REPORT ON ISRAELI SETTLEMENT IN THE OCCUPIED TERRITORIES A Bimonthly Publication of the Foundation for Middle East Peace Volume 16 Number 3 May-June 2006 OLMERT’S “CONVERGENCE” PLAN OFF TO A SLOW START The election campaign waged by prehensive) disengagement from the his political opponents alike are united Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert was Gaza Strip in September 2005. Yet in opposition to Israel’s latest effort to billed as a referendum on his idea for Olmert will be unable to proceed with- impose a territorial solution. settling the continuing conflict between out Hamas’ continuation of the “calm” “In Gaza they evacuated the settle- Israel and the Palestinians over control that facilitated the Gaza withdrawal. ments and left Gaza,” the president of lands under Israeli occupation. In its Olmert and the Kadima Party he noted in an April 8, 2006, interview in most expansive version Olmert pro- leads won the elections, but without a the Guardian. But in the West Bank posed that Israel annex approximately parliamentary majority large enough to they will demarcate the borders and say: 10 percent of the West Bank, including be considered a mandate to fully imple- ‘This is your state.’ And they want our settlements and historic areas in East ment his concept. Olmert, unlike state within the wall without negotia- Jerusalem, along a perimeter defined Sharon, need not be in any hurry. The tions....Nobody will accept it. The more or less by the separation barrier new prime minister lacks Sharon’s struggle will continue.” now being constructed in the West stature and the sense of urgency that During Olmert’s May 2006 visit to Bank. Israel would expand settlements enabled the former prime minister, Washington, he was once again remind- west of the barrier and withdraw its set- against the expectations of many, to exe- ed that Washington would not formally tlers from the remaining areas—72 set- cute Israel’s disengagement from the recognize a border created without tlements with a current population of Gaza Strip in September 2005. It is Palestinian agreement. U.S. president close to 60,000 (see listing beginning on unlikely that he will be able to mobilize George W. Bush, however, praised page 3), maintaining exclusive security support in the current Knesset for more Olmert’s “bold ideas . [that] could control over these territories as well as than a token West Bank withdrawal of lead to a two-state solution if a pathway over the border crossing points to less than 15 small settlements. Such a to progress on the road map is not open Jordan. Palestinians in general, and the modest redeployment would not create a in the period ahead.” This remark Palestinian Authority (PA) in particular, territorial opportunity for the exercise of represents a marked improvement on are excluded from this process, inspired Palestinian sovereignty and normal life, the initial, more skeptical reaction from as it is by former prime minister Ariel nor would it provide significant security Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, Sharon’s unilateral (and far more com- benefits for Israel. who noted on March 30, 2006, “I The planning necessary to turn wouldn’t on the face of it just say abso- Olmert’s idea for an Israeli redeploy- lutely we don’t think there’s any value in Please visit our website to see its ment in the West Bank, no matter how what the Israelis are talking about.” new look and improved navigation. circumscribed, into a plan, has yet to Until the Israeli plan includes a Sign up to receive the Report by begin. Chief of Staff Lieutenant definite territorial dimension, U.S. e-mail, to be notified of events in General Dan Halutz, noted in a May 5 views will be of little import. Olmert, in Washington, D.C., and more. Visit interview that “There is no convergence his first Washington visit as prime us at www.fmep.org. program. There certainly has been no minister, was not in any position to ask order to the army to prepare a concrete the president to endorse a plan that has Also in this issue: and specific plan. We heard like the rest yet to take shape and which is nlikely to Settlement Population 3 of the Israeli people the declaration of be of a scale that warrants a policy Settlement Time Line 4–5 the prime minister and when a plan is endorsement from Washington of the ◆ Price of Apartments 7 received we’ll prepare for it.” kind Olmert originally intended. PA president Mahmoud Abbas and TO OUR READERS FOUNDATION FOR MIDDLE EAST PEACE The Bush administration is avoiding all meantime, the boycott of all contacts with contacts with the new, democratically elect- Hamas encourages Israeli unilateralism, like Merle Thorpe, Jr. ed Hamas led government, and has sus- Olmert’s grandiose “convergence” plan, Founder pended aid to the Palestinian Authority, which is a formula for continued conflict, (1917–1994) hoping that this will persuade Hamas to and the comparable illusion, among Hamas recognize Israel, forswear violence, and hard liners, that resistance, not negotia- Philip C. Wilcox, Jr. accept all past agreements. Some U.S. offi- tions, serves Palestinian interests. President cials may even hope that these sanctions Traditionally, parties in conflict have Geoffrey Aronson will turn the Palestinian public against talked to their enemies, usually without Director, Research and Hamas in favor of a revived Fatah or other conditions, to determine if there is—or is Publications, Editor, Report on more moderate Palestinian leadership. not—common ground that might be Israeli Settlement in the Occupied Territories There is little reason to believe these enlarged. Such contacts with Hamas are policies will succeed. The Palestinian public needed to bring greater realism to their Nitzan Goldberger already blames the U.S., not Hamas, for the thinking, to understand better their views, Editorial Assistant cut off of aid, and hopes for early emer- and to discover whether differences might gence of a strong alternative leadership are be bridged. The U.S. has engaged diplo- TRUSTEES unrealistic. The boycott of Hamas has matically with other hostile entities and Lucius D. Battle deepened skepticism about the new U.S. regimes in the past. For example, dialogue Landrum R. Bolling commitment to democracy in the region. with Libya led to its removal from the U.S. Calvin H. Cobb, Jr. And Hamas, viewing the wreckage of the terrorist list and restoration of diplomatic James J. Cromwell Oslo peace process under Arafat, will likely relations. Why not engage with Hamas? seek a more substantial quid pro quo than There is nothing to lose, and perhaps, Peter Gubser the former Palestinian leader did before much to gain. Stephen Hartwell meeting the required conditions. In the Richard S.T. Marsh Richard W. Murphy —————— ◆ —————— Jean C. Newsom Gail Pressberg The Foundation for Middle East Peace is proud to William B. Quandt introduce Searching for Peace in the Middle East,a Nicholas A. Veliotes film by Landrum Bolling. This 30-minute DVD is a compelling portrayal The Foundation, a non- of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict by a veterna edu- profit I.R.C. 501(c)(3) organization, supports peace cator, Middle East expert, and peacemaker. and security for Israelis and Through the voices of Israelis and Palestinians, it Palestinians through mutual reveals their hopes and fears and explores the issues recognition and a negotiated that divide them. It also describes a common yearn- division of historic Pales- tine. It publishes the bi- ing for peace, pointing the way toward a resolution of this tragic conflict that monthly Report on Israeli would meet the deepest needs of both societies. Settlement in the Occupied Territories. “Searching for Peace in the Middle East is a superb presentation of the intricate relations between Israelis and Palestinians, presented dra- Copyright © 2006 matically by people from both sides. Their combined proposals, clearly presented, comprise the only pathway to peace, with justice, in the Holy Land.” Former President Jimmy Carter Order a free copy of Searching for Peace in the Middle East. E-mail [email protected], call (202) 835-3650, or write to us at FMEP, 1761 N Street NW, Washington, DC 20036. Include your name, mailing address, and e-mail address. The DVD includes a study guide. 2 ❖ Report on Israeli Settlement May-June 2006 SETTLEMENT POPULATION EAST OF THE SEPARATION BARRIER Population Growth 1994–2000 1994–2004 2000–2004 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1994 No. % No. % No. % 1 Adora 186 191 205 253 271 184 87 47.28 2 1.09 -85 -31.37 2 Almog 142 141 155 159 167 102 65 63.73 40 39.22 -25 -14.97 3 Argaman 166 169 167 160 164 165 -1 -0.61 1 0.61 2 1.22 4 Asfar 275 232 218 308 361 299 62 20.74 -24 -8.03 -86 -23.82 5 Ateret 350 349 320 307 302 230 72 31.3 120 52.17 48 15.89 6 Avnei Hefez 1,038 964 891 838 785 214 571 266.82 824 385.05 253 32.23 7 Bat Ayin 796 767 685 665 610 319 291 91.22 477 149.53 186 30.49 8 Beqa’ot 152 145 147 153 144 180 -36 -20 -28 -15.56 8 5.56 9 Bet El 4,763 4,627 4,410 4,240 4,120 1,230 2890 234.96 3533 287.24 14 25.45 10 Bet HaArava 69 54 52 59 55 26* 29 111.54 43 165.38 218 28.99 11 Bracha 970 880 817 783 752 319 433 135.74 651 204.08 643 15.61 12 Dolev 963 973 909 907 880 471 409 86.84 492 104.46 83 9.43 13 Eli 2,308 2,058 1,960 1,830 1,900 647 1253 193.66 1661 256.72 408 21.47 14 Elon Moreh 1,152 1,097 1,060 1,030 1,060 1,120 -60 -5.36 32 2.86 92 8.68 15 Enav 468 473 492 498 500 345 155 44.93 123 35.65 -32 -6.4 16 Gilgal 164 162 161 171 180 169 11 6.51 -5 -2.96 -16 -8.89 17 Gittit 161 119 95 102 100 138 -38 -27.54 23 16.67 61 61 18