CADU CHILAL-O AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT UNIT CADU EVALUATION STUDIES CROP SAMPLING I97I PLANNING & EVALUATION SECTION ASELLA t JULY 1972 CADU PUBLICATION NO, 77 % Table of contents Pa,p?e Introduction ]_ Purpose of the study ]_ Statistical design of the study 2 The field work of the study ^ The result of the study 4 Appendix ]_0 - 12 List 'of Tables Table 1 Sample sizes obtained 4 Table 2 Yield per hectare of wheat 5 Table 3 Yield per hectare of barley 7 Table 4 Yield per hectare of flax 7 Table 5 Comparisons of yields 1968, 1969# 1970 and 1971 8 Table 6 Yield with model farmers and other farmers respectively 9 Introduction The present crop sampling s t u d y is the sixth conducted in Chilalo Awraja. The crop sampling studies have been extended and grown in pace with the expansion of C:\DU. The statistical design has been developed continuously and randomised sampling was introduced in 1968. Elaborated variance analysis was undertaken in the 1570 crop sampling study. The cost for the crop sampling studies has accelerated from year to year and has been realized to take a disproportionate share of the resources of the Planning & Evaluation oection, The present study has therefore in view of experience gained got a somewhat modified design. The sampling procedure is not longer strictly randomized but connected with the model farmer system which has got a better and better coverage of Chilalo and presently is well built up in the project area. The field work has partly been transferred to the Extension & Training Department to ensure a better co-ordination of sampling activities and better in­ formation about areas concerned and harvest-times. The design employed has been discussed in CADU publica­ tion H o . 6 4 . It is believed that the present design will more than compensate a certain loss in statistical validity by increased reliability and lower costs. The purpose of the study The purpose of the crop sampling is to give a statisti­ cally unbiased estimate of the yield of some major crops - 2 - in the Project area. The study is concentrated on model farmers and farmers in the immediate neighbourhood of the model farmers Since there are no model farmers in remote areas, few model farmers are tenants and model farmers usually are a bit more progressive than ordinary farmers, the model farmers are not fully representative for the whole farming population. However, the model farmers have been elected in areas were there are concentrations of farmers and thus con­ centration of farming* There does not seem to be much difference in yields between landowners and tenants or between model farmers and other farmers when same varie­ ties and r tes of fertilization are compared. The sampling of one ordinary farmer from the same gasha as the model farmer will show if there is any difference in the yields between model farmers and ordinary farmers. The crops sampled for the study are all varities of wheat with and without fertiliser, all varities of barley with and without fertilizer, all varities of flax with and without fertilizer. The improved varities of wheat are Laketch, Kentana Front ana, Yaktana, 3uprir:o, Romany, Kenya, and Salemayo; of barley, Atlas 57 and Unitan; of flax Dakota. 3. Statistical design of the study The sample size has been discussed in detail in the 1970 report. The design of the present study in much influenced by the increased knowledge of variance within different strata from this study. All model farmers have been included in the study. One other farmer from the same gasha as the mod&l farmer has been sampled. - 3 - On the farms one field has been sampled from all fields with the same variety, fertilized and not fertilized, of wheat b a r l e y and flax. i-rom each field three plots have been sampled and put in one bag. "TCach plot has comprised 2m ^ The number of model farmers by the time of this study was 210 and a total of 42 0 farmers were included in the study which covered the development districts Asella, Bekoji and Ivoffale comprising the following extension areas . D .D .Asella D.D. Tieko 2 i D.D. Koffele Sire Sagure A s a s s a H uru.ta.. Dighellu Ligaba Ti j o Koffale T^thaya Gol ja Kore Gond e Egu Shire Asella 3outh Lol e Degaga •Ysella North Kersa Lemu Iunessa Beko j i Meraro All extension areas except Sir e and Shire, which so far have very few model farmers, have been included in the st udy. The statistical design is not further elaborated on in this study. Some varianc e analyses have been included in the pres entation of results. 4. The field work of the study The field work of the study was conducted from mid October 1971 to mid January 1972. It started in the Ethaya area and was finalized in the Kersa-Meraro area. The .Extension agents were responsible for the field work and entitled to ej'.nloy one assistant each L ! "* 0 to*help in the sampling# Three staff members of the Planning & Evaluation Section supervised the work, gave instructions, distributed materials and collected the samp les. The staff had, during the peak season three four-wheel drive vehicles at their disposal. The costs for the study are: Transport 18,000 kms. & 0.30 5400 Field workers 2000 Three ? & E employees in the field for three months: 3 x 3 x 250 2250 One P & S employee at the office for one month: 1 x 1 x 250 250 Ov er-time 500 Mat erials 800 Sum 1 1 c 2 00 To this sum should be added costs for services from the Experimentation Department and for one ex­ patriate working for one month. The result of the study Table 1 «. Sample cizes obtained N o . o f E x t e n s i o n . C -1 U 1 "! 1 T ' o d e l L o c a l I m p r o v e d L o c a l I m p r o v e d A r e a Flax Sum P a r s e r s ' / h e a t ^ h e a t B a r l e y ‘ B a r l e y L i g a b a 5 3 1 2 9 24 H u r u t a _ 15 11 4 6 1 9 76 E t h a y a 1 3 1 41 1 7 4 63 G o n d e 1 5 3 4 7 2 0 73 K , A s e 1 1 a 15 1 4 4 6 1 6 ' 1 3 80 S . A s e l l a 1 6 5 5 9 2 9 1 1 1 04 S a g u r e 1 0 3 2 3 2 2 5 1 1 64 D i g h e l u 1 2 2 1 6 1 3 1 4 . 4 49 T i j o 2 9 2 0 2 9 1 5 57 G o l j a 6 1 0 1 5 1 0 35 E g u 1 0 4 1 3 1 8 11 6 52 L o l e 1 2 4 3 3 1 9 8 1 0 74 S e r s a 1 0 5 1 1 2 0 7 43 O L e m u 1 0 c . 2 8 31 4 2 67 : i u n e s s a 1 1 9 1 2 2 3 1 4 49 K o r e —— 5 8 8 B o k o j i 12 5 1 3 3 0 2 13 63 T H e r a r o 5 7 8 7 4 29 A s a s s a 6 1 3 8 1 2 r\ I C o f f a l e 4 - 4 O 15 D e g a g a 6 _____ _ 1 2 _____7 __ 8 27 2 1 0 9 9 9 5 6 3 6 5 6 5 79 1064 1 - 5 - The total number of accepted samples obtained is IO64 (3192 plots). The rate of fertilization has increased rapidly and it has turned out to be very difficult to find fields of improved wheat varieties not fertilized^ only 28 samples out of 456 this year. Instead the number of fields of local wheat fertilized as compared to local wheat not fertilized are increasingly freQuent in the sample. The result of the present crop sampling, is accounted for in detail in appendix 1* The analysis in this chapter is based, on this appendix* which has been included mainly to facilitate the analysis in 'Coming- crop-sampling studies. The low number of samples in some extension areas and the very uneven distribution of samples in combination with large difference in yields between areas make comparis .ons between extension areas extremely unsafe. There must be at least 7 observations in each group for any comparison to be meaningful. The yields are shown below for &roups of extension areas known to have fairly eQual conditions for cultivation. The variance does not vary very much within these areas. An accepted error margin of 10$ will generally reQuire about 25 observations. At 7 observations the error margin is about 20/6. Table 2 Yield per hectare of wheat Gol ja Asassa Quintals Lole Kofele per Ligaba Gonde Sagure Egu n; Lemu Kore ** -rT hectare Huruta F,Asella Dighellu’Karsa Bekoji Degaga Etaya S.