TRUST AND MISTRUST: A CASE OF PAK-AFGHAN STRAINED RELATIONS (2001-2008) By: TEHSEENA USMAN Ph.D. (Research Scholar) Department of International Relations UNIVERSITY OF PESHAWAR SESSION: 2005-2006 TRUST AND MISTRUST: A CASE OF PAK-AFGHAN STRAINED RELATIONS (2001-2008) A Thesis submitted to the Department of International Relations, University of Peshawar, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the award of the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS SESSION: 2005-2006 APPROVAL SHEET The thesis entitled “Trust and Mistrust: A Case of Pak-Afghan Strained Relations (2001-2008)” submitted by Tehseena Usman in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in International Relations is hereby approved by the supervisory committee. External Examiner: Name: Designation: Institution: Supervisor: Name: Designation: Institution: Chairman: Name: Institution: Date: Declaration I hereby declare that this thesis is my own work and effort and that it has not been submitted anywhere for any award. Where other sources of information have been used they have been acknowledged. Signature Asia is but a body of mud and water. Its throbbing heart is the Afghan Nation. The Afghan nation’s relief gives relief to Asia and its corruptions corrupts Asia. Allama Mohammad Iqbal1 1Allama Mohammad Iqbal is the national poet of Pakistan, born in Nov, 1877 and died in April, 1937. i CONTENTS S. No. Title Page No. List of Maps iv List of Acronyms and Abbreviations vii Acknowledgments viii Abstract x CHAPTER-1: INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Statement of the Problem 10 1.2 Research Questions 11 1.3 Aims and Objective of the Study 12 1.4 Significance 12 1.5 Methodology 15 1.6 Chapter Structure 17 CHAPTER-2: THEORETICAL FRAME WORK 20 2.1 Mistrust in Bilateral Relations and Prisoner‟s Dilemma 22 2.2 Trust and Prisoner‟s Dilemma 27 2.3 Pak-Afghan Relations and Prisoner‟s Dilemma 31 2.4 Can Pakistan and Afghanistan Break the Prisoner‟s Dilemma 39 CHAPTER 3: TRUST DEFICIT IN PAK-AFGHAN RELATIONS: A 48 HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE (1947-2001) 3.1 Pak-Afghan Relations: Genesis of Mistrust 52 3.1.1 Durand Line Issue: A Historical Reason of Pak-Afghan Mistrust 53 3.1.2 Pushtunistan Issue and Pak-Afghan Mutual Mistrust 57 3.1.3 Afghanistan‟s Islamist Movement and Pakistan Support to 76 Islamists: A Contributory Factor in Pak-Afghan Mistrust 3.1.4 Revival of Pushtunistan Rhetoric: A Root Cause of Mistrust 80 3.2 Pakistan Support to Taliban and its Impact on Pak-Afghan 92 Relations 3.2.1 Pak-Taliban Policy: Implications and Drawbacks 101 3.3 Conclusion 105 ii CHAPTER 4: MISTRUST: ISSUES STRAINING PAK-AFGHAN 110 RELATIONS AND MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS IN POST TALIBAN ERA 4.1 Resurgence Of Taliban, Terrorism and FATA Factor: A 113 Contributing Factor in Pak-Afghan Mistrust in Post Taliban Era (2001-2008) 4.1.1 Blame Game and Mistrust 126 4.2 Post Taliban Status of Durand Line 134 4.3 Transit Trade Issue/Smuggling 137 4.4 Drug Trafficking 143 4.5 Refugee Repatriation 152 4.6 Water Resource Issue 159 4.7 Conclusion 163 CHAPTER-5: REGIONAL GEO-POLITICS IN AFGHANISTAN AND ITS 166 IMPACT ON PAK-AFGHAN RELATIONS: A FACTOR IN MISTRUST 5.1 US Factor in Pak-Afghan Relations 169 5.2 Iran Factor in Pak-Afghan Relations 188 5.3 India Factor in Pak-Afghan Relations 195 5.3.1 India‟s Objectives in Afghanistan 199 5.3.2 India Role in Afghanistan Reconstruction: Indo- Pak Competition 206 in Afghanistan 5.4 Conclusion 213 CHAPTER-6: COOPERATION WITHOUT TRUST: PAKISTAN’S ROLE 217 IN AFGHANISTAN’S RECONSTRUCTION AND FUTURE PROSPETS 6.1 Bonn Agreement: A Step towards Political Transition and 222 Afghanistan‟s Reconstruction 6.2 Pakistan‟s Role in Afghanistan‟s Reconstruction 225 6.2.1 Communication 230 6.2.2 Health 231 iii 6.2.3 Education 233 6.3 Evaluation of Pak-Afghan Cooperation: Diplomatic, Security and 234 Economic Relations in Post Taliban Era (2001-2008) 6.4 Possible Avenues of Cooperation: Gwadar Port and its Prospects 247 for Pakistan and Afghanistan 6.4.1 Afghanistan in SAARC and ECO: Prospects and Its Impact on Pak- 250 Afghan Relations 6.4.2 Pakistan Energy Crises and Importance of CARs via Afghanistan 255 6.4.3 Trans-Afghan Gas pipeline (TAPI) and its Implications 259 6.5 Conclusion 263 CHAPTE-7 CONCLUSIONS 265 7.1 Major Findings and Recommendations 267 7.2 How Mistrust Can be Overcome 289 7.2.1 Policy of Reassurance 290 7.2.2 Policy of Reciprocity 293 7.3 Major Findings and Recommendations Related to FATA 296 7.4 US and International Community 302 Bibliography 306 Appendixes 317 iv LIST OF MAPS/ILLUSTRATIONS S. No. Title Page No. 1. Map of Afghanistan v 2. Map of Pakistan vi 3. Map of Durand Line 53 4. Map of Pushtunistan 57 5 Picture Of Pushtunistan Square 75 6. Map of FATA 113 7. Picture of Bara Market, Peshawar 156 8. Map of Central Asia 258 9. Map Of TAPI 262 v MAP OF AFGHANISTAN Source: http://www.worldatlas.com/webimage/countrys/asia/lgcolor/afcolor.htm vi MAP OF PAKISTAN Source: http://www.worldatlas.com/webimage/countrys/asia/lgcolor/pk vii LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABREVIATIONS AJ&K Azad (free) Jammu and Kashmir [Pakistani controlled Kashmir] ATT Afghanistan Transit Trade CARs Central Asian Republics CENTO Central Treaty Organization CIA Central Intelligence Agency ECO Economic Cooperation Organization FATA Federally Administered Tribal Areas FC Frontier Corps GATT General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade IED Improvised Explosive Device ISAF International Security Assistance Force In Afghanistan ISI Inter Service Intelligence JI Jamaat-e-Islami JUI Jamiat-Ulema-Islam KP Khyber Pukhtunkhwa MOU Memorandum of Understanding NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization NGO Non Governmental Organization NWFP North West Frontier Province RAW Research and Analysis Wing RAM Riyast-i-Amniyat-i-Milli SAARC South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation TAPI Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India Pipeline TTP Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan UNHCR United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees UNOCAL Union Oil Company of California viii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I am thankful to Allah Almighty who is Omni present and shines the eternity on us all; without Whom no task is possible and without Whose name no endeavor is worth undertaking. Thank you Allah Almighty for answering my prayers, for giving me the strength to plod on. This research would not have been possible without the guidance and the help of several individuals who in one way or another contributed and extended their valuable assistance in the preparation and completion of this study. I am indebted to my honorable supervisor Professor Dr. Nasreen Ghufran for her insight, thought provoking questions, continuous help and guidance in completing my thesis. I would like to thank my parents and my other family members for providing me the learning environment necessary for me, their support, prayers and love. Any research work necessarily involves the input and assistance of a large number of different voices and perspective. In this regard, I am thankful to many government and non government officials, analysts, many Afghans and people from daily walk of life. Their help was indispensable for the completion of this work. I am also grateful to Prof. Dr. Adnan Sarwar, Professor Marvin G. Weinbaum, Rahimullah Yousafzai, Prof. Dr. Ijaz Khattak, Prof. Dr. Fakhr-ul-Islam, and Ms. Minhas Majeed who were instrumental in completion of my research work, who gave constant feed back over the course of years and generously offered their precious time despite their busy schedule. In addition, I am also very indebted to His Excellency Mohammad Sadiq, Ambassador of ix Pakistan in Kabul, Syed Fida Younus and Rtd. Major Dr. Khalil-ur-Rehman who not only lent help in providing inputs, but also shared first hand information. Above all, I have to thank all my teachers who taught me a huge amount, provided me unfailing support and contributed to my learning experience. Last but not the least, I have been fortunate to come across many good friends. Without whom my life would be bleak. In this regard, I owe my deepest gratitude to Junaid Khan who shared his books with me and guided me when I would find myself disillusioned. Tehseena Usman x ABSTRACT Pakistan relations with Afghanistan have mostly been frail, based on mutual mistrust which has never allowed the two countries to establish closer ties. In post Taliban era, Pakistan recognized Hamid Karzai government and expressed its desire of establishing friendly relations but nature of relationship was fragile and mistrust was dominant. Their bilateral relations during (2001-2008) showed heightened mistrust which inhibited the development of strong and stable relationship and presented a situation of Prisoner‟s Dilemma. Several issues strained their relations and were responsible for widening trust gap. Mistrust in the fight against terrorism, cross border infiltration, blame game, safe havens in FATA and regional factors complicated the situation and halted cooperation between the two neighbors. Pakistan and Afghanistan are security seekers but concrete steps for bringing peace and security are lacking on their part. A friendly and secure Afghanistan is very much important for Pakistan‟s future stability, security and prosperity and vice versa. Mistrust and causes of friction, if not removed, will complicate the process of maintaining friendly relations and threaten regional peace and security. The study therefore, highlights the causes of friction and recommends breaking the Prisoner‟s Dilemma to establish relations based on mutual trust and cooperation. 1 Chapter-1 Trust and Mistrust: A Case of Pak-Afghan Strained Relations (2001-2008) Trust and mistrust is a central theme in Pak-Afghan relations.