Climate Change in the Hudson Bay Complex: Opportunities and Vulnerabilities for the Port of Churchill’s Marine Operations A product of Transport Canada’s Network of EXpertise on Transportation in Arctic Waters (NEXTAW) February, 2016 8,9,5)++4"9'' 617,%&' /%01'' 2,3+44,5'617,%&' -+$,&' !"#$%&'()*+,)' !"#$%&' '-+.' !"#$% :;"*<;,44'6,31*' '=$)"+*.' The Hudson Bay Complex: Hudson Bay, Hudson Strait, and Foxe Basin. Map modified from Arctic Voyage Planning Guide (2013). Authors: Jonathan Andrews, David Babb, Mike McKernan, Brian Horton, and Dr. David Barber The Centre for Earth Observation Science University of Manitoba Winnipeg, MB. Corresponding author: Jonathan Andrews, [email protected] About this Assessment Context and Goals This climate-impact assessment was completed by researchers at the University of Manitoba’s Centre for Earth Observation Science (CEOS) with financial support from Transport Canada. This work is one component of a broader CEOS-Transport Canada partnership running from 2014-2016, which is a product of Transport Canada’s Network of EXpertise on Transportation in Arctic Waters (NEXTAW) program. NEXTAW is part of Transport Canada’s Northern Transportation Adaptation Initiative. The motivation for this project at CEOS and Transport Canada stems from an awareness of the significant environmental changes occurring in the Canadian Arctic and a shared desire to better understand these changes and the impact they may have on marine transportation in the area. This assessment examines the impact of climate change in Hudson Bay, Hudson Strait, and Foxe Basin, and considers the resultant vulnerabilities and opportunities for the Port of Churchill’s marine operations extending to 2030 and 2050. Changes in sea ice and their consequences for shipping routes are of particular interest. The Port of Churchill’s land-based infrastructure and operations are not examined in this assessment. This document’s primary audience is those parties with a vested interested in marine transportation in the Hudson Bay Complex. This includes the Port of Churchill’s central stakeholders, such as OmniTRAX Canada, Manitoba Infrastructure and Transportation, and Transport Canada, as well as community and industry members from around the Complex. More generally, it is our intention that this document will be useful to all those interested in the intersection between Climate Change and marine transportation in the Canadian Arctic. Methods The content in this document was largely produced by an extensive review of the relevant scientific literature, by examining the ongoing and recently published research at CEOS, and by interviews with representatives of the Port of Churchill’s central stakeholders. Some content was also produced by novel analysis of climate data; the authors conducted data analysis to examine trends in air temperature, precipitation, and wind strengths in the Hudson Bay Complex. Citation Andrews, J., Babb, D., McKernan, M., Horton, B., and Barber, D. (February, 2016). Climate Change in the Hudson Bay Complex: Opportunities and Vulnerabilities for the Port of Churchill’s Marine Operations. The Centre for Earth Observation Science (CEOS). doi: 10.5203/lwbin.ceos.2016.1 Copies of this publication are available on the CEOS website at http://umanitoba.ca/faculties/environment/departments/ceos/research/NEXTAW.html iii Climate Change in the Hudson Bay Complex. 2016. About the Authors and Contributors Authors: Jonathan Andrews, B.Sc.: A Masters student at the University of Manitoba’s Centre for Earth Observation Science (CEOS) studying the implications of climate change for northern marine transportation. David Babb, M.Sc.: A Research Associate at CEOS studying sea ice dynamics and thermodynamics throughout the Arctic and the implications of a changing ice pack on northern marine transportation. Mike McKernan, M.Sc., MES, P.Biol: A Research Associate at CEOS and Principal of MLi3 Inc., an environmental consultancy specializing in regulatory process compliance; environmental planning, impact assessment and licensing/permitting; and corporate environmental due diligence. Brian Horton, M.Sc.: Formerly a Research Associate with CEOS. Currently a Research Project Coordinator with the Northern Climate Exchange, Yukon Research Centre in Whitehorse, YK. Dr. David Barber: A Distinguished Professor and Associate Dean (Research) in the Clayton H. Riddell Faculty of Earth, Environment and Resources at the University of Manitoba. Dr. Barber holds a Canada Research Chair (Tier 1) within Arctic System Science. Contributors: We are grateful for the excellent guidance and support kindly provided by the contributors listed below: • Jeff McEachern, Vice President of Operations for the Hudson Bay Port Company (formerly Executive Director of the Churchill Gateway Development Corporation) • Erica Vido, Director of Transportation Systems Planning and Development, Manitoba Infrastructure and Transportation. • Dr. Adolf Ng, Professor of Maritime Transport & Logistics Management at the University of Manitoba and Associate Director of the University of Manitoba Transport Institute. • François Gaudreau, Management Assistant of Sales and Operations, Nunavut Sealink & Supply Inc. • Cory Young, Chief Officer of the Town of Churchill. • Sinclair Harrison, President of the Hudson Bay Route Association. • Jan Andersen, Port Captain for Norden Tankers and Bulkers USA. • Pauline Gerrard, Institutional Development Coordinator, International Institute for Sustainable Development. • Claire Hornby, Research Associate with CEOS • Kerri Warner, Formerly a Research Associate with CEOS, Currently a Physical Scientist, Research, with the Meteorological Service of Canada • Dr. Jennifer Lukovich, Research Associate with CEOS iv Climate Change in the Hudson Bay Complex. 2016. Table of Contents: About this Assessment .............................................................................................................. iii About the Authors and Contributors ......................................................................................... iii Table of Contents ........................................................................................................................ v Executive Summary ................................................................................................................... vi Section A. Introduction ........................................................................................................... 9 1. In Brief: The Port of Churchill and Key Stakeholders .................................................... 9 2. The Port of Churchill – An Introduction ....................................................................... 11 3. The Port of Churchill – Shipping Infrastructure and Operations .................................. 16 4. The Port of Churchill – Future Prospects (2030-2050) ................................................. 25 References ........................................................................................................................... 31 Section B. The Hudson Bay System - Ecology and Environment ...................................... 33 5. Ecology of the Hudson Bay Complex .......................................................................... 33 6. Environment of the Hudson Bay Complex: Climate-related trends, variability, and projections ..................................................................................................................... 42 Section C. Climate-related Vulnerabilities and Opportunities ......................................... 102 7. The Port of Churchill’s Vulnerabilities and Opportunities ......................................... 102 7.1. Summary .............................................................................................................. 102 7.2. Climate-related Vulnerabilities ............................................................................ 106 7.3. Climate-related Opportunities .............................................................................. 112 7.4. The Hudson Bay Complex’s Ecological Vulnerabilities to Shipping Activity ... 119 References ................................................................................................................... 126 Section D. Appendices .......................................................................................................... 130 A) Glossary of Terms ....................................................................................................... 130 v Climate Change in the Hudson Bay Complex. 2016. Executive Summary This climate-impact assessment examines the impact of climate change in Hudson Bay, Hudson Strait, and Foxe Basin, and considers the resultant vulnerabilities and opportunities for the Port of Churchill’s marine operations extending to 2030 and 2050. Changes in sea ice and their consequences for shipping routes are of particular interest. The Port of Churchill The Port of Churchill is an international port located on the southwest coast of Hudson Bay in Churchill, Manitoba. The Port’s primary freight is Canadian grain, and between 1997 and 2014 roughly 500,000 tonnes of grain were exported to international destinations each year. For context, this export volume represents roughly two percent of the grain exported from Canada each year. In addition to grain, the Port of Churchill handles roughly 10,000 tonnes of marine re- supply freight per year, destined for the Nunavut region of Kivalliq. Shipping vessels travelling