Scholars' Mine Doctoral Dissertations Student Theses and Dissertations Spring 2019 Assessment and prediction of surface water vulnerability from non-point source pollution in Midwestern watersheds Fadhil K. Jabbar Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarsmine.mst.edu/doctoral_dissertations Part of the Geological Engineering Commons Department: Geosciences and Geological and Petroleum Engineering Recommended Citation Jabbar, Fadhil K., "Assessment and prediction of surface water vulnerability from non-point source pollution in Midwestern watersheds" (2019). Doctoral Dissertations. 2781. https://scholarsmine.mst.edu/doctoral_dissertations/2781 This thesis is brought to you by Scholars' Mine, a service of the Missouri S&T Library and Learning Resources. This work is protected by U. S. Copyright Law. Unauthorized use including reproduction for redistribution requires the permission of the copyright holder. For more information, please contact [email protected]. ASSESSMENT AND PREDICTION OF SURFACE WATER VULNERABILITY FROM NON-POINT SOURCE POLLUTION IN MIDWESTERN WATERSHEDS by FADHIL KASSIM JABBAR A DISSERTATION Presented to the Faculty of the Graduate School of the MISSOURI UNIVERSITY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY in GEOLOGICAL ENGINEERING 2019 Approved by: Katherine Grote, Advisor David Rogers David Borrok Robert Tucker Dev Niyogi © 2019 Fadhil Kassim Jabbar All Rights Reserved iii PUBLICATION DISSERTATION OPTION This dissertation consists of the following two articles, formatted in the style used by the Missouri University of Science and Technology: Paper I: Pages 14-61 have been published in Journal of Environmental Science and Pollution Research. Paper II: Pages 62-100 have been submitted to Journal of Environmental Science and Pollution Research. Paper III: Pages 101-141 have been submitted to Journal of Ecological Engineering. iv ABSTRACT Non-point source pollution is the leading cause of impairment in surface water in the Midwest. In this research, we seek to predict which watersheds are most vulnerable to point source pollution without field sampling using publically available GIS databases. Watersheds with higher vulnerability ratings can then be targeted for water quality monitoring, and funds used to improve watershed health can be distributed with greater efficacy. To better understand and target watershed vulnerability, we used three different approaches. In the first project, 35 sub-watersheds were sampled in the Lower Grand Watershed, which is a highly agricultural watershed in northern Missouri/southern Iowa. Statistical analyses were performed to determine which of these parameters were most correlated with water quality, and predictive relationships of water quality were developed. In the second project, a new methodology for watershed vulnerability to non-point source pollution was developed. Using the results from our first study to guide the weighting of different parameters, a weighted overlay and analytical hierarchy method was used to predict the vulnerability (poor water quality) of watersheds. This new vulnerability prediction method was tested on ten sub-watersheds within the Eagle Creek Watershed in central Indiana, which has a mixture of agricultural, forested, and urban land use. In the last project, the robustness of the new watershed vulnerability assessment method was tested using hydrological modeling. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) modeling program was used to model non-point source pollution in the Eagle Creek sub- watersheds. The results of these models provided a second method for verifying the robustness of the newly developed watershed vulnerability assessment method. v ACKNOWLEDGMENTS First and foremost, thanks to Allah (God) for helping me and giving me the blessings to complete this work. Second, I would like to express my deep gratitude to the Iraqi Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research (MOHESR) and Ministry of Water Resources for rewarding me a fully funded scholarship. I would like to express an especial gratitude to my PhD advisor, Dr. Katherine Grote, for her encouragement, advice and valuable suggestions that helped me to accomplish my goals of finishing this research. She has always been an excellent mentor, supporter during the whole study. I would also like to thank Dr. Robert Tucker for his tremendous mentorship along my PhD study. I would also like to proffer my appreciation to the members of my Committee, Dr. David Rogers, Dr. David Borrok, and Dr. Dev Niyogi, for their time, valuable advice and recommendations. Furthermore, I want to extend my thanks to my colleagues in the Missouri S&T Geological Engineering Department for their assistance helped during the period of field work: Victoria Havens, Denise Mathews, Taylor Steffen, and Christina Sehrt. Special thanks to my friend, Majid Mohamod for his valuable assistance during the substantial period of fieldwork. I am very thankful to my friends in my home country and Rolla, for their support and encouragement. Ultimately, I want to express my unending gratitude and love for my parents, my brother, Raad, as well as my wonderful wife, Lamya, and my lovely sons, Moamel, Mohamed, and Ali, for their love, support, encouragement, and prayers they have afforded me throughout my study. Without them, this study would have never been completed. vi TABLE OF CONTENTS Page PUBLICATION DISSERTATION OPTION ................................................................... iii ABSTRACT ....................................................................................................................... iv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ...................................................................................................v LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS ............................................................................................. xi LIST OF TABLES ........................................................................................................... xiii SECTION 1. INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................... 1 1.1. OVERVIEW ....................................................................................................... 1 2. LITERATURE REVIEW ........................................................................................... 4 2.1. IMPACTS OF AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES ON WATER QUALITY ..... 4 2.2. IMPACTS OF URBANIZATION ON WATER QUALITY ............................. 6 2.3. IMPACT OF GEOLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGICAL FACTORS ON WATER QUALITY ........................................................................................... 8 2.4. AQUATIC INSECTS (MACROINVERTEBRATES) AS INDICATOR OF WATERSHED HEALTH .................................................................................. 9 2.5. ASSESSMENT OF WATERSHED VULNERABILITY ................................ 10 3. RESEARCH OBJECTIVES..................................................................................... 13 PAPER I. STATISTICAL ASSESSMENT OF NONPOINT SOURCE POLLUTION IN AGRICULTURAL WATERSHEDS IN THE LOWER GRAND RIVER WATERSHED, MO, USA ........................................................................................... 14 ABSTRACT .......................................................................................................................14 vii 1. INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................... 15 2. METHODS AND MATERIALS ............................................................................. 19 2.1. SITE BACKGROUND ..................................................................................... 19 2.2. DATA ACQUISITION AND PROCESSING ................................................. 20 2.3. GIS DATA PROCESSING .............................................................................. 25 2.4. PRECIPITATION ............................................................................................. 25 3. WATER QUALITY PARAMETERS...................................................................... 28 3.1. DATA ACQUISITION..................................................................................... 28 3.2. SUMMARY OF WATER QUALITY PARAMETERS .................................. 30 3.3. STATISTICAL DATA ANALYSIS ................................................................ 31 4. RESULTS ................................................................................................................. 33 4.1. SUMMARY STATISTICS OF WATER QUALITY PARAMETERS ........... 33 4.2. PAIRWISE COMPARISON OF FALL AND SPRING DATA ...................... 34 4.3. SIMPLE REGRESSION .................................................................................. 35 4.4. STEPWISE MULTIPLE REGRESSION ......................................................... 39 4.5. WATER QUALITY AND BIOTIC INDEXES ............................................... 43 4.6. PRINCIPAL COMPONENT ANALYSIS ....................................................... 43 5. DISCUSSION .......................................................................................................... 48 6. CONCLUSIONS ...................................................................................................... 51 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS .................................................................................................53 REFERENCES ..................................................................................................................54