TENNESSEE RETAIL ACADEMY PARTNERS 10% of overall Retail Sales are conducted Online US Census Bureau Q4 2018 retail is not dying it’s changing The high level of confidence reflects a sturdy economic Consumer Confidence expansion in the U.S. that’s about to turn nine years old. Job openings are at a record high and unemployment is at a record low.” 18 Year High The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® The Real Story Retail Decline Plans for 2018 Retail Stores Decline Rite Aid Stripes C-Stores Toys R Us Mattress Firm Best Buy Radio Shack The Bon Ton Sears/Kmart Signet Jewelers Ascena Retail Charming Charlie Gymboree Payless Shoesource The Children’s Place Orchard Supply Perfumania Source: IHL Group, CompanyReports • Many of these Retailers Have been Shrinking for a Decade • Outdated Business Models or Market Issues? Source: Lee Holman & Greg Buzek, IHL Group, Beyond the “Retail Apocalypse” to a bright Future, August 2018 Retail Growth Plans for 2018 Retail Store Count Growth Walgreens 7-Eleven Dollar General Couche-Tard Dollar Tree O’ Reilly Great Clips Autozone Fantastic Sam’s Five Below Ulta Beauty Sherwin Williams MINISO Marathon Oil Harbor Freight Tractor Supply Source: IHL Group, CompanyReports • Fastest Growing Retailers: Dollar, C-Stores, Beauty, and Specialty Hardgoods • What’s Growing Mirrors the Incomes of Consumers: • More Discounters • Less Mid-Range Luxury Source: Lee Holman & Greg Buzek, IHL Group, Beyond the “Retail Apocalypse” to a bright Future, August 2018 Every 5 Hours in America a New Dollar Store Opens Twitter: @BeasleyLacy [email protected] Retail is Growing % Net Opening Stores vs Net Closing Superstores/WH Clubs 17% 83 Bar / Restaurants 21% 68% % Convenience Stores 3% 85% For each company Specialty Softgoods 36% 40% closing stores Specialty Hardgoods 23% 49% 2.7 Fast Food 16% 54% are opening stores Mass Merchandisers 24% 44% Drug Stores 30% 34% Source: IHL Group, Company Reports Department Stores 36% 26% Food / Grocery 14% 34% % Banners Closing Stores % Banners Gaining Stores Source: Lee Holman & Greg Buzek, IHL Group, Beyond the “Retail Apocalypse” to a bright Future, August 2018 $$$ Grocery or Restaurant $$$$ RESTAURANT 3.2% Average Systemwide Sales Growth of Top 200 Chains Source: Nations Restaurant News Source: Nations Restaurant News Restaurants Source: Nations Restaurant News Fast Casual Growing Brands Quick Service Restaurants QSR [Quick Service Brands] Growing Expanding Restaurant Brands in TENNESSEE Twitter: @BeasleyLacy [email protected] 22 19 BRANDS OF FOCUS OPENED IN 41% OF RA COMMUNITIES Why should a community invest in retail? Goals Challenges We surround your community with the resources and actions needed to create the desired results. Within the Retail Academy participant communities, the June 2017 – June 2018 economic impact has created 576 new jobs $1.7M local tax revenue $4.5M state tax revenue 889,319 Jobs Supported by Retail 78,608 Retail Establishments $51.5 Billion in Total GDP Impact Retail is 15% of National GDP Source: National Retail Federation National Overview of Restaurant Trends QUIZ LARGEST RESTAURANT CHAIN BY SYSTEMWIDE SALES? Systemwide Sales Rank Chain (Millions) 1 McDonald's $ 37,639 2 Starbucks Coffee $ 18,995 3 Subway $ 10,800 4 Taco Bell $ 9,790 5 Burger King $ 9,624 6 Wendy's $ 9,342 7 Chick-fil-A $ 8,965 8 Dunkin' Donuts $ 8,459 9 Domino's $ 5,925 10 Panera Bread $ 5,538 11 Pizza Hut $ 5,511 12 KFC $ 4,417 13 Sonic Drive-In $ 4,408 14 Chipotle Mexican Grill $ 4,397 15 Applebee's Neighborhood Grill & Bar $ 4,117 16 Olive Garden $ 4,044 17 Buffalo Wild Wings $ 3,751 18 Little Caesars Pizza $ 3,672 19 Arby's $ 3,634 20 Dairy Queen $ 3,628 21 Jack in the Box $ 3,468 22 Chili's Grill & Bar $ 3,416 23 IHOP $ 3,148 TOP 25 BY TOP SYSTEMWIDE SALES SALES SYSTEMWIDE 24 Panda Express $ 3,115 25 Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen $ 3,036 QUIZ LARGEST RESTAURANT CHAIN BY NUMBER OF LOCATIONS? Rank Chain Number of Units 1 Subway 25,908 2 McDonald's 14,036 3 Starbucks Coffee 13,932 4 Dunkin' Donuts 9,141 5 7-Eleven 7,963 6 Pizza Hut 7,522 7 Burger King 7,226 8 Taco Bell 6,446 9 Wendy's 5,769 10 Domino's 5,587 11 Circle K 4,463 12 Dairy Queen 4,413 13 Little Caesars Pizza 4,301 14 KFC 4,109 15 Sonic Drive-In 3,593 16 Papa John's Pizza 3,314 17 Arby's 3,283 18 Jimmy John's Gourmet Sandwiches 2,755 19 Baskin-Robbins 2,538 20 Chipotle Mexican Grill 2,363 21 Jack in the Box 2,250 22 Chick-fil-A 2,234 23 Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen 2,201 TOP 25 BY TOP NUMBER OF UNITS 24 Casey's General Store 2,041 25 Panda Express 2,011 QUIZ LARGEST RESTAURANT CHAIN BY AVERAGE SALES PER UNIT? Average Annual Chain Sales Per Unit (000) Del Frisco’s Double Eagle Steak House $ 14,136 Mastro's Steakhouse/Ocean Club $ 13,871 Dave & Buster's $ 11,599 The Cheesecake Factory $ 10,496 Rainforest Cafe $ 9,454 Cooper's Hawk Winery & Restaurant $ 8,793 Portillo's $ 8,763 Yard House $ 8,232 Maggiano's Little Italy $ 7,977 Bubba Gump Shrimp Co. $ 7,807 The Capital Grille $ 7,793 Fogo de Chão $ 7,655 Legal Sea Foods $ 6,926 Bahama Breeze $ 6,224 Seasons 52 $ 6,015 BJ’s Restaurant & Brewhouse $ 5,374 Ruth's Chris Steak House $ 5,264 Miller's Ale House $ 4,986 Texas Roadhouse $ 4,972 Saltgrass Steak House $ 4,876 Olive Garden $ 4,789 Hard Rock Cafe $ 4,578 Cracker Barrel Old Country Store $ 4,555 ANNUAL SALES PER UNIT PER SALES ANNUAL Cheddar's Scratch Kitchen $ 4,407 TOP 25 BY TOP Fleming's Prime Steakhouse & Wine Bar $ 4,380 Rank Chain # Units % Increase 1 MOD Pizza 92 59% 2 Shake Shack 49 41% 3 Blaze Fast-Fire'd Pizza 105 37% 4 Fuzzy’s Taco Shop 86 25% 5 Black Bear Diner 74 23% 6 Pret a Manger 65 22% 7 First Watch 140 21% 8 The Habit Burger Grill 142 21% 9 Cooper's Hawk Winery & Restaurant 20 20% 10 Zoës Kitchen 166 19% 11 Freddy's Frozen Custard & Steakburgers 177 19% 12 Raising Cane’s Chicken Fingers 250 17% 13 Cafe Rio Mexican Grill 87 16% 14 Tropical Smoothie Cafe 465 16% TOP 15 BY TOP % OF UNIT GROWTH 15 Fogo de Chão 29 16% Growth Leaders 37 Growth Leaders 38 2,879 new units Rank Chain # New Units 15 brands 1 Starbucks Coffee 760 2 Dunkin' Donuts 313 3 Domino's 216 4 Circle K 192 5 Taco Bell 168 6 Chipotle Mexican Grill 165 7 Jersey Mike's Subs 156 8 Chick-fil-A 149 9 Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen 134 10 Panda Express 118 11 MOD Pizza 110 12 Jimmy John's Gourmet Sandwiches 108 13 Wingstop 105 14 Marco's Pizza 97 TOP 15 BY TOP # OF UNIT GROWTH 15 Tropical Smoothie Cafe 88 826 new units Rank Chain # New Units 15 brands 16 Firehouse Subs 77 17 Smoothie King 72 18 Burger King 70 19 Blaze Fast-Fire'd Pizza 64 20 Casey's General Store 63 21 Zaxby's 61 22 7-Eleven 59 23 Raising Cane’s Chicken Fingers 50 24 Bojangles' Famous Chicken 'n Biscuits 48 25 Arby's 46 26 Cinnabon 46 27 Freddy's Frozen Custard & Steakburgers 45 30 BY 30 28 Panera Bread 42 - 29 First Watch 42 15 # OF UNIT GROWTH 30 Wawa 41 Net Loss = Rank Chain Net Loss -1,893 for 1 Subway -836 20 brands 2 Pizza Hut -167 New Units = 3 McDonald's -119 + 3,225 for 4 Applebee's Neighborhood Grill & Bar -76 20 Brands 5 Church's Chicken -61 Previously Shown Brands 6 Joe's Crab Shack -60 7 Sam's Cafe (Walmart stores) -59 8 KFC -58 9 Papa Murphy's Take 'N' Bake Pizza -54 10 Dairy Queen -52 11 Noodles & Company -52 12 Tim Hortons -50 13 Bruegger's Bagels -41 14 Romano's Macaroni Grill -37 15 Long John Silver's -33 16 TGI Fridays -31 17 Pollo Tropical -31 18 Bob Evans Restaurants -28 19 Famous Dave's -27 TOP 15 BY TOP # OF CLOSING 20 Ruby Tuesday -21 Site Selection Criteria Homerun Real Estate Convenience High visibility / Strong signage High Traffic counts Excellent Access Ample Parking 43 7 FRANCHISE QSRs EXPANDING IN TN ASK FOR PRESENTATION FROM RURAL DEVELOPMENT CONFERENCE "Lacy and her team at Retail Strategies has become a constant resource for our development team. Currently, we leverage their insights and relationships along with their tech savvy approach and local market knowledge. This give us the advantage we need across a number of difficult markets.“ -Brian L. Peterson, Director of Real Estate & Development, FOURTEEN FOODS, Diary Queen Franchisee with 200+ units Retail in Athens, TN Community Input & Survey Get to Know Your Community: A local survey using social media to target what you wish to know. • Report was conducted March 2019 • This report will contains 1,948 responses. • 5 Questions asked to residents of McMinn County TN via Facebook • A prize was sent to a randomly selected local voter (beats headphones) Used by some of the biggest names in real estate. Discover State of Tennessee Population 6.65 Million Athens, TN Population 14,173 Prepared for Athens_TN by Retail Strategies 47 Discover: Drive Time & Radius 3-Mile 5-Mile 10-Mile 5-Minute Drive 10-Minute 15-Minute Drive Radius Radius Radius Time Drive Time Time Current Year Estimated 15,208 22,660 43,439 8,804 19,593 28,753 Population Number of Households 6,341 9,202 17,402 3,650 8,074 11,628 Projected Annual Growth (5 YR) 4.76% 4.51% 3.78% 3.06% 4.64% 4.25% Median Income $32,207 $37,823 $39,498 $22,940 $36,537 $39,579 Average Age 40.1 40.6 41.3 40.2 40.4 40.9 Average Home Value $157,779 $167,398 $170,797 $118,155 $166,854 $168,838 % Bachelor's Degree 20% 19% 15% 9% 21% 18% Daytime Population 24,448 28,883 44,536 12,638 28,325 33,809 Labor Force 6,570 10,111 19,192 2,004 8,629 12,943 Prepared for Athens_TN by Retail Strategies * Demographics pulled from city center as identified by internal GIS 48 Discover Prepared for Athens_TN by Retail Strategies 49 Current Retail Overview Prepared for Athens_TN by Retail Strategies 50 People Drive to Athens from a Larger Region to Shop Mobile Data Collection This mobile tracking service uses data collected from cell phone users who enable location services.