Dealing with Neighbors: In Search of Leadership: Fighting a Ring of Fire or A Critical Requirement for Governance, Building a Ring of Friends? Social Cohesion and Competitiveness? Trilogue Salzburg Trilogue Salzburg August 18 – 19, 2016 August 6 - 7, 2015 Background Paper Background Paper Trilogue Salzburg 2016 | Page 1 Table of Contents Overview ........................................................................................................................................... 4 Fighting a Ring of Fire or Creating a Ring of Friends ................................................................. 6 I Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 6 II Neighborhood: Shifting over Time .......................................................................................... 6 III What’s in the Toolbox? ........................................................................................................... 9 1. The European Approach: Money, Mobility and Market .................................................. 9 2. The American Approach: To Intervene or not to Intervene? ........................................ 10 3. The Chinese Approach: Carrot and Stick ..................................................................... 11 IV The New Dilemma: Being Close but Not Dependent ........................................................... 12 V Recommendations ................................................................................................................ 13 VI References ........................................................................................................................... 14 The European Neighbourhood Policy: Catalyst for Transformation or Paper Tiger? ........... 15 I Of Sweet Dreams and Rude Awakenings ............................................................................ 15 1. Departure in High Spirits ............................................................................................... 15 2. Landing in Hangover ..................................................................................................... 16 3. The Review of the Review ............................................................................................ 17 II Facing Up to the Challenges? .............................................................................................. 18 1. Too Many Actors and No Strategy ................................................................................ 19 2. Values Versus Interests ................................................................................................ 20 3. Conditionality and Funding ........................................................................................... 21 III Special Problem: Refugee and Migrant Crisis ..................................................................... 22 IV Neighbors of Neighbors ........................................................................................................ 23 V Key Lessons Learned – Recommendations ........................................................................ 24 Identity Politics, Sectarian Conflict, and Regional Political Rivalry in the Middle East ........ 26 I An Introduction to Sectarian Identities ................................................................................. 26 II Wider Dimensions ................................................................................................................ 31 1. Context: ......................................................................................................................... 31 2. Weak states and national identities .............................................................................. 34 III Conclusions .......................................................................................................................... 35 1. Iraq ................................................................................................................................ 36 2. Syria .............................................................................................................................. 41 3. Yemen ........................................................................................................................... 46 4. Bahrain .......................................................................................................................... 47 Page 2 | Trilogue Salzburg 2016 Background Paper IV Policy Recommendations ..................................................................................................... 48 1. Define each conflict – and its components – correctly ................................................. 49 2. Use the appropriate instruments at the correct time ..................................................... 52 3. Craft an appropriate policy for each conflict, and an integrating concept .................... 54 4. Prepare for integrated post-conflict reconstruction ....................................................... 55 5. Facilitate the emergence of sub-regional economic and security institutions .............. 56 Learning from an Asian Neighborhood Policy: Living with a Dragon Next Door .................. 58 I Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 58 II China’s Regional Role .......................................................................................................... 58 III Strategic Considerations ...................................................................................................... 59 IV The Issue of Taiwan and the Testing of Alliances ............................................................... 61 V Dealing with Chinese Insecurity: The Need for Strategic Flexibility .................................... 62 VI Looking at the Core Regional Relations ............................................................................... 62 1. Japan ............................................................................................................................. 63 2. India ............................................................................................................................... 63 3. Pakistan ......................................................................................................................... 64 4. Vietnam ......................................................................................................................... 64 5. ASEAN .......................................................................................................................... 64 6. South Korea .................................................................................................................. 65 VII One Belt, One Road ............................................................................................................. 65 VIII The Region Working Out China’s Role for the World .......................................................... 67 IX Policy Conclusions for the EU .............................................................................................. 68 Relating to One’s Neighborhood: A View from the United States ........................................... 69 I Bilateral and Sub-Regional Relationships in the Newest Age of Instability ......................... 69 II The U.S. and Latin America: Is There a U.S. “Neighborhood Policy” Toward the Region? ............................................... 71 III The Primacy of Migration...................................................................................................... 74 1. Canada .......................................................................................................................... 74 2. Latin America ................................................................................................................ 74 3. Mexico and Central America ......................................................................................... 75 IV Potential Lessons from the Way the U.S. Has Been Engaging with Key Countries in its Region .............................................................................................................................. 79 V Recommendations ................................................................................................................ 88 Background Paper Trilogue Salzburg 2016 | Page 3 Structures of European Neighborhood at a Time of Change ................................................... 90 I Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 90 II Transformative Factors ......................................................................................................... 91 1. Industry 4.0 .................................................................................................................... 91 2. War and Terrorism ........................................................................................................ 92 3. Climate Change ............................................................................................................. 92 4. Us and Them ................................................................................................................. 93 III The Politics of Trauma .........................................................................................................