National Research University Higher School of Economics Voprosy obrazovaniya / Educational Studies Moscow No 1, 2018 established in 2004, is an academic journal published quarterly by the Higher School of Economics (HSE) ISSN 1814-9545 (Print) ISSN 2412-4354 (Online) The mission of the journal is to provide a medium for professional discus- sion on a wide range of educational issues. The journal publishes original research and perceptive essays from Russian and foreign experts on edu- cation, development and policy. “Educational Studies Moscow” strives for a multidisciplinary approach, covering traditional pedagogy as well as the sociology, economics and philosophy of education. Conceptually, the journal consists of several parts: • Theoretical materials and empirical research aimed at developing new approaches to understanding the functioning and development of edu- cation in modern society • Papers on current projects, practical developments and policy debates in the field of education, written for professionals and the wider public • Statistical data and case studies published as “information for reflection” with minimal accompanying text • Information about and analysis of the latest pedagogical projects • Reviews of articles published in international journals Target audience: Leading Russian universities, government bodies responsi- ble for education, councils from federal and regional legislatures, institutions engaged in education research, public organizations and foundations with an interest in education. All papers submitted for publication in the “Educational Studies Moscow” journal undergo peer review. Distributed by subscription and direct order Subscription Index: “Rospechat” Agency—82950 “Pressa Rossii” Agency—15163 Address National Research University Higher School of Economics 20 Myasnitskaya St., Moscow, Russia 101000 Tel: +7 (495) 772 95 90 *22 037, *22 038 E-mail: [email protected] Homepage: http://vo.hse.ru/en/ National Research University Higher School of Economics Educational Studies Moscow Yaroslav Kuzminov Editor-in-Chief, Rector, HSE, Russian Federation Editorial Council Mark Agranovich, Federal Institute of Education Development, Russian Federation Alexander Asmolov, Moscow University, Russian Federation Michael Barber, Pearson Affordable Learning Fund, Great Britain David Berliner, Arizona State University, United States Vladimir Briller, Pratt Institute, United States Martin Carnoy, Stanford University, United States John Douglass, University of California in Berkely, United States Vladimir Filippov, Ministry of Education and Science of Russia Sergey Filonovich, Graduate School of Management, HSE, Russian Federation Alma Harris, University of Malaya, Malaysia Josh Hawley, Ohio State University, United States Manuel Heitor, Technical University of Lisbon, Portugal Steve Kerr, University of Washington in Seattle, United States David Konstantinovsky, Institute of Sociology RAS, Russian Federation Vitaly Kurennoy, HSE, Russian Federation Oleg Lebedev, Moscow School of Social and Economic Sciences, Russian Federation Prashant Loyalka, Stanford University, United States Lev Lubimov, HSE, Russian Federation Simon Marginson, Institute of Education, University of London, Great Britain Igor Remorenko, Moscow City Teachers’ Training University, Russian Federation Alexey Semenov, Moscow State Pedagogical University, Russian Federation Jussi Välimaa, University of Jyväskylä, Finland Pavel Zgaga, University of Ljubljana, Slovenia Editorial Board Isak Froumin, Deputy Editor-in-Chief, HSE, Russian Federation Elena Penskaya, Deputy Editor-in-Chief, HSE, Russian Federation Irina Abankina, HSE, Russian Federation Viktor Bolotov, The Eurasian Association on Educational, Russian Federation Andrey Podolsky, MSU, Russian Federation Alexander Sidorkin, College of Education, CSU Sacramento, USA Alla Tryapicina, Herzen State Pedagogical University of Russia Maria Yudkevich, HSE, Russian Federation Editorial Staff Executive Editor Y. Belavina Literary Editor T. Gudkova Proof Reader E. Andreeva Pre-Press S. Zinoviev http://vo.hse.ru/en/ Table of contents No 1, 2018 THEORETICAL AND APPLIED RESEARCH Elena Kardanova, Alina Ivanova, Pavel Sergomanov, Tatiana Kanonire, Inna Antipkina, Diana Kaiky Patterns of First-Graders’ Development at the Start of Schooling: Cluster Approach Based on the Results of iPIPS Project . 8 Mary Rumyantzeva The Humanities in Schools as a Tool of the National Policy On the Example of the Republic of Tatarstan . 38 Galina Zuckerman, Galina Kovaleva, Viktoriya Baranova Reading Literacy of Russian Fourth-Graders: Lessons from PIRLS‑2016 . 58 Alexander Pentin, Galina Kovaleva, Elena Davidova, Elena Smirnova Science Education in Russia According to the Results of the TIMSS and PISA International Studies . 79 PRACTICE Elena Gorbunova Elaboration of Research on Student Withdrawal from Univer- sities in Russia and the United States . 110 Bjørn Stensaker University Alliances: Enhancing Control, Capacity, and Creativity in Dynamic Environments . 132 Ksenia Romanenko University Mergers: The Implications for Students . 154 EDUCATION STATISTICS AND SOCIOLOGY Yana Roshchina, Sergey Roshchin, Victor Rudakov The Demand for Massive Open Online Courses (MOOC): Evidence from Russian Education . 174 http://vo.hse.ru/en/ DISCUSSION Vadim Radaev, Sergei Medvedev, Ekaterina Talalakina , Andrei Dementiev My Five Major Challenges as a Teacher Discussion. Moscow, National Research University Higher School of Economics, September 8, 2017 . .200 HISTORY OF EDUCATION Ekaterina Kostyleva Teacher Education and Advanced Training in German Set- tlements of the Taurida Governorate . 234 BOOK REVIEWS AND SURVEY ARTICLES Georgy Lyubarsky Different Schools to Different People: The Future of Univer- sal, Uniform and Quality Education Review of the book: Lyubzhin A. Sumerki vseobucha. Shkola dlya vsekh i ni dlya kogo [The Twilight of Universal Education. School for All and for Nobody] . 247 Natalya Borisenko “Barometers of Influence”, or Factors Which Have the Greatest Impact on Learning A Review of John C. Hattie (2009) Visible Learning: A Syn- thesis of Over 800 Meta-Analyses Relating to Achievement . 257 REFLECTIONS ON… Elena Voznesenskaya Rural Schools: Between the Scylla of “Continuity” and the Charybdis of “Excessiveness” . 266 http://vo.hse.ru/en/ Patterns of First-Graders’ Development at the Start of Schooling: Cluster Approach Based on the Results of iPIPS Project E. Kardanova, A. Ivanova, P. Sergomanov, T. Kanonir, I. Antipkina, D. Kaiky Received in Elena Kardanova Address: 20 Myasnitskaya St, 101000 September 2017 Candidate of Sciences in Mathematical Moscow, Russian Federation. Physics, Associate Professor, Head of Abstract. The first year at school is cru- the Center for Monitoring the Quality in cial for determining further academic Education, Institute of Education, Nation- achievement. Information on the range al Research University Higher School of of first-graders’ abilities and needs and Economics. Email: [email protected] prediction of their educational trajecto- Alina Ivanova ries allow the education system to facil- Junior Researcher, Center for Monitor- itate adaptation to school dramatical- ing the Quality in Education, Institute of ly and increase the efficiency of teach- Education, National Research Universi- ing approaches. The article presents the ty Higher School of Economics. Email: results of a survey of 7,778 first-grad- [email protected] ers enrolled in schools in four Russian Pavel Sergomanov cities — Moscow, Naberezhnye Chelny, Candidate of Sciences in Psychology, As- Sevastopol and Tambov — in 2015. Clus- sociate Professor, Director of the Center ter analysis of the data on children’s cog- for Leadership in Education, Institute of nitive skills (manifested in mathemati- Education, National Research University cal and reading literacy) and non-cog- Higher School of Economics. Email: pser- nitive (personal, social and emotional) [email protected] development produced four groups of Tatyana Kanonir first-graders with typical patterns of de- PhD, Associate Professor, Co-Head of velopment assessed at school entry. the Master’s Program “Measurements Combining cognitive and non-cognitive in Psychology and Education”, Institute indicators creates an additional opportu- of Education, National Research Univer- nity for understanding the peculiarities of sity Higher School of Economics. Email: child development in elementary school [email protected] and allows for building a “gallery” of four Inna Antipkina typical first-grader profiles. The findings Junior Researcher, Center for Monitor- can be used in helping teachers choose ing the Quality in Education, Institute of and customize education programs and The research was sup- Education, National Research University other means of supporting children dur- ported by a grant from Higher School of Economics. Email: ian- ing adaptation. the Russian Science [email protected] Keywords: first graders, iPIPS, base- Foundation (Project Diana Kaiky line assessment, progress measurement, Research Assistant, Center for Monitor- No. 16-18-10401 “Pre- cognitive development, non-cognitive de- ing the Quality in Education, Institute of dicting Teaching Ef- velopment, cluster analysis. fectiveness in Ele- Education, National Research Universi- ty Higher School of Economics. Email: mentary School”). DOI: 10.17323/1814-9545-2018-1-8-37 Translated from Russian [email protected] by I. Zhuchkova. http://vo.hse.ru/en/ THEORETICAL AND APPLIED RESEARCH Starting school is a critical period in