A quantitative analysis of the perceived quality for popular movies by consumers, experts and peers Student name: Ruth Bos Student number: 409141 Supervisor: Dr. P. Bhansing Erasmus School of History, Culture and Communication Erasmus University Rotterdam Cultural Economics and Entrepreneurship Master Thesis June 8, 2016 Master Thesis “Quality time at the movies” Ruth Bos - 409141 ABSTRACT Academic research pertained to the marketing of motion pictures has identified the importance of quality on the commercial success of popular movies with indicators as consumer evaluations, expert ratings and peer-recognized awards as the Academy Awards. However, most researchers fail to analyze the quality of a movie as a measurement of performance of a movie. The current study extents previous research by aiming to measure the perceived quality of consumers, experts and peers for popular movies, based on the assumptions made on the success factors for commercial performance in previous marketing literature. Through a quantitative internet content analysis, data was gathered on the motion picture industry. The models were tested with a sample of 320 movies released between 2000-2015. Results show that the perceived quality of consumers overlap with the perceived quality of experts, which contradicts statements about the ‘little taste’ of consumers. Moreover, the data shows that there is a difference between the perceived quality of consumers and the commercial success of a movie, measured in box office revenue. However, for both commercial success and the perceived quality of consumers, popular appeal is still important for the satisfaction of the consumer. Managerial and theoretical implications, as well as limitations and directions for future research are offered. Keywords: perceived quality, popular movies, consumer evaluations, expert evaluation, peer-recognition 2 Master Thesis “Quality time at the movies” Ruth Bos - 409141 Table of content Introduction ................................................................................................................................................... 6 1. Theoretical framework ........................................................................................................................ 11 1.1 General characteristics of the motion picture industry ..................................................................... 11 1.2 Perceived quality of a movie ............................................................................................................. 14 1.2.1 Selection system theory. ............................................................................................................ 15 1.3 Factors that influence the commercial success of a movie ............................................................... 17 1.3.1 Consumer evaluations ................................................................................................................ 17 1.3.2 Critics’ ratings ............................................................................................................................ 22 1.4.3 Awards ....................................................................................................................................... 24 1.4.4 Genre .......................................................................................................................................... 25 1.4.5 Story adaptation ......................................................................................................................... 26 1.4.5 Star power .................................................................................................................................. 27 1.4.6 MPAA ratings ............................................................................................................................ 28 2. Method ................................................................................................................................................ 30 2.1 Research design ................................................................................................................................ 30 2.1.1 Methodology .............................................................................................................................. 31 2.1.2. Population ................................................................................................................................. 31 2.1.3 Sampling method ....................................................................................................................... 32 2.2 Models .............................................................................................................................................. 33 2.2.1 Consumers .................................................................................................................................. 33 2.2.2 Experts ....................................................................................................................................... 34 2.2.3 Peers ........................................................................................................................................... 34 2.3 Statistical analysis ............................................................................................................................. 36 2.4 Data collection .................................................................................................................................. 38 2.4.1 Consumers evaluation ................................................................................................................ 38 2.4.2 Critic ratings ............................................................................................................................... 40 2.4.3 Peer recognition ......................................................................................................................... 41 2.4.4 Genre .......................................................................................................................................... 42 2.4.5 Story adaptation ......................................................................................................................... 43 2.4.6 Star power .................................................................................................................................. 43 2.4.7 MPAA rating .............................................................................................................................. 44 2.4.8 3D or IMAX ............................................................................................................................... 44 3 Master Thesis “Quality time at the movies” Ruth Bos - 409141 2.4.9 Competition and seasonality ...................................................................................................... 44 2.4.10 Box office revenue, budget and profit ...................................................................................... 45 2.4.11 Distributors and land of production ......................................................................................... 45 2.4.12 Duration of the movie .............................................................................................................. 46 3. Results ................................................................................................................................................. 47 3.1 Descriptive statistics ......................................................................................................................... 47 3.1.1 Consumer evaluations ................................................................................................................ 47 3.1.2 Expert evaluation: Ratings from critics...................................................................................... 52 3.1.3 Peer recognition: Awards ........................................................................................................... 53 3.1.4 Genre and story adaptation ........................................................................................................ 58 3.1.5 Star power .................................................................................................................................. 61 3.1.6 MPAA rating .............................................................................................................................. 61 3.1.7 3D or IMAX ............................................................................................................................... 61 3.1.8 Competition and seasonality. ..................................................................................................... 62 3.1.9 Box office revenue, budget and profit........................................................................................ 63 3.1.10 Distribution company and land of production ......................................................................... 65 3.1.11 Duration of the movie .............................................................................................................. 65 3.2 Inferential statistics ........................................................................................................................... 67 4.2.1 The market ................................................................................................................................. 67 4.2.2 Experts ......................................................................................................................................