World Bank Group Support to Electricity Access, FY2000-2014 AN INDEPENDENT EVALUATION World Bank Group Support to Electricity Access, FY2000–FY2014 An Independent Evaluation . Table of Contents ABBREVIATIONS ................................................................................................................................. IX ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ........................................................................................................................ XI OVERVIEW .......................................................................................................................................... XIII MANAGEMENT RESPONSE ............................................................................................................. XXI MANAGEMENT ACTION RECORD ................................................................................................ XXVII REPORT TO THE BOARD FROM THE COMMITTEE ON DEVELOPMENT EFFECTIVENESS SUB- COMMITTEE ............................................................................................................................. XXXV 1. EVALUATION CONTEXT, SCOPE, AND APPROACH ................................................................... 1 Dimensions of the Access Challenge ........................................................................................................................ 1 The World Bank Group’s Evolving Strategy for Electricity Access ............................................................................ 7 Evaluation Questions and Methodology .................................................................................................................... 7 2. ASSISTANCE, FOCUS, AND PERFORMANCE, FY2000–2014 ................................................... 12 Lending and Focus on Electricity Access ................................................................................................................ 12 Coverage of Electricity Access Issues and Strategies in CAS/CPS........................................................................ 20 Knowledge Development for Electricity Access ...................................................................................................... 21 Development Outcomes: Adequacy, Reliability and Quality, Affordability, and Welfare ......................................... 23 Key Performance Indicators for access attributes, financial viability, and welfare .................................................. 27 Reliability and Quality .............................................................................................................................................. 30 Implementation Efficiency of World Bank Electricity Sector Investment Projects ................................................... 34 Safeguards Performance ........................................................................................................................................ 37 Monitoring and Evaluation ....................................................................................................................................... 40 Conclusions ............................................................................................................................................................. 42 3. SUPPORTING SECTOR FINANCIAL VIABILITY AND AFFORDABLE ACCESS FOR THE POOR ............................................................................................................................................. 49 Commercial Viability of Institutions and Financial Viability of the Electricity Sector ................................................ 49 Support for Improving Sector Financial Viability ..................................................................................................... 51 World Bank Effectiveness in Improving the Commercial Performance of Service Providers and Overall Financial Viability of Electricity Sectors .................................................................................................................................. 52 Affordable Access for Inclusive Development and Shared Prosperity .................................................................... 56 Conclusions ............................................................................................................................................................. 60 4. ENHANCING COUNTRY APPROACHES AND SCALING UP ACCESS...................................... 62 The Challenge of Achieving Universal Access ........................................................................................................ 62 Bank Group–Supported Good Practices for Scaling up Access ............................................................................. 65 iii CONTENTS Bank Group Experience with Off-Grid Expansion ................................................................................................... 68 World Bank Experience with Support for Pre-electrification ................................................................................................ 69 Support for Remote-Area Electrification .............................................................................................................................. 71 Productive Uses of Off-Grid Electricity ................................................................................................................................ 72 Solar Off-Grid Lighting Products ......................................................................................................................................... 73 Sectorwide Engagement for Nationwide Access Rollout ........................................................................................ 75 Collaboration among World Bank, IFC, and MIGA in the Electricity Sector ............................................................ 80 Conclusions ............................................................................................................................................................. 85 5. FINDINGS, CONCLUSIONS, AND RECOMMENDATIONS ........................................................... 87 REFERENCES ...................................................................................................................................... 92 Main Evaluation Question, Approach, and Scope ................................................................................................. 108 Country-focused Evaluative Analysis and Other Instruments ........................................................................................... 108 Project Performance Assessment Reports ....................................................................................................................... 108 Period of the Study ............................................................................................................................................................ 109 development Outcomes..................................................................................................................................................... 109 Procedure followed for rating Key Performance Indicators ............................................................................................... 110 Generation Capacity in Country Clients ............................................................................................................................ 110 Limitations ......................................................................................................................................................................... 112 References ............................................................................................................................................................ 127 Boxes Box 1.1. Systematic Review of Welfare Impacts from Electricity Access—Findings ............................... 3 Box 1.2. Electricity Access Projections for 2030 at Current Pace ........................................................... 6 Box 2.1. Bank Group Support for non-conventional Renewable Energy ...............................................18 Box 2.2. WBG Progress in Integrating Gender Issues ...........................................................................29 Box 3.1. Financial Performance and Adequate and Reliable Services ..................................................50 Box 3.2. Connection Costs and Electricity Access: An Issue of Shared Prosperity ...............................57 Box 3.3. Lao PDR’s Power to the People Program for Poor Rural Households .....................................58 Box 4.1. Off-Grid Electrification in a Nationwide Least-Cost Electrification Strategy .............................68 Box 4.2. Bangladesh’s Experience in Off-Grid Pre-Electrification ..........................................................70 Box 4.3. The Lighting Africa Program ....................................................................................................73 Box 4.4. Rwanda Geospatial National Electrification Rollout Plan and Investment Financing ...............76 Box 4.5. Bank Group Collaboration in Transforming Uganda’s Electricity Distribution: Lessons from IEG’s Evaluation of Umeme Limited ......................................................................................................82 Tables Table 1.1. Bank Group Country Clients by Electricity Access Category ................................................. 5 Table 1.2. Bank Group Electricity Sector Projects Covered by the Evaluation,