Center for Energy Efficiency (CENEf) Energy efficiency in Buildings: Untapped Reserves for Uzbekistan Sustainable Development Moscow, November 2013 CONTENTS INTRODUCTION 5 ABBREVIATIO N S.............................................................................................................................................................................6 SUMMARY. MAJOR FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS RELATED TO ENERGY EFFICIENCY POLICIES IN THE UZBEKISTANI BUILDINGS SECTO R.............................................................................................................................................. 7 Housing and public buildings stock: 560 mln. m2 in 2011......................................................................................................7 More than 50% of primary energy is spent on energy supply to the buildings sector.........................................................8 Heatsupply systems of the Uzbekistan Republic are worn and inefficient..........................................................................10 A SET OF MATHEMATICAL MODELS WAS USED FOR ENERGY CONSUMPTION PROJECTIONS IN THE BUILDINGS SECTOR..........................11 In order to implement the energy saving potential, it is importantto pass the dense rock of energy EFFICIENCY BARRIERS......................................................................................................................................................................11 Energy efficiency activities in the Uzbekistani buildings sector have been spurred in the recent years, yet... THERE IS MUCH TO DO................................................................................................................................................................... 11 Baseline scenario.......................................................................................................................................................................12 "Step into the future" scenario.............................................................................................................................................. 12 "Soft way" scenario................................................................................................................................................................. 14 Costs and social and economic benefits.................................................................................................................................16 1. RESIDENTIAL STOCK SHAPE AND EVOLUTION............................................................................................................. 19 1.1. Residential stock evolution and structure.............................................................................................................19 1.2. New construction dynamics..................................................................................................................................... 21 1.3. Capital refurbishment dynam ics...............................................................................................................................21 1.4. Housing am enities......................................................................................................................................................22 1.5. A ppliances per household..........................................................................................................................................23 1.6. Energy and water meters saturation of housing.................................................................................................. 23 1.7. Residents' satisfaction with the housing and municipal utility services............................................................. 23 1.8. A ffordability of housing and municipal utility services........................................................................................ 23 1.9. Housing affordability................................................................................................................................................ 25 1.10. Assessment of the remaining buildingstock........................................................................................................... 27 2. ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN BUILDINGS........................................................................................................................29 2.1. Role of the buildings sector in Uzbekistani energy balance...................................................................................29 2.2. Residential energy consumption dynamics in 2000-2011...................................................................................... 32 2.3. Energy consumption for residential space heating................................................................................................ 35 2.4. Results of random energy audits of residential buildings....................................................................................39 2.4.1. Multifamily b uildin gs...................................................................................................................................... 39 2.4.2. Single-family houses........................................................................................................................................43 2.5. Energy consumption for residential hot water su pply..........................................................................................44 2.6. Energy consumption for residential cooking......................................................................................................... 45 2.7. Energy consumption for lighting purposes.............................................................................................................46 2.8. Energy consumption for air conditioning...............................................................................................................47 2.9. Energy consumption by major appliances................................................................................................................47 2.10. Energy consumption by electronic equipment and other appliances................................................................... 48 2.11. T he results of random audits of public buildings.................................................................................................. 49 3. THE SHAPE OF HEAT SUPPLY SYSTEM S.........................................................................................................................52 3.1. Heat balance...............................................................................................................................................................52 3.2. Uzbekistan heat sources............................................................................................................................................53 3.3. Heating netw orks......................................................................................................................................................59 2 4. ASSESSMENT OF THE ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL....................................................................................................61 4.1. Definitions of the technical, economic, and market energy saving potentials................................................... 61 4.2. Residential secto r......................................................................................................................................................61 4.3. Heat supply system s....................................................................................................................................................67 5. ANALYSIS OF BARRIERS TO ENERGY EFFICIENCY IN BUILDINGS..............................................................................71 6. ENERGY EFFICIENCY POLICIES IN BUILDINGS................................................................................................................75 6.1. T he Uzbekistan experience..........................................................................................................................................75 6.2. Comparing measures implemented in Uzbekistan buildings with the IEA recommendations............................. 76 6.2.1. Measures related to the building codes, windows and translucent structures....................................76 6.2.2. Improving energy efficiency of appliances................................................................................................. 77 6.2.3. Improving the energy efficiency of lighting................................................................................................ 78 7. ENERGY EFFICIENCY SCENARIOS IN THE BUILDINGS SECTO R.................................................................................. 80 7.1. Macroeconomic projection...................................................................................................................................... 80 7.2. Baseline scenario........................................................................................................................................................ 86 7.2.1. Residential buildings........................................................................................................................................86 7.2.1.1. Baseline scenario assumptions...................................................................................................................... 86 7.2.1.2. Baseline scenario calculations......................................................................................................................