspeckgruber ................................................................................................................ 15 Abstracts .............................................................................................................................................. 35 PART I - GOVERNANCE, RULE OF LAW, AND HUMAN RIGHTS Governance Issues in Afghanistan: Some Questions William Maley .............................................................................................................................. 44 The Rule of Law in Afghanistan: An Overview Ali Wardak .................................................................................................................................... 47 Historical Lessons on Rebuilding Afghanistan’s Judicial System Amin Tarzi ................................................................................................................................... 53 Implementing International Human Rights Law in Post-Confl ict Settings: Backlash Without Buy-In – The Afghanistan Experience Leanne Smith ............................................................................................................................... 62 Afghanistan: Elite Fragmentation Amin Saikal .................................................................................................................................. 66 Promoting Civil Society in Afghanistan: Deconstructing Some Myths Susanne Schmeidl ........................................................................................................................ 68 The Buddhas of Bamiyan: Past, Present, and Future Michael Jansen ............................................................................................................................. 75 PART II - SECURITY, INSECURITY, AND RECONCILIATION Some Thoughts on Security in Afghanistan Joseph Mohr ................................................................................................................................ 83 Dimensions of the Afghan Insurgency: Causes and Actors Thomas Ruttig ............................................................................................................................. 90 Negotiation, Reconciliation and Outreach: What Are the Options on the Table? Joseph Mohr ..............................................................................................................................103 PART III - ECONOMIC AND HUMAN DEVELOPMENT Aid Investment in Human Development in Afghanistan and Measuring Progress in Building Social and Institutional Capital Nipa Banerjee ............................................................................................................................117 Beyond Armed Stabilization in Afghanistan: Poverty and Unemployment Nematullah Bizhan ...................................................................................................................124 Railroads: Afghanistan’s Century Project Wolfgang Danspeckgruber, et al. ............................................................................................129 PART IV - AFGHANISTAN AND THE REGION Afghanistan and the Region Zahir Tanin ................................................................................................................................137 Afghanistan and Current Regional Tensions Mahmoud Saikal ........................................................................................................................140 Afghanistan’s Neighbors: Understanding Iranian, Chinese, Pakistani, and Indian Interests in Afghanistan Rani D. Mullen ...........................................................................................................................143 India in Afghanistan: What, Why, What If, and Why Not Varun Sahni ................................................................................................................................152 China in Afghanistan: Same Objective, Different Means Carol Wang .................................................................................................................................157 Central Asia and Afghanistan Robert Finn ................................................................................................................................164 2 Appendix I: Colloquium Summary .......................................................................................................175 Appendix II: Colloquium Participants ..................................................................................................184 Appendix III: LISD Publications on Afghanistan ..............................................................................188 Appendix IV: Additional References ....................................................................................................189 3 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ACSF Afghan Civil Society Forum ACSONP Afghan Civil Society Organizations for Peace ADB Asian Development Bank ADR Alternative Dispute Resolution AHDR Afghan Human Development Report AIHRC Afghan Independent Human Rights Commission ANA Afghan National Army ANAP Afghan National Auxiliary Police ANDS Afghanistan National Development Strategy ANP Afghan National Police ANSF Afghan National Security Forces ARMISH US Training Mission for the Army in Iran AWN Afghan Women’s Network CAREC Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation CDC Community Development Council CIDA Canadian International Development Agency CIS Commonwealth of Independent States CSHRN Civil Society Human Rights Network CSO Civil Society Organization CSTC-A Combined Security Transition Command – Afghanistan DAFA French Archeological Mission to Afghanistan DDR Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration DGFI Directorate General of Field Intelligence (Bangladesh) DIAG Disbandment of Illegal Armed Groups DSRSG Deputy Special Representative of the Secretary-General ECO Economic Cooperation Organization EUPOL European Union Police Mission in Afghanistan FATA Federally Administered Tribal Areas FCCS Foundation for Culture and Civil Society FDD Focused District Development G8 Group of Eight Industrialized Nations GENMISH US Training Mission for the Police and Gendarmerie in Iran HIG Hezb-e Islami of Gulbuddin HIYK Hezb-e Islami of Yunus Khalis HoO High Offi ce for Oversight ICOMOS International Council on Monuments and Sites IDLG Independent Directorate of Local Governance IDPs Internationally Displaced Persons IEA Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan IED Improvised Explosive Device IHRL International Human Rights Law IRI International Republican Institute 4 ISAF International Security Assistance Force ISI Inter-Service Intelligence Directorate (Pakistan) JCMB Joint Coordination and Monitoring Board JEMB Joint Electoral Management Body MDG Millennium Development Goal MOU Memorandum of Understanding NAPCE National Assembly and Provincial Council Election NDS National Directorate of Security NF National Front NGO Non-Governmental Organization NRICP National Research Institute for Cultural Properties NRVA National Risk and Vulnerability Assessment NSC National Security Council NSP National Solidarity Program OEF Operation Enduring Freedom OMLT Operational Mentor and Liaison Team OSCE Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe PAG Policy Action Group PDPA People’s Democratic Party of Afghanistan PRT Provincial Reconstruction Team PTS Program for Strengthening Peace RECC Regional Economic Cooperation Conference SAARC South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation SCO Shanghai Cooperation Organization SNTV Single Non-Transferable Vote SRSG Special Representative of the Secretary-General TAPI Trans-Afghanistan Pipeline UNAMA United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientifi c, and Cultural Organization UNHCR Offi ce of United Nations