ELECTRICAL POWER VISION 2040 FOR EUROPE A DOCUMENT FROM THE EUREL TASK FORCE ELECTRICAL POWER VISION 2040 Authors of the document EUREL Task Force Electrical Power Vision 2040 Günther Brauner, TU Wien Wiliam D’Haeseleer, KU Leuven Willy Gehrer, EUREL, Past President Wolfgang Glaunsinger, VDE | ETG Thilo Krause, ETH Zürich Henning Kaul, former Member of Bavarian Parliament Martin Kleimaier, VDE | ETG W.L.Kling, TU Eindhoven Horst Michael Prasser, ETH Zürich Ireneus Pyc, Siemens Wolfgang Schröppel, EUREL Waldemar Skomudek, Opele Brussels, December 2012 Title: Nasa Imprint EUREL General Secretariat Rue d‘Arlon 25 1050 Brussels BELGIUM Tel.: +32 2 234 6125 [email protected] Electrical Power Vision 2040 for Europe Study by EUREL Full version 3 © EUREL 2012 Electrical Power Vision 2040 for Europe Table of contents Table of contents...................................................................................................... 5 List of figures............................................................................................................ 9 List of tables ........................................................................................................... 12 1. Introduction and motivation ........................................................................... 13 2. European power generation in the past ........................................................ 17 2.1 Development of power generation in the last two decades in EU27+ ........ 17 2.2 The role of the renewables in Europe today............................................... 20 2.3 Characteristics in some particular countries............................................... 20 3. Changing role of electric power..................................................................... 25 3.1 State of the final energy and final electricity consumption.......................... 25 3.2 Driving factors for switching from fossil to electric power ........................... 26 3.3 Influence of renewable energy ................................................................... 27 3.4 Changing role of electricity in the transport sector...................................... 27 3.5 Changing role of electricity in the residential sector ................................... 30 3.6 Future role of security of supply ................................................................. 32 4. Environmental, economic and political requirements on the supply security of electrical power............................................................................................. 35 4.1 Green-house gas (GHG) reduction goals................................................... 35 4.2 Implication of Liberalization ........................................................................ 36 4.3 Electricity price policy and price control...................................................... 36 4.4 Dependency reduction from suppliers of primary energy from outside the EU 27 ............................................................................................................... 37 4.5 Efficiency improvement to reduce costs and to protect resources ............. 38 5. European electrical power demand in the next decades ............................. 41 5.1 Development of power demand from 1990 to 2008.................................... 41 5.2 Estimation of the power demand until 2050 ............................................... 43 5.2.1 Method of estimation........................................................................... 43 5.2.2 Estimation in the various application areas ......................................... 45 6. Options for future bulk power transport and supply security of power ..... 51 6.1 Introduction ................................................................................................ 51 6.2 The Transmission Grid in Europe – Current Situation and Challenges ...... 51 6.2.1 Historic Evolution of the UCTE / ENTSO-E Grid ................................. 51 6.2.2 Transmission Challenges Driven by Electricity Trade ......................... 52 6.2.3 Transmission Challenges Driven by the Production Side.................... 52 6.2.4 Transmission Challenges Driven by Demand Side and Developments in the Distribution Grid ............................................................................ 53 5 © EUREL 2012 Electrical Power Vision 2040 for Europe 6.2.5 Conclusion .......................................................................................... 54 6.3 Market Options for the Facilitation of Future Bulk Power Transport ........... 54 6.3.1 Cross-border Trading and Market Coupling ........................................ 54 6.3.2 Cross-border balancing....................................................................... 54 6.4 Technological Options for the Facilitation of Future Bulk Power Transport 55 6.5 Case Study................................................................................................. 57 7. Options for future power production............................................................. 61 7.1 Fossil with CCS including combined cycle plants....................................... 61 7.1.1 Introduction ......................................................................................... 61 7.1.2 CO2 capture ........................................................................................ 62 7.1.2.1 Post-Combustion ............................................................................. 62 7.1.2.2 Pre-Combustion............................................................................... 63 7.1.2.3 Oxyfuel ............................................................................................ 63 7.1.2.4 Post-Combustion in CCGTs ............................................................ 64 7.1.2.5 Flexibility of plants with CO2 capture ............................................... 64 7.1.3 CO2 transport ...................................................................................... 65 7.1.4 CO2 storage & disposal....................................................................... 65 7.1.5 Status and expectations of CCS ......................................................... 66 7.2 Nuclear....................................................................................................... 67 7.2.1 Generations of Nuclear Power Plants ................................................. 67 7.2.2 Safety.................................................................................................. 69 7.2.2.1 Radioactive inventory ...................................................................... 69 7.2.2.2 Safety barriers ................................................................................. 70 7.2.3 Safety of currently operated plants...................................................... 70 7.2.3.1 Generation II as initially designed.................................................... 70 7.2.3.2 Generation II today .......................................................................... 71 7.2.3.3 Generation III................................................................................... 72 7.2.3.4 Generation IV .................................................................................. 75 7.2.4 Fuel sustainability................................................................................ 76 7.2.4.1 Generation of new fissile material.................................................... 76 7.2.4.2 Transmutation.................................................................................. 78 7.2.4.3 Reprocessing as a complement to generation IV ............................ 78 7.2.4.3.1 Hydro-metallurgical processes.................................................. 78 7.2.4.3.2 Pyro-metallurgical processes .................................................... 79 7.2.4.4 Safety .............................................................................................. 79 7.2.5 Other concepts outside generation IV ................................................. 80 7.2.5.1 Travelling wave reactor (TWR)........................................................ 80 7.2.5.2 Accelerator Driven Systems (ADS).................................................. 81 7.2.6 Summary............................................................................................. 82 7.3 Wind ........................................................................................................... 83 7.3.1 Wind energy development and outlook in the European Union .......... 83 7.3.1.1 Regions with poor wind conditions, repowering............................... 84 6 © EUREL 2012 Electrical Power Vision 2040 for Europe 7.3.1.2 Offshore wind .................................................................................. 84 7.3.2 Grid- Integration of offshore wind plants ............................................. 86 7.3.3 Innovations and trends........................................................................ 87 7.4 Geothermal ................................................................................................ 89 7.4.1 Introduction ......................................................................................... 89 7.4.2 Energy potential .................................................................................. 90 7.4.3 Geothermal energy use....................................................................... 90 7.4.4 Geothermal energy systems ............................................................... 91 7.4.4.1 Surface