Army Fires Capabilities for 2025 and Beyond John Gordon IV, Igor Mikolic-Torreira, D. Sean Barnett, Katharina Ley Best, Scott Boston, Dan Madden, Danielle C. Tarraf, Jordan Willcox C O R P O R A T I O N For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR2124 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-0-8330-9967-9 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2019 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Cover: Army photo by Spc. Josselyn Fuentes. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface This report documents research and analysis conducted as part of a project entitled Army Fires for Army 2025, sponsored by the Field Artil- lery School at Fort Sill, Oklahoma (a part of the U.S. Army Train- ing and Doctrine Command). The purpose of this project was to pro- vide an independent assessment of the fires capabilities the Army will need, from the brigade combat team-level to echelons above division, in future conventional combined arms maneuver operations in the 2025 and beyond timeframe, and determine options for meeting these fires requirements from both organic Army as well as joint systems. The assessment includes direct support, long-range strike, counterfire, the associated target acquisition requirements, and mission command issues. The majority of the research for this project was conducted in 2016–2017. The document then went through a lengthy security review that was completed in August 2019, when it was determined that the report could be released to the public. This research was conducted within the RAND Arroyo Cen- ter’s Forces and Logistics Program. RAND Arroyo Center, part of the RAND Corporation, is a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the United States Army. RAND operates under a “Federal-Wide Assurance” (FWA00003425) and complies with the Code of Federal Regulations for the Protection of Human Subjects Under United States Law (45 CFR 46), also known as “the Common Rule,” as well as with the implementa- tion guidance set forth in DoD Instruction 3216.02. As applicable, this compliance includes reviews and approvals by RAND’s Institutional Review Board (the Human Subjects Protection Committee) and by the iii iv Army Fires Capabilities for 2025 and Beyond U.S. Army. The views of sources utilized in this study are solely their own and do not represent the official policy or position of DoD or the U.S. Government. Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures ............................................................................. ix Tables .............................................................................. xi Summary .........................................................................xiii Acknowledgments .............................................................. xix CHAPTER ONE Introduction ....................................................................... 1 Contrasting the Counterinsurgency Environment to Today’s Conventional Combat Realities ............................................. 3 Advances in the Fires Capability of Other Nations ............................ 4 Purpose of This Research .......................................................... 5 CHAPTER TWO Future Army Fires Planning Scenarios ....................................... 7 Introduction ........................................................................ 7 Russia ................................................................................ 9 North Korea ...................................................................... 24 Iran................................................................................. 42 Iraq/ISIL ...........................................................................51 China/Pacific ......................................................................58 CHAPTER THREE Threat Capabilities Relating to Army Fires .................................69 Target Sets .........................................................................69 Counters ............................................................................74 Threats ..............................................................................75 v vi Army Fires Capabilities for 2025 and Beyond CHAPTER FOUR U.S. Army Current and Potential Indirect Fire Capabilities ........... 77 Current Capability ............................................................... 77 The Current Program of Record ............................................... 84 Foreign Artillery Programs for Possible U.S. Army Use ..................... 86 CHAPTER FIVE Joint Fires ........................................................................ 87 Joint Fires Capabilities ........................................................... 88 Air-to-Surface Strike Capabilities .............................................. 90 Surface-to-Surface Strike Capabilities ......................................... 98 Ship-to-Shore Strike Capabilities.............................................. 101 Counterfire ....................................................................... 106 Suppression of Enemy Air Defense ........................................... 107 CHAPTER SIX Targeting ........................................................................ 109 Introduction ..................................................................... 109 U.S. Army Targeting Capabilities to 2030 ................................... 111 Other Service Targeting Platforms, 2016–2030 ............................. 124 The Performance of Army and Joint Targeting and ISR Capabilities in Future Scenarios ........................................................ 138 Conclusions ...................................................................... 145 CHAPTER SEVEN Capability Gaps ................................................................ 147 Overview ......................................................................... 147 Sense .............................................................................. 148 Decide ............................................................................ 157 Strike.............................................................................. 167 Summary ......................................................................... 174 CHAPTER EIGHT Recommendations ............................................................. 177 Summary vii APPENDIX Army Indirect Fires in an Operational Context: A Historical Analysis (1985–2003) with a View Toward the Baltics (2020) ... 185 Abbreviations ................................................................... 209 References ...................................................................... 215 Figures S.1. U.S. Army Fires Compared with Russian Fires in a Baltics Scenario .............................................................. xvi 2.1. The Baltic States......................................................11 2.2. Russian Operational Plan and NATO Defense ..................18 2.3. Russian A2AD/Sensor-Strike Concept ............................19 2.4. Status of Battle After Initial Ground Combat Phase ........... 20 2.5. Imbalance Between NATO and Russian Long-Range Fires Capabilities .......................................................... 22 2.6. The Korean Peninsula .............................................. 26 2.7. North Korean Ground Forces ......................................29 2.8. Status of Battle After Initial Ground Combat Phase ........... 34 2.9. Potential Development of Allied Counteroffensive into North Korea ..........................................................35 2.10. ROK/U.S. Attack onto Kaesong Heights ........................ 40 2.11. Iran and the Strait of Hormuz .................................... 44 2.12. Persian Gulf Region, Iranian Naval Bases, and Reach of Anti-Ship Missiles ...................................................45 2.13. Allied Strait of Hormuz Operations Against Iran .............. 50 2.14. Syria and Iraq.........................................................53 2.15. Coalition Offensive Against ISIL ................................. 56 2.16. Western Pacific Ocean ............................................. 60 2.17. South China Sea and Disputed Territories .......................61 2.18. Reach of 1,200-km Missile System in Western Pacific ..........63 2.19. Potential Coverage of LBASM for Interdicting Chinese Maritime Traffic