Union College Union | Digital Works Honors Theses Student Work 6-2019 Representational Style and Congressional Elections: New York's 19th District in the 115th Congress Margaret McCormick Union College - Schenectady, NY Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalworks.union.edu/theses Part of the Political Science Commons, and the Public Affairs, Public Policy and Public Administration Commons Recommended Citation McCormick, Margaret, "Representational Style and Congressional Elections: New York's 19th District in the 115th Congress" (2019). Honors Theses. 2325. https://digitalworks.union.edu/theses/2325 This Open Access is brought to you for free and open access by the Student Work at Union | Digital Works. It has been accepted for inclusion in Honors Theses by an authorized administrator of Union | Digital Works. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Representational Style and Congressional Elections: New York’s 19th District in the 115th Congress By Margaret McCormick * * * * * * * * * Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for Honors in the Department of Political Science UNION COLLEGE June, 2019 ABSTRACT MCCORMICK, MARGARET Representational Style and Congressional Elections: New York’s 19th District in the 115th Congress ADVISOR: Bradley Hays The disconnect between members of Congress and the American public is no secret. Of the three branches of government, the legislative branch is intended to be the most representative of the people. However, it consistently faces the lowest approval ratings among the American public. Although the public largely disapproves of Congress as a legislative body, most Americans support their own representative.1 This phenomenon is reflected in high reelection rates for congressional incumbents. My thesis examines the relationship between congressional representation and elections through an evaluation of the representational style of Congressman John Faso. Faso, who represented New York’s 19th District in the 115th Congress, lost reelection after a single term. I assess the role of political communication in representational style through a qualitative interpretation of Faso’s press releases. I utilize press releases as a method for understanding representational style because Faso used this tool to explain positions and votes. Through an analysis of two politically-polarizing case studies, healthcare and tax reform, I determine that Congressman Faso lacked a cohesive representational style during the 115th Congress. Additionally, I conclude that Congressman Faso’s inconsistent representational style had electoral implications in a toss-up district. 1 Elizabeth Mendes, “Americans Down on Congress, OK With Own Representative,” Gallup, May 9, 2013. i Acknowledgments This thesis would not have been possible without my experiences as a part of Team Faso during the 115th Congress. Thank you to Congressman John Faso and his staff in Washington, D.C. for the opportunity to serve as a congressional intern in Spring 2017. There are thousands of inspiring, hardworking individuals working on Capitol Hill, and Congressman Faso and his staff were no exception. My experience as an intern with his office was instrumental in shaping my interests and this thesis. Additionally, working on Congressman Faso’s campaign in Fall 2018 was significant in the development of this thesis, as well as in contributing to my personal growth. I am grateful for his talented campaign team, who taught me the value of canvassing and grassroots politics. There is no question that these experiences will be some of my fondest memories from my time at Union College. ii Table of Contents Chapter One: Congressional Representation and Midterm Elections .................................... 1 What Affects Representation? ................................................................................................................... 4 The Two Congresses ............................................................................................................................. 4 Institutional Changes ............................................................................................................................ 7 Political Parties .................................................................................................................................. 12 Colleagues ........................................................................................................................................... 13 The Executive Branch ......................................................................................................................... 15 Interest Groups ................................................................................................................................... 15 The Constituency ................................................................................................................................. 16 What Affects Midterm Election Outcomes? ........................................................................................... 23 Incumbency Advantage ....................................................................................................................... 24 National Climate ................................................................................................................................. 26 Presidential Alignment ........................................................................................................................ 26 Media .................................................................................................................................................. 27 Campaign Finance .............................................................................................................................. 29 Voter Turnout ...................................................................................................................................... 30 Data and Analysis .................................................................................................................................... 30 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................... 33 Chapter Two: Political Communication as a Tool for Understanding Representation ....... 35 Background on New York’s 19th Congressional District ........................................................................ 35 Grimmer’s Approach ............................................................................................................................... 42 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................... 50 Chapter Three: The Politics of Healthcare: A Case Study ..................................................... 51 Faso’s Messaging during the 2016 Election Cycle ................................................................................. 52 The Beginning of the 115th Congress ...................................................................................................... 55 Protests Surrounding Healthcare ............................................................................................................. 56 The Politics of Health Care and the Affordable Care Act: Republican Opposition................................ 58 The American Health Care Act ............................................................................................................... 65 Amendments to the American Health Care Act and Backlash from New York State ............................ 67 Shift to Bipartisanship ............................................................................................................................. 73 Faso’s Messaging during the 2018 Election Cycle ................................................................................. 77 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................... 79 Chapter Four: Tax Reform in the 115th Congress: A Case Study ........................................ 81 Faso’s Messaging During the 2016 Campaign........................................................................................ 82 The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in the 115th Congress ................................................................................... 84 Faso’s Messaging on Tax Reform in 2018 .............................................................................................. 95 Faso’s Messaging During the 2018 Campaign........................................................................................ 98 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................. 101 Chapter Five: The Electoral Impacts of Congressional Representation ............................. 102 The Electoral Impact of Faso’s Representational Style ........................................................................ 104 The Trump Factor and Other National Trends ...................................................................................... 108 The Gibson Factor ................................................................................................................................. 115 The Future of Moderate Republicans in New York’s 19th District ......................................................