Br J Sports Med: first published as 10.1136/bjsm.11.1.20 on 1 April 1977. Downloaded from 20 WILL THE OLYMPICS SURVIVE? T. KHOSLA, Ph.D. Department of Medical Statistics, The Welsh National School of Medicine, Heath Park, CARDIFF. CF4 4XN ABSTRACT The United States of America dominated 58 events in athletics, field and swimming, which between them accounted for 35 per cent of all events in the Munich Olympiad. 1972; these events favour taller individuals. But, in 25 per cent of other events (1) cycling, (2) fencing, (3) gymnastics, (4) judo, (5) weightlifting and (6) Graeco Roman wrestling, the U.S.A. did not win a single medal. The failure of the U.S.A. to maintain her lead in Munich was largely due to weaknesses in these other events in many of which the potential medallists can be derived from the lower half of the height distribution (events 3 to 6). These weaknesses are Russia's strength and they continued to remain un- strengthened at Montreal. Also, the domination held by the U.S.A. in swimming was seriously challenged by East Germany. The present trends indicate that the U.S.A.'s ranking is likely to slip further to the third position in Moscow 1980. Factors inhibiting the survival of the Olympics are pointed. INTRODUCTION TABLE / Number of Medals Won by Russia Until recently the United States of America has domi- and the U.S.A. (Munich 1972) nated the International Olympics on most of the nine- teen occasions since the revival of the ancient games in 1896 by winning the largest number of medals. No Country Gold Silver Bronze Total serious challenger to her commanding position was made Russia 50 27 22 99 until 1968. Russia entered the competition in a modest (43)* (22) (17) (82) copyright. way in 1956 seriously challenged the supremacy of U.S.A. in 1968 (U.S.A. 107 medals; Russia 91), and U.S.A. 33 31 29 93 replaced the Americans as the champions of the Games by winning 99 medals to the U.S.A.'s 93 in Munich (28) (26) (29) (83) 1972. As anticipated, Russia has again topped the list of * leading nations by winning 125 medals to the U.S.A.'s Number of medals accounted for in Part I study are given in 94 in Montreal. Parenthesis http://bjsm.bmj.com/ The U.S.A.'s failure to maintain her lead in 1972 was analysis is based. Over 80% of the reported medals are largely due to her weaknesses in over 55 Olympic accounted for (Russia 83%, U.S.A. 89%) in the analysis sporting events which between them yielded 165 medals, on age, height and type of events for men and women; and in many of these events potential gold medallists the medals unaccounted for do not introduce any bias in could be found amongst those sections of the population the overall findings on the failure of the U.S.A. to who were shorter in stature. Very largely, U.S.A.'s maintain the lead in Munich 1972. The anticipated strength lay in the swimming events, but in Montreal, failure in Montreal was documented in a short communi- Eastern Germany posed a serious challenge to the domi- cation on 3rd July, 1976 (Khosla, 1976a) drawing on September 26, 2021 by guest. Protected nation of the U.S.A. in the women's swimming events. attention to the weaknesses of U.S.A. in 38 specific The present trends indicate that the U.S.A.'s ranking in events for men. Part II deals with the analysis of medals the tally of medals may slip further to third position in won by men and women in Montreal (Times 1976) Moscow 1980. within broad categories of events by the three leading nations (Russia, U.S.A. and East Germany) to uncover DATA additional factors of importance in the further down- grading of U.S.A. in the tally of medals. The paper is in two parts. The data on age, sex, nationality and height, of the medallists from the U.S.A. and Russia were collated from three separate volumes CATEGORIES AND NUMBER OF EVENTS published by the organizing committee for the Games of the XXth Olympiad, Munich 1972. The team events are PART I not considered in Part I (relay events in running, swim- ming and team events in equestrian and gymnastics, etc.) Many events within broad categories are contested in to avoid multiple entries of the same athlete on age and the International Olympics, and each event yields three height. Table I gives the number of medals on which the medals (gold, silver and bronze). For example in ath- Br J Sports Med: first published as 10.1136/bjsm.11.1.20 on 1 April 1977. Downloaded from 21 TABLE /1 MALE MEDALLISTS* FROM U.S.A. AND RUSSIA, MUNICH 1972 (Events are listed by decreasing number of medals won by U.S.A.) No. Maximum U.S.A. Russia CATEGORY of Medals Points Medals Points Medals Points Won Won 1. Swimming (13)** 39 78)*** 24 47) 2 4) ) 210 ) 82 ) 33 2. Athletics, Track and Field (22) 66 132) 18 35) 12 29) 3. Wrestling (11) 33 66 5 13 9 23 (Free Style) 4. Shooting (8) 24 48 4 10 4 8 5. Boxing (11) 33 66 4 6 1 3 6. Yachting (6) 18 36 3 5 2 4 7. Archery (1) 3 6 1 3 0 0 8. Equestrian (3) 9 18 2 2 1 2 9. Rowing (7) 21 42 1 2 2 6 10. Team Events (6) 18 36 1 2 3 6 11. Canoeing (7) 21 42 1 1 4 12 12. Cycling (6) 18 36 0 0 2 13. Fencing (3) 91 18 0 0 2; 4 14. Gymnastics (5) 15i 30 0 0 s5 11 114 228 24 )54copyright. 15. Judo (5) 15 30 0 0 4 7) 16. Weightlifting (9) 27 ) 54 0 0 5 12 17. Wrestling (10) 30 60 0 0 6 16/ (Graeco Roman) TOTAL 133 399 798 64 126 64 151 http://bjsm.bmj.com/ * Data collated from 3 separate volumes published by the organizing committee for the Games of the XXth Olympiad, Munich 1972. Over 80% of the reported medals are accounted for in the present analysis; the medals unaccounted for do not introduce any bias in the overall findings. ** Number of events are given in parenthesis. *** 3 points for gold, 2 for silver, 1 for bronze. Table II Published from Khosla, T., Brit.Med.Journ., (courtesy of the Editor), 2 p. 40 (July 3rd). on September 26, 2021 by guest. Protected letics and field events (Table I1) there are 22 separate but so far closed events such as boxing or wrestling have events (running, jumping, hurdling, throwing, walking not been introduced for them!* etc.). The Olympic events can be divided into two broad groups: closed and open. In the closed events (boxing, Table 11 lists the categories of events for males in wrestling etc.) there is an official recognition that the decreasing order of medals won by the U.S.A. in Munich heavier weights have an advantage over the lighter 1972. For example the U.S.A. dominated the swimming weights and the contestants are matched within rigid events by winning 61% of the 39 medals (60% of maxi- weight groupings. In the open events, however, no offi- mum points). Of the total 126 points won by the cial recognition of any form of advantage is accepted, U.S.A., 82 (65%) were derived from swimming, and although scientific evidence has shown an overwhelming track and field athletics. These events contributed only bias in favour of the very tall in many of the 'sporting 26% of the 798 maximum points. In contrast, the U.S.A. events' (Khosla 1968, 1971). did not win any points in cycling, fencing, gymnastics, judo, weightlifting and Graeco-Roman wrestling which New events have been added over the years (canoeing in 1936, judo and volley ball in 1964). Women started FOOTNOTE competing in 1928. There are 36 open events for women *Though judo and its variants are popular women's sports - Ed. Br J Sports Med: first published as 10.1136/bjsm.11.1.20 on 1 April 1977. Downloaded from 22 TABLE 1ll Female Medalfists from U.S.A. and Russia Munich 1972 No. of Maximum U.S.A. Russia CATEGORY medals Points Medals Points Medals Points won won won Iwon Swimming (1 2) 36 72 16 33 2 3 Archery and foil (2) 6 12 1 3 2 2 Athletics (11) 33 66 2 2 4 11 Canoeing (3) 9 18 0 0 2 6 Gymnastics (4) 12 24 0 0 7 14 Team events (1) 3 6 0 0 1 3 TOTAL (33) 99 198 19 38 18 39 * Number of events. together yield a total of 114 medals or 228 points TABLE V (28.6% of total points). The table shows that Russia's Height Distribution of Medallists from Russia and U.S.A. achievements were distributed far more evenly. Simi- and Percentiles of Height (U.S.A. General Population) larly, the results on women (Table 111) show that ex- cepting the swimming events, Russia won more points Height MALES than U.S.A. in athletics, canoeing and gymnastics. FEMALES copyright. cm Russia U.S.A. Russia U.S.A. Tables IV and V give the age and height distributions of the medallists from the two nations as both factors are of importance in determining the outcome of the 150-154 4.4 0 16.7 0 155-159 1.5 0 0 0 TABLE IV 160-164 7.4 0 33.3 0 165-169 7.4 4.2 38.9 15.8 Age Distribution of Medallists from 170-174 11.8 http://bjsm.bmj.com/ Russia and USA 7.0 11.1 57.9 175-179 25.0 18.3 0 21.0 180-184 19.1 28.2 0 0 Age MALES FEMALES 185-189 11.8 21.1 0 5.3 190-194 11.8 14.1 0 0 Years Russia USA Russia USA 195+ 0 7.0 0 0 Total 100 100 100 100 < 20 0 15.5 38.9 68.4 (68) (71) (18) (19) on September 26, 2021 by guest.