Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Minnesota: 1970-2006 Peter Ciborowski Anne Claflin June 2009 Minnesota Pollution Control Agency 520 Lafayette Road North Saint Paul, MN 55155-4194 http://www.pca.state.mn.us 651-296-6300 or 800-657-3864 toll free TTY 651-282-5332 or 800-657-3864 toll free Available in alternative formats Technical Support Document to Progress in Addressing Climate Change: Biennial Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Report and Annual GHG Legislative Proposal Report, (January 2009), To support compliance with statutory requirements (Minn. Stat. 216H.07, subd. 3 and 4.) The MPCA is reducing printing and mailing costs by using the Internet to distribute reports and information to wider audience. For additional information, see the Web site http://www.pca.state.mn.us/climatechange/index.html This report was printed on recycled paper manufactured without the use of elemental chlorine. 2 Table of Contents Executive Summary ___________________________________________________________ 5 Section 1: Introduction ________________________________________________________ 8 Section 2: Sources and Sinks of Greenhouse Gases ________________________________ 12 Carbon dioxide __________________________________________________________________ 13 Methane________________________________________________________________________ 14 Nitrous oxide ____________________________________________________________________ 14 Sulfur hexafluoride, HFCs, and PFCs _______________________________________________ 15 Section 3: Inventory Boundaries and Organization ________________________________ 17 Section 4: Methods and Data Sources ___________________________________________ 25 Energy Use and Finished Fossil Fuel Production ______________________________________ 25 Transportation Energy Use________________________________________________________________29 Electricity Imports_______________________________________________________________________34 Biomass Combustion and Nonfuel Uses ______________________________________________________34 Nitrous Oxide and Methane from Energy Use _________________________________________________35 Sulfur Hexafluoride, HFCs and PFCs _______________________________________________________36 Agriculture _____________________________________________________________________ 37 Waste __________________________________________________________________________ 41 Industrial Process and Other_______________________________________________________ 43 Forestry ________________________________________________________________________ 45 Section 5: Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Minnesota: 1970-2006 _____________________ 46 Section 6: Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Economic Sector: 1970-2006 ________________ 52 Agriculture _____________________________________________________________________ 52 Commercial Sector _______________________________________________________________ 54 Electric Generation_______________________________________________________________ 56 Industrial Sector _________________________________________________________________ 58 Residential Sector ________________________________________________________________ 59 Transportation __________________________________________________________________ 61 Waste Management ______________________________________________________________ 64 Section 7: Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Activity: 1970-2006________________________ 67 Energy Use and Fuel Production____________________________________________________ 67 Agriculture Processes _____________________________________________________________ 73 Industrial Processes ______________________________________________________________ 77 Waste Management ______________________________________________________________ 79 Section 8: Forestry __________________________________________________________ 85 3 Section 9: Biogenic CO2 ______________________________________________________ 88 Section 10: Indicators of Trends _______________________________________________ 90 Electric Power Sector Indicators____________________________________________________ 92 Residential Sector Indicators_______________________________________________________ 95 Commercial Sector and Industrial Sector Indicators ___________________________________ 98 Agricultural Indicators __________________________________________________________ 100 Transportation Indicators ________________________________________________________ 101 Section 11: Explaining the Trends_____________________________________________ 105 Section 12: Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Minnesota: 2006 ________________________ 108 Section 13: Progress Toward GHG Reduction Goals ______________________________ 111 Section 14: Omitted Sources__________________________________________________ 113 Section 15: Next Steps_______________________________________________________ 114 Section 16: Conclusion ______________________________________________________ 115 Section 17: References ______________________________________________________ 116 General Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventory Methods, Protocols, Guidelines, Emission Factors, and Calculation Tools____________________________________________________________ 116 Principal Data Sources___________________________________________________________ 118 Agricultural Sector _____________________________________________________________________118 Commercial Sector _____________________________________________________________________120 Electric Power Sector ___________________________________________________________________120 Industrial Sector _______________________________________________________________________121 Residential Sector ______________________________________________________________________123 Transportation Sector ___________________________________________________________________124 Waste Sector __________________________________________________________________________127 Forestry ______________________________________________________________________________128 Other Published Emission Estimates for Minnesota___________________________________ 129 Appendix A: Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Minnesota: 2005 _______________________ 130 Appendix B: Extended Data Tables ____________________________________________ 131 Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Minnesota____________________________________________ 131 Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector_______________________________________________ 132 Biogenic Greenhouse Gases _______________________________________________________ 136 Appendix C: Extended Data Tables (Metric Tons) ________________________________ 137 Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Minnesota____________________________________________ 137 Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Economic Sector ______________________________________ 138 Biogenic Greenhouse Gases _______________________________________________________ 142 Appendix D: Global Warming Potentials _______________________________________ 143 4 Executive Summary Under Minnesota statute (Minn. Stat. § 216H.07, subd. 3), the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency (MPCA) is obligated to report on statewide progress toward the greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction goals enumerated in the Next Generation Energy Act (Minn. Stat. § 216H.02). Green- house gases are gases that, upon emission to the atmosphere, warm the atmosphere and surface of the planet, and alter the climate. The Next Generation Energy Act established the following GHG reduction goals: 15 percent reduction from 2005 levels by 2015; 30 percent reduction by 2025; and 80 percent reduction by 2050. To comply with this requirement, the MPCA estimated the emission of GHGs statewide for Minnesota for 2005, the baseline year designated by the Legislature, and 2006, the most recent year for which data are available to support an estimate. To facilitate the work of the Legislature, the MPCA also assembled a record of statewide GHGs going back to 1970. This inventory system has been in development for a number of years. In compiling these estimates, the MPCA drew upon its GHG Emission Inventory, which tracks GHG emissions by gas, economic sector and emission source type. Emissions are grouped in the agricultural, commercial, electric generation, industrial, residential, transportation, and waste sectors, and into major activity groups by energy use and fuel production, agricultural process, industrial process, and waste management emissions. We report only emissions of those GHGs named in the Next Generation Energy Act: carbon di- oxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), methane (CH4), sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), and two classes of compounds known collectively as hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and perfluorocarbons (PFCs). We report emissions of all GHGs in both nominal and CO2-equivalent tons. A CO2-equivalent ton is a standardized and useful metric to compare and summarize emissions of different greenhouse gases. A CO2-equivalent ton is the equivalent emission of any GHG that results in a 100-year integrated effect on the climate equal to the emission of one ton of CO2 from fossil fuel combus- tion. This measure is calculated by multiplying the nominal tons of greenhouse gases by their global warming potential. Only emissions that occur within the geographical borders of the state are estimated, with two exceptions – net imports of electricity into the state and emissions from the combustion of avia- tion fuel purchased in Minnesota, but not necessarily combusted within Minnesota air space. The Next Generation Energy Act requires that evaluation of state-level GHG emissions take into