Universidad del Azuay Department of Legal Sciences School of International Studies THE NEW COLD WAR? CASES: SYRIA AND UKRAINE (2012 -2016) Graduation thesis prior to obtaining a Bilingual Bachelor in International Studies minor in Foreign Trade Authors: María Gabriela Carrión Cisneros María Belén Guerrero Pesántez Director: Lcdo. Matías Zibell García Cuenca-Ecuador 2017 INDEX OF CONTENT INDEX OF CONTENT ............................................................................................. ii ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................ v INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................... 1 CHAPTER 1: THE COLD WAR ............................................................................. 3 1.1 Background ....................................................................................................... 3 1.2 Development of the Cold War ......................................................................... 6 1.2.1 “Good intentions”: the Marshall Plan and the Molotov Plan ............... 7 1.2.2 Interventionism: Germany, Korea, Vietnam and Afghanistan ............. 9 1.2.2.1 Germany ............................................................................................ 10 1.2.2.2 Korea .................................................................................................. 13 1.2.2.3 Vietnam .............................................................................................. 15 1.2.2.4 Afghanistan ........................................................................................ 18 1.2.3 A bipolar world: NATO, the Warsaw Pact, the enemies and allies .... 20 1.2.4 The arms race ........................................................................................... 23 1.2.4.1 Missile Crisis ...................................................................................... 24 1.2.4.2 The Salt Agreements (Strategic Arms Limitation Talks) ................ 25 1.2.5 The leaders of the Cold War: From Truman and Stalin to Reagan and Gorbachev.......................................................................................................... 26 1.3 The end of the age ........................................................................................... 30 CHAPTER 2: FROM THE OLD TO THE “NEW COLD WAR” ..................... 33 2.1 A new world order .......................................................................................... 33 2.2 From the USSR to Russia: the newborn democracy ................................... 35 2.2.1 “Putinism” ................................................................................................ 38 2.3 The world order or disorder? ........................................................................ 42 2.3.1 US foreign policy after 9/11..................................................................... 44 2.3.2 The invasion of Afghanistan ................................................................... 45 2.3.3 The invasion of Iraq ................................................................................. 46 2.4 Barack Obama: towards a new foreign policy ............................................ 47 2.5 The Arab Spring ............................................................................................. 49 2.6 The “New Cold War” ..................................................................................... 51 2.7 The Libyan precedent .................................................................................... 55 CHAPTER 3: THE SYRIAN CONFLICT IN THE “NEW COLD WAR” ....... 59 3.1 Factors of the Syrian conflict ........................................................................ 60 ii 3.1.1 Internal factors ......................................................................................... 60 3.1.1.1 Historical factors ............................................................................... 60 3.1.1.2 Political factors .................................................................................. 62 3.1.1.3 Ethnic and religious factors ............................................................. 63 3.1.1.4 Socioeconomic factors ....................................................................... 65 3.1.2 External factors ........................................................................................ 66 3.1.2.1 The geopolitical value of Syria and the interests of the powers .... 66 3.2 The internal conflict in Syria (2011) ............................................................. 69 3.3 The Syrian conflict in the “New Cold War” ................................................ 73 3.3.1 The contradictions between Washington and Moscow: Bashar al Assad in power .................................................................................................. 73 3.3.2 The White House and Kremlin allies ..................................................... 74 3.3.3 Diplomatic Crisis...................................................................................... 79 3.3.3.1 Clashes at the UN .............................................................................. 79 3.3.3.2 Failed joint actions ............................................................................ 80 3.3.3.3 The White House and the Kremlin facing the liberation of Aleppo ......................................................................................................................... 81 3.3.4 Economic and political crisis .................................................................. 83 3.3.4.1 Sanctions ............................................................................................ 83 3.3.4.2 The fading of old commitments ....................................................... 83 3.3.5 Military Crisis .......................................................................................... 84 3.3.5.1 The debate over the use of chemical weapons ................................ 84 3.3.5.2 Insurgent groups: the alibi for interventionism by Russia and the United States .................................................................................................. 87 3.3.5.2.1 Al Nusra, the Homs Massacre and the vision of Putin and Obama ........................................................................................................ 87 3.3.5.2.2 The Islamic State: A common enemy that generates individual reactions ..................................................................................................... 88 CHAPTER 4: THE UKRAINIAN CONFLICT IN THE “NEW COLD WAR” 91 4.1 Factors of the Ukrainian conflict .................................................................. 92 4.1.1 Internal factors ......................................................................................... 92 4.1.1.1 Political factors .................................................................................. 92 4.1.1.2 Historical-cultural factors ................................................................ 94 4.1.1.3 Economic factors ............................................................................... 95 4.1.2 External factors ........................................................................................ 97 4.1.2.1 The geopolitical value of Ukraine and the interests of the powers 97 iii 4.2 New conflict or old unresolved issue? ......................................................... 100 4.2.1 The Orange Revolution ......................................................................... 101 4.2.2 Geopolitics after the Orange Revolution ............................................. 103 4.3 Ukraine’s internal conflict (2013) ............................................................... 105 4.4 The Ukrainian conflict in the “New Cold War” ........................................ 109 4.4.1 Political and economic crisis ................................................................. 110 4.4.1.1 The gas war ...................................................................................... 113 4.4.1.2 Sanctions .......................................................................................... 114 4.4.2 Obama and Putin on Crimea’s situation ............................................. 115 4.4.3 Military crisis ......................................................................................... 117 4.4.3.1 NATO and the United States vs. Russia ........................................ 119 4.4.4 Diplomatic crisis ..................................................................................... 120 CONCLUSIONS .................................................................................................... 123 BIBLIOGRAPHY .................................................................................................. 127 APPENDIXES ........................................................................................................ 158 iv ABSTRACT This graduation research addresses a study of the current relations between Russia and the United States in order to analyze the existence of what could be a New Cold War. For this, the participation of these powers in the respective conflicts of Syria and Ukraine has been examined, using a timeline from 2012 to 2016. The analysis starts from a narrative of the historical rivalry between Washington and Moscow, which has reached levels of tension like in the Cold War, due to the appearance in the international scene