Voiceof ThirdAsia Edition September 2017 Our Voice of Asia series brings to life the challenges and opportunities facing the region today and tomorrow. Voice of Asia is the result of significant collaboration across the Deloitte Asia Pacific and Global Network. COVER IMAGE BY: JASON SOLO CONTENTS Demographics fuelling Asia’s | 2 shifting balance of power Ageing Tigers, hidden dragons | 7 Asia’s growth on the cusp of change, | 21 driven by demographics Demographics under the spotlight, | 31 by country 1 Voice of Asia Demographics fuelling Asia’s shifting balance of power Demography—the fundamental driver of all economies—is shifting the balance of power in Asia. India’s young economy is on the rise, Japan’s big budget deficits are being worsened by ageing, and both China and Australia are getting older at a speed that will re-fashion their business landscape. Two centuries ago Napoléon Bonaparte noted, “China is a sleeping giant . when she wakes, she will move the world.” He was right. But now two other sleeping giants are stirring. 2 Edition 3, September 2017 Ageing Tigers, hidden dragons how businesses on the right side of those changes India is the first awakening giant. Its rise as an can maximise the potential benefits. Our analysis economic superpower is about to be felt in earnest. shows that even for those nations on the wrong side Our first article in this issue—Ageing Tigers, hidden of demographics, ageing will produce some very large dragons—shows that India will account for more winners at the industry level. than half of the increase in Asia’s workforce in the coming decade. That last point isn’t well understood. Ageing may be a challenge to some economies, but it will also present The consequences for businesses are vast: An Indian some incredible business opportunities within those summer is coming, and it will last half a century. And same nations. Ageing populations will generate a while India’s rise might have the largest impact on “growth cluster” of vibrant businesses at the heart the world, it isn’t the only economy set to surge, with of the collision of megatrends such as rising life Indonesia and the Philippines on track to enjoy similar expectancies, increasing relative health care costs, trends. Both of these nations have a relatively young and tightening public sector health budgets. population, mainly because they still have birth rates in excess of the global average. This makes demographics The scale is simply staggering, and so are the associated a tailwind rather than a headwind for their growth business opportunities. across at least the next 20 years. Our analysis shows that those in Asia aged over 65 will It’s time to wake up and see the opportunities be the largest and fastest growing market in the world; The second awakening giant is the accelerating pace of they are set to grow in number from 365 million in retirements across much of Asia. Hong Kong is set to be 2017 to more than 520 million in 2027. hit harder than anywhere else in Asia as its workforce ages fast, but the likes of China, Vietnam, and Australia There are already more over-65s in Asia than there are will all see their economies witness slower growth due people in the United States. The number of over-65s in to their ageing population—with Thailand and New Asia will exceed one billion just after the middle of this Zealand not far behind. century. In fact, by 2042—in just a quarter of a century— there will be more over-65s in Asia than the populations The world is beginning to wake up to the emerging of the Eurozone and North America combined. challenge of ageing markets. Yet in many cases businesses simplistically assume that the glory days of Yes, you read that right: More people aged over market growth have passed. It may well be challenging, 65 in Asia than the total combined populations of but that demographic destination isn’t absolute. Indeed, North America and the Eurozone, and in just 25 years it isn’t entirely new. Japan, which led Asia’s first wave of from now. demographically powered economic growth, is already grappling with a rapidly ageing population. This will provide a target-rich environment of business opportunities, and these opportunities will The second article in this edition—Asia’s growth on be concentrated in nations at the forefront of ageing the cusp of change, driven by demographics—asks in Asia. 3 Voice of Asia Country insights illuminated So what can countries do right now When it comes to demographics, it’s also important to get ahead of this? to take a closer country-specific look to uncover shared It isn’t clear whether Asia will rise to these trends and collective insights across the Asia-Pacific challenges as fast or as fully as it might. landscape. For Asia’s ageing Tigers, their growth now lies on In article three of this edition—Demographics in the the wrong side of demographic destiny, and will now spotlight, by country—we asked our national experts rest on other growth drivers, including productivity- to look into three key questions to bring their own enhancing reforms, an openness to migrants, and a voice to the topic of demographics. The questions drive towards greater participation among women. focus on opportunities for industries, the effect on disenfranchised communities and the role of digital Unlocking people power among female workers: technology in driving changes across the workforce. No matter which side of this decade’s demographic divide a nation stands on, it can boost its markets In turn, that connects this edition of Voice of Asia best if it can make the most of its potential people (which concentrates on people power) with the last power. That’s true, for example, of Japan, Malaysia, edition, which focused on digital developments and India, where participation rates of women in across Asia Pacific. While the last edition assessed the workforce are less than those of men. the effectiveness of workers, this one concentrates on worker numbers. Welcoming migrants: It makes sense for nations most at risk of a demographic-driven growth slowdown This edition of Voice of Asia also highlights just how to be among those most open to immigration. Yet, much of an issue the ageing of the global population is 2017 is a year in which opposition to immigration is for this region. By 2027, Asia is likely to see 160 million garnering votes all over the globe. Migration can help people added to the ranks of its over-65s. Yet that same ward off ageing at the national level, but the critical figure for the Eurozone and North America combined issue is whether policy—and property prices—will is expected to be “just” 33 million extra. allow this immigration to happen on a sufficient scale. That’s not, by the way, to underplay the effect of To be clear, bigger isn’t better. But accepting young, ageing in the Western world, but to put it in context— high-skilled migrants has the potential to boost all Asia is enormous, and it is set to age faster than the three of the building blocks of economic potential at the West, which means the business opportunities and same time: population, participation and productivity. policy challenges of ageing now loom largest in Asia. So a key test of Asia’s political systems looms: Those nations that are able to politically sustain solid levels of net immigration, especially of higher skilled workers, will grow faster than those that can’t achieve that— and the same will be true of nations that welcome women workers as much as they welcome men. 4 Edition 3, September 2017 Ageing may be a challenge to some economies, but it will also present some incredible business opportunities within those same nations. What can businesses do right now to embrace It has long been established that older customers spend the coming demographic opportunities? differently than younger ones, on everything from Risk and return usually move in opposite directions— recreation to health care. This says that some of the the better the returns on offer, the greater the risks. best bets businesses can now make involve embracing the customer trends Asia’s sleeping demographic giants But demographics is a different story. In a world of will send their way, repositioning their business models uncertainty, the most reliable forecasts of the future to take advantage of the “growth clusters” emerging are those focused on how many people there will be across a range of sectors. in different parts of the globe. 5 Voice of Asia 6 Edition 3, September 2017 Ageing Tigers, hidden dragons Asia as we know it will rapidly change shape over the coming decade, with demographics set to drive huge changes in growth momentum in our region. Asia’s third wave of growth is set to begin, stirring hidden dragons, while ageing Tigers must face the challenges and opportunities of an older population. The first wave of growth in Asia saw Japan’s relative “people power” peak in the 1990s, while China’s people power sprinted for four decades and generated a second great wave of growth in Asia, before peaking at the start of the current decade. That second wave rewired the world economy more significantly than any other event since the industrial revolution. Now the third great wave of Asia’s growth is beginning, one that will cement us as the centre of the world’s economy and its growth. Figure 1.1 shows the rise and fall of the working age population (those aged 15-64) as a share of the total population of Asia’s three biggest economies.1 This simple ratio of workers (productive potential) to total population (demand) is marvellously predictive.