UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE FOR ENVIRONMENT AND HUMAN SECURITY (UNU-EHS) REPORT No. 2 November 2012 Report No. 2 | November 2012 Where the Rain Falls Project − Case Study: Bangladesh _ 3 _ 4 Where the Rain Falls Project − Case Study: Bangladesh Report No. 2 | November 2012 ˝Where the Rain Falls˝ Project Case study: Bangladesh Results from Kurigram District, Rangpur Division Authors: Ahsan Uddin Ahmed, Selim Reza Hassan, Benjamin Etzold and Sharmind Neelormi Report No. 2 | November 2012 Where the Rain Falls Project − Case Study: Bangladesh _ 5 Acknowledgements Our heartiest thanks goes to the communities of Khanpara, colleagues from the Center for International Earth Science Khamar Holokhana, Arazi Kodomtola and Doalipara villages Information Network (CIESIN) at the Columbia University for in Kurigram district who contributed hugely by sharing their providing relevant data on rainfall variability and for making ex- knowledge and experience. The communities’ practical informa- cellent maps based on their data.Thanks to the Institute of Water tion has helped the researchers to undertake an in-depth research and Flood Management (IWFM) at the Bangladesh University of to understand rainfall variability and other environmental trends Engineering Technology (BUET) for their institutional support for and its implication on their livelihoods, their food security and the research and their agreement for undertaking joint advocacy. their mobility. A special thanks to Allan Findlay, M. Shameem Siddiqi and We greatly acknowledge the contribution of Kevin Henry, Wolfgang-Peter Zingel for their reviews of the final draft report. Project Coordinator for CARE, Koko Warner, Scientific Director, Their insightful and critical comments have made the report more and Tamer Afifi, Research Director, both from the United Nations concise and reader-friendly. Thanks also to Verena Rossow, University Institute for Environment and Human Security student assistant at the University of Bonn and UNU-EHS, who (UNU-EHS) for their insightful comments and edit on the was involved in literature reviews, making of graphs and tables, research methodology and the research report. We also want and final editing of the report, and Jenna Blumenthal, intern at to thank Hans-Georg Bohle from the Department of Geography, CARE from Emory University, who contributed to editing of the University of Bonn, who has allocated human resources to report, too. Thanks also to Serge Birtel and Simon Peth, both support the project. graduate students at the University of Bonn’s Geography Department, whose own research in Bangladesh provided We would like to extend our thanks to all colleagues from important additional insights for the project. UNU-EHS, including the other international researchers, CARE and partners, for the very fruitful exchange of ideas and for ad- We are grateful to the UNU-EHS communications team, namely ministrative and logistic support for the research. We would like Alice Fišer, Andrea Wendeler and Katharina Brach for their to thank Andrea Milan, UNU-EHS, who joined the research team valuable work in publishing the case study reports. in Bangladesh and provided guidance on the research methodol- ogy, and Magesh Nagarajan (formerly UNU-EHS) for his work Also, we greatly appreciate and acknowledge the generous in `cleaning the data´ and his statistical analysis. Thanks to support of AXA Group and the John D. and Catherine T. Delphine Pinault (CARE) for her support with the research MacArthur Foundation without which it would not have been protocol and research methods and to Charles Ehrhart (formerly possible to implement the “Where the Rain Falls” project. CARE/PECCN), who has initially provided guidance in doing the study in Bangladesh. Sincere thanks go to the CARE and PECCN Last but not least, we would like to thank Ms. Kimberly Bennett colleagues for their insightful comments, in particular Bruce (CARE “Where the Rain Falls” communications coordinator) for Ravesloot who read through the draft report and has provided editing this report. valuable comments. We also thank Alex de Sherbinin and his _ 6 Where the Rain Falls Project − Case Study: Bangladesh Report No. 2 | November 2012 Table of contents Figures 10 Tables 11 Abbreviations and acronyms 13 Executive summary 14 Section 1: Introduction 19 Section 2: Literature review 23 2.1 Climate change and rainfall variability in Bangladesh 23 2.2 Poverty and food security in Bangladesh 24 2.2.1 Food security 25 2.3 Migration patterns in Bangladesh 26 2.4 Environmentally induced migration in Bangladesh 28 Section 3: Methodology 33 3.1 Objective of the study 33 3.2 Selection of the study area 33 3.3 Methodology employed 36 3.3.1 Household survey 36 3.3.2 Participatory research and focus group discussions 39 3.3.3 Expert interviews 40 3.4 Limitations of the study 40 Section 4: Introduction to the case study area 45 4.1 Kurigram district 45 4.1.1 Khanpara – the “base village” of this study 46 4.1.2 The ”satellite villages” and erosion-proneness of the area 46 4.2 Rainfall and flooding in the Kurigram district 46 4.3 Socio-economic aspects and poverty in the Kurigram District 48 4.4 Livelihoods in the Kurigram district 49 4.5 Seasonal food insecurity in the Kurigram district 51 4.6 Migration and mobility in the Kurigram district 54 Report No. 2 | November 2012 Where the Rain Falls Project − Case Study: Bangladesh _ 7 Section 5: Climate variability 57 5.1 Changing rainfall patterns in Kurigram 57 5.2 People’s perception of changing rainfall patterns 60 5.2.1 Changing rainfall … 60 5.2.2 Changing seasons ... 60 Section 6: Livelihood and food security 65 6.1 Population growth and declining resources 65 6.2 Rainfall-dependent livelihoods 66 6.2.1 Agricultural livelihoods 66 6.2.2 Raising livestock and homestead forestry 70 6.2.3 Fishing 71 6.3 Poverty and well-being 71 6.3.1 Land ownership 74 6.3.2 Material possessions 74 6.3.3 Employment relationships and social strata 74 6.3.4 Education of children 75 6.4 Food security 76 6.4.1 Availability of food 76 6.4.2 Access to food 77 6.4.3 Food consumption 77 6.4.4 Rainfall variability, food security and migration according to class status 80 6.5 Seasonality and rainfall sensitivity of livelihoods and food security 83 6.5.1 Seasonal livelihoods 83 6.5.2 Seasonal food insecurity – Monga 83 6.5.3 Coping with food insecurity – common adaptive strategies in Kurigram 86 6.6 Living with natural hazards 88 6.7 Implications of rainfall variability and people’s responses 89 6.7.1 River erosion and flooding 91 6.7.2 Effects of rainfall variability on agricultural-based livelihoods 93 6.7.3 Effects of rainfall variability on fisheries-based livelihoods and the responses of fishermen 98 _ 8 Where the Rain Falls Project − Case Study: Bangladesh Report No. 2 | November 2012 Section 7: Migration and human mobility patterns 103 7.1 The decision to migrate in the Kurigram district 106 7.1.1 Migration decision-making 107 7.1.2 Major reasons for migration 107 7.2 The migration process 109 7.2.1 Initiating migration 109 7.2.2 Organizing migration – the role of “migration entrepreneurs” 109 7.2.3 Temporary or permanent migration? 109 7.3 Migration destinations and labour relations 112 7.3.1 Migration destinations 112 7.3.2 Activity at destination of migration 115 7.4 Migration and remittances 117 7.5 The social costs of migration from a gender perspective 118 Section 8: Linking rainfall variability, food security and migration 121 8.1 Rainfall variability and its implications on livelihoods and food security 121 8.1.1 Increased variability of rainfall – a key indicator of climate change 121 8.1.2 People’s sensitivity to rainfall variability 123 8.1.3 Under the impact of rainfall variability, local food security is at risk 124 8.1.4 Coping with irregular rainfall 124 8.2 Climate change and migration 125 8.2.1 Trends in migration from the Kurigram district 125 8.2.2 Rainfall variability and migration – under what circumstances do people migrate? 127 8.2.3 The future of migration 129 Section 9: Summary and conclusion 131 Section 10: Reflections for policymakers 135 Annex I: List of experts who have been interviewed 140 Annex II: Contributors to this report 141 Annex III: Map of research area 142 References 147 Report No. 2 | November 2012 Where the Rain Falls Project − Case Study: Bangladesh _ 9 Figures Figure 1: Relative food security in Bangladesh 27 Figure 2: Map of Kurigram district 34 Figure 3: Map of Kurigram Sadar Upazila 35 Figure 4: Resource map of Khanpara, the base village 47 Figure 5: Poverty map, Bangladesh 55 Figure 6: Total monsoon rainfall in Kurigram district between 1979 and 2010 58 Figure 7: Variability of monsoon rainfall in Kurigram district between 1980 and 2007 60 Figure 8: People’s perceptions of climatic changes over the last 10 to 30 years 61 Figure 9: Changing seasons: Share of respondents identifying the number of seasons in the past and present 62 Figure 10: Trend in duration of Kaitan Satao in Kurigram 63 Figure 11: Increase in productivity of paddy/rice between 1977 and 2004 76 Figure 12: Seasonality of livelihoods: Seasonal calendar of farmers in Khanpara 81 Figure 13: Seasonality of livelihoods: Seasonal calendar of fishermen in Holokhana 82 Figure 14: Annual pattern of food security according to land ownership of households 85 Figure 15: Distribution of food insecurity in September and October among agricultural-based and non-agricultural households 86 Figure 16: Impacts of rainfall variability on farming-based livelihoods and respective coping strategies to reduce vulnerability 90 Figure 17: Riverbank erosion affecting the village Arazi-Kadamtola in 2010 and 2011 92 Figure 18: Impressions from the village Arazi-Kadamtola 94 Figure 19: Duration of migration trips 112 Figure 20: Destinations of migrants from Kurigram within Bangladesh 113 Figure 21: Engagement of “first time migrants” at their place of destination 116 _ 10 Where the Rain Falls Project − Case Study: Bangladesh Report No.