Central London Infrastructure Study Final Report Prepared for: Westminster City Council and Central London Forward Prepared by: URS Corporation Limited July 2009 44935320 Central London Infrastructure Study July 2009 Final Report Issue No 4 44935320 Central London Infrastructure Study Final Report Project Title: Central London Infrastructure Study Report Title: Central London Infrastructure Study Project No: 44935320 Report Ref: Status: Final Report Client Contact Name: Eric Sorensen Client Company Name: Westminster City Council and Central London Forward Issued By: Esther Howe Document Production / Approval Record Issue No: Name Signature Date Position 1 Anthony Batten 24/07/09 Project Managers Esther Howe Prepared by Elena Di Biase Research 24/07/09 Consultants Natalie Thomas Checked and Project Director Rory Brooke 24/07/09 approved by Document Revision Record Issue No Date Details of Revisions 1 09/01/09 Draft Report 2 06/03/09 Draft Report 3 15/06/09 Final Draft Report 4 24/07/09 Final Report July 2009 Central London Infrastructure Study Final Report LIMITATION URS Corporation Limited (URS) has prepared this Report for the sole use of Westminster City Council and Central London Forward in accordance with the Agreement under which our services were performed. No other warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to the professional advice included in this Report or any other services provided by us. This Report may not be relied upon by any other party without the prior and express written agreement of URS. Unless otherwise stated in this Report, the assessments made assume that the sites and facilities will continue to be used for their current purpose without significant change. The conclusions and recommendations contained in this Report are based upon information provided by others and upon the assumption that all relevant information has been provided by those parties from whom it has been requested. Information obtained from third parties has not been independently verified by URS, unless otherwise stated in the Report. COPYRIGHT © This Report is the copyright of URS Corporation Limited. Any unauthorised reproduction or usage by any person other than the addressee is strictly prohibited. July 2009 Central London Infrastructure Study Final Report July 2009 Central London Infrastructure Study Final Report CONTENTS Section Page No ABBREVIATIONS.......................................................................................................................... I REPORT SUMMARY ..................................................................................................................... I 1. INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................ 25 1.1. Introduction..................................................................................................................... 25 1.2. Objectives....................................................................................................................... 26 1.3. Central London Forward Projections.............................................................................. 28 1.4. Report Structure............................................................................................................. 35 2. INFRASTRUCTURE STUDY SCOPE AND APPROACH............................................. 37 3. HARD INFRASTRUCTURE ASSESSMENT................................................................. 42 3.1. Electricity ........................................................................................................................ 42 3.2. Gas................................................................................................................................. 51 3.3. Sustainable Energy: Heating, Cooling and Power......................................................... 57 3.4. Telecommunications ...................................................................................................... 80 3.5. Water.............................................................................................................................. 82 3.6. Sewers and Sewerage Infrastructure............................................................................. 85 3.7. Flood Risk ......................................................................................................................93 3.8. Waste Management ....................................................................................................... 98 4. TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE ASSESSMENT................................................... 106 4.1. Baseline........................................................................................................................ 106 4.2. Forecast ....................................................................................................................... 111 4.3. Forecast Costs and Planned Investment ..................................................................... 116 4.4. Assessment of Existing Growth Strategies .................................................................. 122 4.5. Conclusions.................................................................................................................. 128 5. SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE ASSESSMENT ........................................................... 131 5.1. Adult Learning and Further Education ......................................................................... 131 5.2. Higher Education.......................................................................................................... 144 5.3. Primary Healthcare....................................................................................................... 153 5.4. Secondary Healthcare.................................................................................................. 166 5.5. Police............................................................................................................................ 171 5.6. Fire ............................................................................................................................... 176 5.7. Ambulance ................................................................................................................... 179 6. INFRASTRUCTURE PRIORITIES............................................................................... 182 6.1. Infrastructure Assessment Summary Matrices ............................................................ 182 6.2. Summary of URS Model of Infrastructure Quantum and Costs................................... 183 July 2009 Central London Infrastructure Study Final Report CONTENTS Section Page No 6.3. Geographic Distribution of Growth............................................................................... 187 6.4. Infrastructure Priorities ................................................................................................. 187 6.5. Risks to Delivery........................................................................................................... 189 6.6. Conclusions.................................................................................................................. 189 6.7. Recommendations for Further Work............................................................................ 190 APPENDIX 1 - TECHNICAL INPUT APPENDIX 2 - APPROACH AND PARAMETERS APPENDIX 3 - URS CENTRAL LONDON INFRASTRUCTURE MODEL APPENDIX 4 - HUDU MODEL APPROACH July 2009 Central London Infrastructure Study Final Report LIST OF TABLES Table Page No Table 3-1: URS Assessment of Additional Demand for Electricity from New Development, kvA, 2006-2026 .................................................................................................... 48 Table 3-2: Annual Energy Consumption Projected Demand for Electricity from New Development, MWh, 2006 - 2026................................................................................................ 49 Table 3-3: URS Assessment of Additional Demand for Gas from New Development, m3/hour, 2006-2026 - Scenario 1................................................................................................ 53 Table 3-4: URS Assessment of Additional Demand for Gas from New Development, m3/hour, 2006-2026 - Scenario 2................................................................................................ 54 Table 3-5: Projected Annual Energy Consumption for Gas from New Development MWh, 2006 - 2026 ....................................................................................................................... 55 Table 3-6: Summary of the CHP Capacity and Possible CO2 Emissions Savings for the Four Schemes Identified.............................................................................................................. 68 Table 3-7: Summary of the CHP Capacity and Possible CO2 Emissions Savings for the Four Schemes Identified.............................................................................................................. 72 Table 3-8: URS Assessment of Additional Demand for Water from New Development, L/day, 2006 - 2026....................................................................................................................... 84 Table 3-9: URS Assessment of Sewer Flow Rates Compared to Thames Water Data, L/day, 2006.................................................................................................................................. 86 Table 3-10: URS Assessment of Additional Sewer Flow Rates from New