11 Food Security Bulletin October - December 2005 Editorial Council, WFP/VAM Nepal has pioneered the This monitoring cycle marks the primary harvesting capability to collect, transmit and analyze data in season for paddy and maize. With some real time. Each WFP/VAM Field Monitor is now exceptions, survey participants report either no equipped with a Pocket PC on which s/he enters change or decreases in production due to the late respondents’ answers. The questionnaire has been monsoon earlier this year. The data indicates that redesigned not only to match the latest thinking in the consequently delayed planting of these two food security, but also to capitalize on this new major cereals contributed to lower food stocks and dynamic format and, for example, analyze fewer agricultural labor opportunities in cases where respondents’ answers for verification and elaboration less land was cultivated in the absence of sufficient during the interview. irrigation. Through connecting their satellite telephones to the As predicted in Food Security Bulletin 10, the actual Pocket PC, the Field Monitors are able instantly to effect of the delayed monsoon rains varies and is transmit the data to a secure server based outside not equally extensive or adverse in all the districts the country. Without delay, the data can be retrieved monitored. Where the impact has been adverse, and subjected to preliminary trend analysis. The households report lower food stocks than last year, system is designed to be fully operational even with some indicating stocks will run out one to three when ordinary means of communication cease to months earlier. The survey also picked up early function, for example in the event of an earthquake. indications of significantly increasing labor migration This is the first Food Security Bulletin to analyze rates. The food stock shortfalls might drive migration and present this real-time data. While the potential rates up across the affected districts in the months of the new system is being explored, the most ahead. notable change is the fact that the data in the Food Fortunately, the ceasefire and consequent freer Security Bulletins is recent and up-to-date. WFP/ movement of goods between districts have VAM welcomes suggestions about how to develop depressed or maintained retail prices of basic this capability for the benefit of the wider donor and foodstuffs. Food supplies have been unusually agency community. plentiful in the monitoring cycle. Both factors lower Food Security Monitoring (FSM) in Nepal the bar for access to food and contribute to World Food Programme monitors food security in the 32 Districts where it implements development activities in Nepal. mitigating the effect of the decrease in summer crop The Department for International Development (DFID) of the production. The lower stock level may, however, drive UK Government has funded, and the Vulnerability Analysis prices up in the medium term, especially if the expiry and Mapping (VAM) Unit of WFP Nepal has managed, the of the ceasefire leads to intensified fighting and project since its inception in October 2002. limited movement of food from surplus to deficit Thirty field monitors monitor 32 Districts and 3 border points areas. with India. 29 of them collect household and community data on food security in these 32 Districts. They aim to conduct Another positive development was the early rain in about 1,500 repeat household interviews, in 150 VDCs, during every two-month monitoring cycle. In addition, each December which is expected to boost the winter field monitor randomly selects 5-15 households to interview harvest of wheat and barley in April and May once in a cycle. The repeat households were selected considerably. through purposive sampling to represent vulnerable segments of the given population, for example, in terms of their physical isolation and limited landholding. Monitoring in Real-time Additionally, one field monitor is assigned to collect migration On October 24, the WFP/VAM Food Security data at 3 main Terai border points with India. He checks Monitoring system went real-time. With the official migration records against spot interviews with technical assistance of the Norwegian Refugee migrants as they cross the border © WFP/VAM Nepal: Reproduction with acknowledgment permitted Page 1 of 11 Development Regions, Administrative Zones and Districts HUMLA DARCHULAI L A BAJHANG K MUGU BAITADIA BAJURA K H SET AR DADELDHURAA I T N O JUMLA A ACHHAM IK L M DOTI L I A DOLPA I K D R KANCHANPUR A I IL E K MUSTANGG KAILALI H JAJARKOT A RUKUM L BHERI Kathmandu A MANANG SURKHET Bhaktapur MYAGDIW N RAPTI BARDIYA A B A G Lalitpur LY AG A A ROLPA LU N G S NG H KASKI D N U A N T JA A D A M H BANKE H B A K K RASUWA G R T U R L I U L O Y M A P I P G G DANG N SYANGJA I TANAHU D BAGMATI ARGHAKHANCHI A PALPA H NUWAKOT SINDHUPALCHOK U D B U SI DOLAKHA M Far Western Development Region LUMBINIST I A U A HA A H R H B LB E A A PI P K S KA D AL WA N W CHITWAN M R U H HU A NA AK L NK P W KAVRE O TAPLEJUNG U ANP U T SA R NA UR RAMECHHAP S R P A A M Y OKHALDHUNGA G U I K N A AN H S I S M A T I A R Mid Western Development Region R A N T KOSHI AH A A A T D R H H O BHOJPUR R R H T P A U H N H A I I L E C C H H I N K T B R A A A A A A P A T L S E R T U J DHANKUTA A U G T ILAM A S N I O UR R P A UDAYA M H A R Western Development Region H SIRAHA A A G D S S N M N A SAPTARI U R S O JHAPA Central Development Region M Development region boundaries Eastern Development Region The boundaries and names shown on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations Far-western Region harvest to be similar to last year’s as they managed Seven WFP/VAM Field Monitors survey food security in the to cultivate and irrigate the crop in a timely fashion. 7 Hill and Mountain districts of Achham, Baitadi, Bajhang, Achham and Bajura also saw decreases in paddy Bajura, Dadeldhura, Darchula and Doti. production. But Darchula district reported a similar harvest as last year and this might be due to the Production. This monitoring cycle is the season fact that it had only cultivated paddy in lowland areas of rice, millet, and potato harvesting and wheat, where irrigation facilities were available (Fig. 1). barley, millet, maize, and potato cultivation in the Far-western Development region. Figure 1 presents an attempt to sketch the trend of paddy production in selected districts in the Far- There has been a decrease in the rice paddy western Development region over the past four harvest in six out of the seven districts monitored, years. Estimates for 2002, 2003, and 2004 generally attributed to the late monsoon this year. production are HMG/N figures1 . This data is the In Baitadi and Bajhang, survey participants reported actual production tonnage for the relevant districts, a 1/5 decrease. In Doti, farmers reported harvests overall. Estimates for 2005 are derived from that yielded 1/5 to 1/2 that of last year; in the same narrative data collected by WFP/VAM Field 2 district, however, District Agriculture Development Monitors in October to December 2005 . These Office (DADO) reported only a 1/10 decrease are subjective assessments of year-on-year overall. Similarly, in Dadeldhura, the DADO percent changes in production output. The latter estimated a decrease of anywhere between 1/10 were applied to the 2004 HMG/N actual production and 3/20 in paddy while the participants in the tonnage figures to gauge 2005 production survey, who are selected for their relative status of quantities. deprivation, in Koteli and Samaijhee VDCs suggested that this year’s production would be Two caveats should be noted in our use of these 3/10 or even 1/2 of last year’s. In contrast, two data sources. First, the Ministry of Agriculture participants in Jogbudha VDC expected their and Cooperatives data represent annual production, 1 Statistical Information on Nepalese Agriculture from the Agri-Business Promotion and Statistics Division of HMG/N, Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives, 2001/2-2003/4 2 The 2005 estimate of Dadeldhura paddy production was provided by DADO. © WFP/VAM Nepal: Reproduction with acknowledgment permitted Page 2 of 11 while the field monitor reports refer specifically to Fig. 1 Tentative Estimates of the period of October to December 2005. We Production of Paddy (MT) in Selected expect this misalignment should contribute to only Dis tr icts 17,000 a small amount of error, as much of the annual production is from the summer crop harvested from 15,000 October to December. As such, annual production 13,000 estimates will be similar to production estimates 11,000 from October to December. 9,000 Second, and most significantly in terms of the bias 7,000 of these trend graphs, the estimates of changes 5,000 in production reported by WFP/VAM Field Monitors 2002 2003 2004 2005 is gathered from only a limited number of VDCs Baitadi Bajhang within the given district. They thus do not describe changes in production throughout the district, but Darc hula Dadeldhura rather only in the VDCs visited during the monitoring cycle.