International Telecommunication Union IPv6IPv6 andand peerpeer 22 peerpeer internetinternet UnchartedUncharted territoriesterritories ofof revenuerevenue opportunitiesopportunities?? Yves Poppe Dir. IP Strategy Teleglobe Workshop on IPv6 Geneva, 22-23 June 2005 Agenda ITU-T o Any urgency ? o Some perceived drivers o Case Study Teleglobe Workshop on IPv6 Geneva, 22-23 June 2005 2 dates Why the acceleration? ITU-T o A telecom industry coming out of a major recession, object of relentless technological change and challenges on existing Business Models, subject to changing regulatory environments, desperate to regain some stability and renewed revenue growth • Consensus : the next multibillion revenue opportunities imply IP based network convergence, multi-functional end-devices, always on, always p2p reachable, mobility, QoS and end to end security. • “Non telecom” industries such as music, radio, television, advertising, publishing attracted in the maelstrom Workshop on IPv6 Geneva, 22-23 June 2005 3 dates What does IPv6 bring to the ITU-T table? o Solves address shortage o Neighbour discovery o Restores p2p • Ad-Hoc networking o Mobility • Home networks • Plug and play • Better spectrum utilization • Auto configuration • Better battery life! o Permanent addresses o Security • Identity (CLID) • Ipsec mandatory • Traceability (RFID) o Multicast • Sensors and monitoring ADSL, cable, 3G, Wi-Fi, Wi-Max provide the always-on Workshop on IPv6 Geneva, 22-23 June 2005 4 dates Agenda ITU-T o Any urgency ? o Some perceived drivers o Case Study Teleglobe Workshop on IPv6 Geneva, 22-23 June 2005 5 dates Some perceived IPv6 drivers ITU-T • Application domains: • Mobile IP Disruptive on most existing carrier • Voice, radio, TV over IP business models • Grid and Infiniband • Massive multiplayer games • RFID, control and sensor networks • Microsoft • Critical mass of: • digital communicating end-user devices • high speed always on access • National policies: • Research and Education networks • National Defense • National/regional policies and economic weight Workshop on IPv6 Geneva, 22-23 June 2005 6 dates 17 billion Traditional Networkable Devices! ITU-T Sun Microsystems estimates that including sensor and RFID networks the world could have a trillion communicating devices in a decade! Workshop on IPv6 Geneva, 22-23 June 2005 7 dates Mobile IP as IPv6 driver ITU-T o “Adoption of IPv6 in mobile infrastructure deployments will be the biggest driver in the migration to IPv6” - Gartner Dataquest sept 2004 - o Mobile nodes must be able to move from router to router without losing end-to-end connection • A home address to maintain connectivity • Many,many care-of address to maintain route-ability • billions of care-of addresses needed in the future: forget v4 • Not to mention that IPv6 saves spectrum and battery power! Workshop on IPv6 Geneva, 22-23 June 2005 8 dates What a market! ITU-T World Cellular Subscriber Distribution Subscriber Graphs from 3G Americas www.3gamericas.org Workshop on IPv6 Geneva, 22-23 June 2005 9 dates 3G : Mobile Broadband IP as IPv6 ITU-T driver o After the European bidding excesses and initial equipment delays 3G finally take off o Number of 3G/UMTS users reached 16 million end 2004 up from 10 million end Q3-04 (UMTS forum); 70 million units by end 2005 !? o 3GPP and 3GPP2 vision: high speed value added applications, seamless wireless mobility, portablility, location information for the world’s GSM and CDMA cellphones o 3GPP mandates IPv6 support in the Internet Multimedia subsystem(IMS) and the UMTS Terrestrial Remote Access Network (UTRAN) Workshop on IPv6 Geneva, 22-23 June 2005 10 dates Mobile IP broadcast as IPv6 driver ITU-T o DMB : Digital Media Broadcasting o TV phones: cellphone + built-in digital TV receiver • Add to jargon: mobisode = mobile episode o The promise: • Potentially 270 million subs worldwide by 2009 (Visiongain) • US revenue : from $32.7mil in 2005 to US$1.9bil in 2009 (Im-Stat) o IP datacast over DVB-H standards being finalized • DVB-H standard finalized at ETSI (dec 2004) • Implies full e2e solution and scaleable multicast! o The television industry considers mobile TV a major potential revenue producer Workshop on IPv6 Geneva, 22-23 June 2005 11 dates Peer to peer VoIP as IPv6 Driver ITU-T o Aug 29th 2003: Skype set up in Stockholm by Niklas Zennstrom and Janus Friis, founders of Kazaa. Promises high quality p2p phone calls over the internet to always on customers o April 6th 2004: launches PocketSkype for Wi-Fi hotspot access o Based on e2e VoIP, a good algorithm, PC’s with headsets. o mid April 2005 Skype reaches 100 million downloads, has 30+ million users, 1,500,000+ connected anytime, carried 7 billion+ free minutes!! Closing in on 10 billion by late june o “We have a big ambition with Skype: it is to make it the global telephone company” (Int’l Herald Tribune oct 13th 2003). o July 2004: Teleglobe, Level3, iBasis provide Skype PSTN termination. mid april 05 : 1,000,000 Skypeout customers . o Not bad at all for a not yet 2 year old – Congratulations – Workshop on IPv6 Geneva, 22-23 June 2005 12 dates IP Telephony ITU-T o VoIP: Choose your internet voice provider service plan • In North-America: Vonage, CallVantage, Packet8, Primus Lingo ... • 5+ million subscribers worldwide; expected to double in 2005 • Japan’s Yahoo BB is the biggest VoIP provider • Newer home routers such as D-Link 1402 router include VoIP routing • Market will really explode with dual wi-fi/cellphone end-devices o Enterprise VoIP: • IP PBX: 5.5 million lines installed in 2003 • IP centrex: perfect match for IPv6 Workshop on IPv6 Geneva, 22-23 June 2005 13 dates Digital radio as IPv6 driver ITU-T o Other neologism : podcast(ing): producing your own radio show on the internet. o Radio delivered by web, satellite and cellphones. o HD-Radio : CD quality sound; digital plus data alongside existing AM or FM channels. o Barriers to entry to a 21 billion $ industry (in the US) go down; XM, Sirius, Yahoo, MSN new names in broadcasting. o Standards battle : DAB (Digital Audio Broadcasting) ve DRM (Digital Radio Mondiale) vs HD-Radio’s IBOC (in-band on-channel) o Next : Visual Radio Broadcasting ? Workshop on IPv6 Geneva, 22-23 June 2005 14 dates iTV and IPTV as IPv6 driver ITU-T o 30 million TV’s in the USA alone with digital set-top boxes and interactive capability o iTV and IPv6 : targeted ad and content delivery, tracking of consumer data (ITA) o Forecasts of 200 million digital TV’s worldwide by 2007 and 20 million IPTV subscribers by 2008 (IPTV News) Workshop on IPv6 Geneva, 22-23 June 2005 15 dates Grids and IPv6 ITU-T o Grids going mainstream ESG • IBM : 11 datacenters around the world as computing grid • Sun Microsystems; grid on demand service o A key IPv6 attribute for the grid world is easy address renumbering • A grid needs reconfigurable uniform address spaces spanning physically dispersed virtual organizations o The GGF has an IPv6 WG Workshop on IPv6 Geneva, 22-23 June 2005 16 dates P2P multiplayer games as IPv6 Driver ITU-T o New acronomym : (M)MOG : (Massive) Multiplayer Online Game allows for easier differentiation with on-line gaming (gambling) o (M)MOG’s today are mostly client/server: creates serious bandwidth and processing bottlenecks o Sony’s Everquest: (as reported in Asian WS Journal nov 26th 03) • 500,000 users worldwide; average 22 hours/user.week on- line o Number one on-line game in China has 800,000 concurrent users! o Jupiter Research foresees that by 2006, connected consoles will surpass on-line action-PC gamers! Workshop on IPv6 Geneva, 22-23 June 2005 17 dates RFID’s as IPv6 driver ITU-T o 01/2005: The bandwagon started rolling • Wal-Mart Stores and DoD mandatory RFID support programs started. o RFID associations and forums are increasingly active o Generalized use of RFID implies terabytes of traffic daily. o RFID considered for authentication and for traceability o RFID tags on passports, banknotes, secure papers, concert entry ticket, casino chips, luggage tags …. o ISO and EPC sorting out standards Workshop on IPv6 Geneva, 22-23 June 2005 18 dates Control Networks as IPv6 driver ITU-T o Control Systems for process, factory and building automation have their own standards bodies with network technologies as key component o ethernet and IP fields are defined o Huge number of small nodes (sensors and actuators) o Acute need for autoconfiguration Workshop on IPv6 Geneva, 22-23 June 2005 19 dates Remote Manufacturing Systems ITU-T o Mobile Parts Hospital project • Specs for broken part are sent from a central data base at TACOM in Warren, Mich. Part is manufactured on-site by robotic milling machine. • Next generation: powdered steel deposited by a nozzle and fused by laser inside a fridge size box. o Rapid modelling and manufacturing • Medical: bones, tooth caps, MRI scan to 3D model • replacement parts in aerospace, automotive, oil industry etc. o Toward Neil Gerschenfeld’s “personal fabricators”? • From open-source software to open-source hardware Workshop on IPv6 Geneva, 22-23 June 2005 20 dates Sensor networks as IPv6 driver ITU-T o Self organizing sensor networks • Darpa sensit, Smart Dust, motes and follow-up projects • Pervasive computing, context-aware computing etc. • Habitat, water&pollution levels, structural integrity, biomedical o Intel’s vision • Radio Free Intel: vision of adding wireless capabilities to every device by integrating the radio circuits and systems directly into every component • Intel Deep Network projects: “Locally networking billions of embedded nodes, driving