FOAHN Report Shropshire Council Full Objectively Assessed Housing Need Report th Published: 4 July 2016 CONTENTS 1. Executive Summary ......................................................................... 4 Introduction......................................................................................................... 4 The Housing Market Area (HMA) ....................................................................... 4 Population and Household Projections ............................................................... 4 Adjustment Factors ............................................................................................ 4 Past Planning Policy ................................................................................................. 5 Past Housing Provision ............................................................................................ 5 Market Signals ......................................................................................................... 5 Future Jobs and Employment ................................................................................... 6 Other Factors ........................................................................................................... 6 Affordable Housing Need ................................................................................... 7 The FOAHN for Shropshire ................................................................................ 7 2. Introduction……………… ................................................................ 9 Full Objectively Assessed Housing Need (FOAHN) ........................................... 9 Links to the Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA) .............................. 9 The purpose of this report .................................................................................. 9 3. Defining the Housing Market Area (HMA) ...................................... 10 Introduction....................................................................................................... 10 How to define a HMA ....................................................................................... 10 HMAs identified at the national level ................................................................ 10 Self-containment of Shropshire ........................................................................ 12 Migration flows ....................................................................................................... 12 Travel to work areas ............................................................................................... 17 The relationship between housing demand and supply .......................................... 21 Conclusion........................................................................................................ 23 4. Population and Household Projections .......................................... 24 Introduction....................................................................................................... 24 Demographic Change ...................................................................................... 24 Household Change ........................................................................................... 24 Adjustments and Sensitivity Testing ................................................................. 24 5. Past Housing Policy and Provision ................................................ 26 Introduction....................................................................................................... 26 Implications of Planning Policy ......................................................................... 26 Past Policies on Housing Requirement and Supply ................................................ 26 Past Housing Delivery ............................................................................................ 28 Past Housing Need Forecasts ................................................................................ 29 Conclusion ............................................................................................................. 30 Implications of Past Provision ........................................................................... 31 Introduction ............................................................................................................ 31 Conclusion ............................................................................................................. 32 6. Market Signals ............................................................................... 33 Introduction....................................................................................................... 33 Summary .......................................................................................................... 34 Conclusion........................................................................................................ 39 7. Other Potential Adjustment Factors ............................................... 42 Introduction....................................................................................................... 42 Shropshire Council – Full Objectively Assessed Housing Need (2016) Page 1 Analysis ............................................................................................................ 42 Conclusion........................................................................................................ 46 8. Affordable Housing Need in Shropshire ......................................... 47 Introduction....................................................................................................... 47 Relationship: FOAHN and affordable housing need assessments ................... 47 The definition of need ............................................................................................. 47 Implications of the definition of need ...................................................................... 48 How to address need ............................................................................................. 48 Conclusion ............................................................................................................. 48 Affordable housing needs assessment ............................................................. 50 Introduction ............................................................................................................ 50 Summary ................................................................................................................ 51 Conclusion ............................................................................................................. 52 9. Future Jobs and Employment ........................................................ 53 Introduction....................................................................................................... 53 Economic Development Needs Assessment (EDNA) ...................................... 53 Introduction ............................................................................................................ 53 Methodology........................................................................................................... 53 Jobs and Economic Growth .................................................................................... 54 Results ................................................................................................................... 55 Forecasts: Future Labour Force of Shropshire ................................................. 56 Introduction ............................................................................................................ 56 Methodology........................................................................................................... 56 Results ................................................................................................................... 56 Labour Market Balance .................................................................................... 56 Conclusions ...................................................................................................... 58 10. Full Objective Assessment of Housing Need ................................. 60 Introduction………… ................................................................................ 60 The Scenarios .......................................................................................... 60 Conclusion…………. ................................................................................ 62 The FOAHN for Shropshire .............................................................................. 62 The Need for All Types of Housing in Shropshire ............................................. 63 APPENDICES Appendix A. Population and Household Projections ............................... 65 2012-based Sub-National Population Projections (SNPP)* .............................. 65 2012-based Sub-National Household Projections (SNHP)* ............................. 65 Appendix B. Allocation and Windfall Policies (pre-Shropshire Council) . 66 Appendix C. Allocation and Windfall Policies (Shropshire Council) ....... 67 Appendix D. Market Signals Analysis ..................................................... 70 Land Prices ...................................................................................................... 70 House Prices .................................................................................................... 70 Market Rents ...................................................................................................