Ref. Ares(2017)3992486 - 10/08/2017 SCORE Scoreboard of Competitiveness of European Transport Manufacturing Industry Coordination and Support Action under H2020-MG-8.1-2016 Deliverable 2.2: Push and pull factors for industry as derived from comprehensive demand side analysis Deliverable 2.2: Push and pull factors for industry as derived from comprehensive demand side analysis Document change record Version Date Status Author Description 0.1 24/03/2017 Draft Konstantin Konrad Draft document structure Andrea Diaz; Andrzej Changes to structure & KPI 0.2 07/04/2017 Draft Montwill, Konstantin Konrad example Andrea Diaz, Johanna The chapter “Introduction” 0.3 20/06/2017 Draft Ludvigsen, Konstantin was added Konrad, Sebastian Stagl Integration of project 0.4 30/06/2017 Draft Sebastian Stagl partners’ contributions Incorporation of final remarks by project partners 0.5 09/08/2017 Draft Sebastian Stagl after document was sent around for final review 1.0 10/08/2017 Final Sebastian Stagl Final version Consortium No Participant organisation name Short Name Country 1 VDI/VDE Innovation + Technik GmbH VDI/VDE-IT DE 2 Railenium Railenium FR 3 Cranfield University CU UK 4 Maritime University of Szczecin MUS PL 5 Transportøkonomisk Institutt ( TOI) TOI NO 6 Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics ISL DE 7 IK4 Research Alliance IK4 ES 8 Intl. Association of Public Transport Operators UITP BE i Deliverable 2.2: Push and pull factors for industry as derived from comprehensive demand side analysis Table of Contents 1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Project background ...................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Objectives .................................................................................................................... 2 1.3 Focus areas & methodology ........................................................................................ 2 2 Automotive ............................................................................................................................ 5 2.1 Passenger vehicles ...................................................................................................... 5 2.1.1 Social dimensions affecting demand for automotive passenger vehicles ....... 5 2.1.1.1 Executive summary ......................................................................................... 5 2.1.1.2 Description ...................................................................................................... 6 2.1.1.3 Analysis & assessment ................................................................................... 6 2.1.1.4 Conclusions and policy implications .............................................................. 27 2.1.2 Demographic dimensions affecting automotive passenger vehicles ............ 29 2.1.2.1 Executive summary ....................................................................................... 29 2.1.2.2 Description .................................................................................................... 29 2.1.2.3 Analysis & assessment ................................................................................. 29 2.1.2.4 Summary ....................................................................................................... 43 2.1.2.5 Conclusions and policy implications .............................................................. 43 2.1.2.6 Policy implications for the EU ........................................................................ 44 2.1.3 Economic dimensions affecting demand for automotive passenger vehicles45 2.1.3.1 Executive summary ....................................................................................... 45 2.1.3.2 Description .................................................................................................... 46 2.1.3.3 Analysis & assessment ................................................................................. 46 2.1.3.4 Summary ....................................................................................................... 59 2.1.3.5 Conclusion and policy implications ............................................................... 61 2.1.4 Market demand for passenger vehicles in the EU and globally .................... 61 2.1.4.1 EU passenger car demand & market features .............................................. 62 2.1.4.2 Demand for passenger cars in global regions .............................................. 73 2.1.4.3 Summary ..................................................................................................... 100 2.1.4.4 Conclusions and policy implications ............................................................ 102 2.2 Motorcycles .............................................................................................................. 103 2.2.1 Social dimensions affecting demand for motorcycles ................................. 103 2.2.1.1 Executive summary ..................................................................................... 103 2.2.1.2 Description .................................................................................................. 104 2.2.1.3 Analysis & assessment ............................................................................... 104 2.2.2 Demographic dimensions affecting demand for motorcycles ..................... 105 2.2.2.1 Executive summary ..................................................................................... 105 2.2.3 Economic dimensions affecting demand for motorcycles ........................... 105 2.2.3.1 Executive summary ..................................................................................... 105 2.2.3.2 Description .................................................................................................. 106 2.2.3.3 Analysis & assessment ............................................................................... 106 2.3 Trucks....................................................................................................................... 110 2.3.1 Social dimensions affecting demand for trucks ........................................... 111 2.3.1.1 Executive summary ..................................................................................... 111 2.3.1.2 Description .................................................................................................. 111 2.3.1.3 Analysis & assessment ............................................................................... 112 2.3.2 Demographic dimensions affecting demand for trucks ............................... 113 2.3.2.1 Executive summary ..................................................................................... 113 2.3.2.2 Description .................................................................................................. 113 2.3.2.3 Analysis & assessment ............................................................................... 113 2.3.3 Economic dimensions affecting demand for trucks ..................................... 115 ii Deliverable 2.2: Push and pull factors for industry as derived from comprehensive demand side analysis 2.3.3.1 Executive summary ..................................................................................... 115 2.3.3.2 Description .................................................................................................. 115 2.3.3.3 Analysis & assessment ............................................................................... 115 2.3.4 Annex .......................................................................................................... 132 2.4 Buses ....................................................................................................................... 135 2.4.1 Social dimensions affecting demand for buses ........................................... 135 2.4.1.1 Executive summary ..................................................................................... 135 2.4.1.2 Description .................................................................................................. 135 2.4.1.3 Analysis & assessment ............................................................................... 135 2.4.2 Demographic dimensions affecting demand for buses ............................... 136 2.4.2.1 Executive summary ..................................................................................... 136 2.4.2.2 Description .................................................................................................. 136 2.4.2.3 Analysis & assessment ............................................................................... 137 2.4.3 Economic dimensions affecting demand for trucks ..................................... 138 2.4.3.1 Executive summary ..................................................................................... 138 2.4.3.2 Description .................................................................................................. 138 2.4.3.3 Analysis & assessment ............................................................................... 139 2.4.4 Annex .......................................................................................................... 144 2.5 References ............................................................................................................... 146 3 Aeronautics ......................................................................................................................