Palestine 2030 Demographic Change: Opportunities for Development Full Report December 2016 Copy rights Prime Minister’s Office – State of Palestine United Nations Population Fund, UNFPA Research and Writing Team Dr. Youssef Courbage, Lead Consultant, Institut National d’Etudes Démographiques, Paris Dr. Bassam Abu Hamad, Consultant, Al-Quds University Dr. Adel Zagha, Non-resident Research Fellow, Palestine Economic Policy research Institute –MAS. Professor of Economics, Birzeit University Reviewed by Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics Dr. Majdi Malki, Dean of Faculty of Arts and Professor of Sociology at Birzeit University Dr. Michael Hermann, Senior Adviser on Economics and Demography, UNFPA, NY Edited by Ms. Charmaine Seitz Translation into Arabic Dr. Malek Qutteina Design and Printing TURBO Design Photo credit Chapter 1, page 22: © SHAREK Youth Forum Chapter 2, page 54: © UNESCO Chapter 3, page 90: © UNFPA Chapter 4, page 112: © Dana Al Bouz courtesy of ESNCM Chapter 5, page 124: © UNRWA Chapter 6, page 178: © UNFPA Chapter 7, page 194: © UNESCO Chapter 8, page 222: © courtesy of the Lutheran World Federation Chapter 9, page 240: © UNFPA Annexes, page 258: © UNFPA Cover Photo: The UNRWA Community Mental Health Programme (CMHP) team has been working with Palestine refugees in Gaza since 2002. © 2014 UNRWA Gaza. Photo by Fadi Thabet. Disclaimer: The analysis, recommendations and representation of material in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions whatsoever on the part of the Prime Minister’s Office, the National Population Committee and United Nations Population Fund UNFPA or any other contributing agencies. Foreword I would like to express my sincere gratitude to UNFPA and the UN more broadly as well as the National Population Committee for this important study. “Palestine 2030- Demographic Change: Opportunities for Development” underscores the need for policy makers to take into account the medium and longer term implications of demographic trends at the sector level. We must not only understand the challenges that the “youth bulge” in our population presents, but the opportunities provided by a growing, educated, motivated, young work force. Within Government, we certainly acknowledge the contribution to evidence-based policy that this study provides and will aim to ensure that we work productively with the Palestinian and international research communities to ensure that planning and decision-making are informed by demographic study. So yes, it is essential that we understand and reflect demographic trends and realities in our planning for health, education, transportation and all our socio-economic sectors. At the same time, we need to underscore how demographic reality amplifies the threat that occupation imposes. If we do not have access to our natural resources and cannot freely export our goods, where will the future jobs for our youth come from? Palestine’s youth is Palestine’s future and they must be given the right to shape their own futures. The world can only gain by unleashing the vast, creative potential of our young men and women. Let us take advantage of Palestine’s potential demographic dividend by welcoming the free, independent State of Palestine and its citizens into the international community of nations. Rami Hamdallah Prime Minister State of Palestine 4 PALESTINE 2030: Demographic Transition in Palestine and What it Means for Development Foreword It is my great pleasure to introduce the “Palestine 2030 – Demographic change: opportunities for development” study. It is the first report that provides comprehensive evidence and understanding of the linkages between population dynamics and development and where Palestine stands in terms of demographic transition. The study demonstrates how population trends and dynamics play a powerful role in development and therefore must be factored into planning and policy decision. It is clear that long term planning in Palestine is hampered by the decade long occupation and dependence on foreign assistance. Nevertheless by taking a long term view of Population Dynamics, I firmly believe that we can influence socio-economic development positively. Palestine and its people will benefit from this vital planning and forecasting tool. The present analysis focuses particularly on the demographic impact on key sectors such as Health, Education and the Labor Market. However, I am pleased that the core work has already been completed to do further analysis in other relevant sectors such as Energy, Water, Environmental Protection, Social Welfare and many more. I would like to invite interested partners to work with us in the coming years to complete the analysis in other areas relevant to the future of Palestine. The study has been a labor of academic and intellectual passion which evolved as a result of close cooperation between UNFPA, the Prime Minister’s office and National Population Committee. I am honored to express special thanks to lead researcher Dr. Youssef Courbage from Institut National d’Études Démographiques, whose academic credentials have ensured the highest level of methodological rigor and practical applicability. Special thanks also go to the team of Palestinian researchers Dr. Bassam Abu Hamad from Al-Quds University and Dr. Adel Zagha from Birzeit University and Palestine Economic Research Institute (MAS). Of course, the study would not have been possible had it not been for the excellent data available from Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics. I would also like to express my sincere appreciation to the UN Resident Coordinator Office for the financial support. It is my hope that the study will stimulate a vibrant discussion among policy makers, including the international community on how to best leverage financial and human resources to build a better future for all Palestinians. Anders Thomsen UNFPA Representative State of Palestine PALESTINE 2030: Demographic Transition in Palestine and What it Means for Development 5 Table of Contents Foreword by Prime Minister .......................................................................................................................... 4 Foreword by UNFPA Representative ........................................................................................................... 5 Table of Contents .............................................................................................................................................. 6 List of Acronyms ................................................................................................................................................ 10 Terminology ........................................................................................................................................................ 12 Executive Summary .......................................................................................................................................... 13 Chapter 1 Country Situation..................................................................................................... 22 A. Geopolitical context: Occupation and its development impact ............................................... 23 B. Economic context: Labour and human capital ............................................................................... 25 1. The Palestinian economy: Magnitude, nature, diversity and growth ............................... 26 2. Investment climate ......................................................................................................................... 35 3. Investment in employment generation and employability .................................................. 37 4. Investment in education and health........................................................................................... 39 5. Economic dependency ratio and labour productivity............................................................ 40 6. Poverty, social protection, benefits and welfare ..................................................................... 41 7. Progress towards international agreements and goals ........................................................ 43 C. Socio-cultural context: Gender and patriarchy .............................................................................. 46 1. Social and cultural norms ............................................................................................................. 46 2. Gender inequalities ......................................................................................................................... 48 (a) Education ................................................................................................................................. 48 (b) Gender-based violence ........................................................................................................ 48 (c) Female participation ............................................................................................................. 49 (d) Women’s reproductive role ................................................................................................ 51 (e) Legal perspectives ................................................................................................................. 51 Chapter 2 Population Dynamics in Palestine ........................................................ 54 A. Population growth and demographic transition ............................................................................ 55 B. Changes in age structure .....................................................................................................................