Deliverable D5.1-3: BQE’s sensitivity to global/climate change in European rivers Collaborative Project (large-scale integrating project) Grant Agreement 226273 Theme 6: Environment (including Climate Change) Duration: March 1st, 2009 – February 29th, 2012 Deliverable D5.1-3: BQEs sensitivity to global/climate change in European rivers: implications for reference conditions and pressure-impact-recovery chains Lead contractor: Irstea/Cemagref Contributors: Maxime Logez, Jérôme Belliard, Andreas Melcher, Helga Kremser, Florian Pletterbauer, Stefan Schmutz, Guillaume Gorges, Olivier Delaigue, Didier Pont Due date of deliverable: Month 31 Actual submission date: Month 33 Project co-funded by the European Commission within the Seventh Framework Programme (2007- 2013) Dissemination Level PU Public X PP Restricted to other programme participants (including the Commission Services) RE Restricted to a group specified by the consortium (including the Commission Services) CO Confidential, only for members of the consortium (including the Commission Services) Page 1/183 Deliverable D5.1-3: BQE’s sensitivity to global/climate change in European rivers Content Non-technical summary ............................................................................................................. 5 Summary .................................................................................................................................... 6 Large scale approach: Modelling ecological niche of fish species at the European scale: species-based vs. functional traits. ............................................................................................. 8 Material and methods........................................................................................................... 11 Species niche.................................................................................................................... 11 Functional traits................................................................................................................ 15 Metric expected values..................................................................................................... 17 Results .................................................................................................................................. 17 Environmental conditions ................................................................................................ 17 Species niche.................................................................................................................... 17 Uncertainty....................................................................................................................... 24 Niche vs. Functional traits................................................................................................ 25 Discussion ............................................................................................................................ 30 Species niche.................................................................................................................... 30 Uncertainty....................................................................................................................... 32 Metric expected values: niche vs. trait models ................................................................ 33 Large scale approach: Potential effect of global warming on reference conditions and pressure–impact relationships: the case of fish biological quality elements including uncertainty analysis.................................................................................................................. 37 Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 37 Material and methods........................................................................................................... 39 Site selection .................................................................................................................... 39 Climatic data .................................................................................................................... 40 Climate change impact..................................................................................................... 41 Uncertainty....................................................................................................................... 42 Results .................................................................................................................................. 43 Climatic conditions .......................................................................................................... 43 Species distribution projections ....................................................................................... 44 Climate change vs. human pressures................................................................................ 61 Page 2/183 Deliverable D5.1-3: BQE’s sensitivity to global/climate change in European rivers Drift of reference conditions ............................................................................................ 64 Uncertainty....................................................................................................................... 71 Discussion ............................................................................................................................ 73 Species distribution .......................................................................................................... 73 Climate change vs. human pressures................................................................................ 75 Drift of reference conditions ............................................................................................ 77 Uncertainty....................................................................................................................... 78 Effects of climate change on fish assemblages in terms of lakes and their outlets in Alpine areas.......................................................................................................................................... 81 Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 81 Case study: Traun River and Traun Lake............................................................................. 83 Conclusion............................................................................................................................ 85 Fish assemblages of the Seine River basin: effects of climate change and reduction of human pressures................................................................................................................................... 87 Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 87 Characteristics of the Seine River basin............................................................................... 87 Natural conditions ............................................................................................................ 87 Human pressures .............................................................................................................. 89 Fish fauna ......................................................................................................................... 91 Potential species distribution and climate change................................................................ 92 Species distribution and human pressures at the Seine basin scale.......................................... 98 Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 98 Material and methods........................................................................................................... 98 Fish data ........................................................................................................................... 98 Environmental data set and GIS....................................................................................... 99 Species models ............................................................................................................... 101 Results ................................................................................................................................ 102 Species models ............................................................................................................... 102 Spatial extrapolations ..................................................................................................... 106 Tests of restoration scenarios ......................................................................................... 108 Main conclusions................................................................................................................ 112 Page 3/183 Deliverable D5.1-3: BQE’s sensitivity to global/climate change in European rivers Species niche and functional traits......................................................................................... 115 Diverse responses to environmental gradients................................................................... 115 Uncertainty around environment–occurrence relationships............................................... 115 Species niche-based and trait-based metrics are very similar ...........................................