Transnet SOC Ltd © LTPF 2017 ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIAIONS AfDB African Development Bank AICD Africa Infrastructure Country Diagnostic ARTIN African Regional Transport Infrastructure Network AUC African Union Commission Bbl/d Billion barrels per day (oil) BBR Beitbridge Bulawayo Railways BR Botswana Railways bcm Billion cubic metres per year CCFB Companhia Dos Caminhos De Ferro Da Beira CDN Railway Systems of Northern Mozambique (Corredor de Desenvolvimento do Norte) CEAR Central East African Railways CFB Lobito - Benguela Railways (Caminhos de Ferro de Benguela) CFL Luanda Railways (Caminhos de Ferror de Luanda) CFMa Namibe Railways (Caminhos de Ferror de Namibe) CFM Railways and Ports of Mozambique (Portos e Caminhos de Ferro de Mozambique) CFM-CENTRA L The Beira Railroad CFMK Chemin de Fer Matadi-Kinshasa CFM-NORTH The Nacala Corridor (Also see CDN) CFM-SOUTH The Maputo Railroad CFN Moçãmedes Railways (Caminhos de Ferro Namibe) CPCS CPCS Transcom International Limited CPMZ Companhia Pipeline Moçambique - Zimbabwe DRC Democratic Republic of the Congo GDP Growth Domestic Product LCA Logistics Capacity Assessment mscfd Million standard cubic foot per day (measure of gas flow) mtpa Million ton per annum NOCZIM National Oil Company of Zimbabwe NPCA NEPAD Planning and Coordinating Agency NRZ National Railways of Zimbabwe PAP Planned action plan PIDA Programme for Infrastructure Development in Africa RSZ Railway Systems of Zambia SADC Southern African Development Community scf Standard cubic foot (a measure of quantity of gas) SETRAG Societe d’Exploitation du Transgabonais SNCC Societe Nationale des Chemins de Fer du Congo SR Swaziland Railways TAZAMA Tanzania Zambia Mafuta Pipeline TAZARA Tanzania and Zambia Railway Authority Tcf Trillion cubic feet TMSA Trademark SA UNCTAD United Nations conference on trade and development ZRL Zambian Railways Limited Transnet SOC Ltd © LTPF 2017 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION _____________________________________________________________________ 345 2. OVERVIEW OF DEMAND _______________________________________________________________ 345 2.1 TOTAL FREIGHT SURFACE FLOWS (SADC COUNTRIES) __________________________________________________ 345 2.1.1 SOUTH AFRICA CROSS BORDER TRAFFIC (TRANSNET TRANSPORTATION MODEL) _________________________ 345 2.1.2 SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA TOTAL ROAD AND RAIL FLOWS _______________________________________________ 346 2.1.3 CRUDE OIL PIPELINE FLOWS ____________________________________________________________________ 354 2.2 PORTS (MAJOR AFRICAN PORTS) ____________________________________________________________________ 357 2. OVERVIEW OF CONDITION AND CAPACITY STATUS QUO _____________________________________ 359 2.1 RAIL ___________________________________________________________________________________________ 359 2.2 PORTS __________________________________________________________________________________________ 364 2.3 PIPELINES ______________________________________________________________________________________ 367 3. OVERVIEW OF REGIONAL CORRIDOR DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES ______________________________ 370 3.1 KEY ISSUES AND TRENDS HAMPERING DEVELOPMENT __________________________________________________ 370 3.2 LESSONS LEARNED _______________________________________________________________________________ 371 3.3 OVERVIEW OF SADC CORRIDORS ____________________________________________________________________ 371 3.3.1 SALIENT ISSUES NEGATIVELY IMPACTING ON CORRIDOR OPERATIONS _________________________________ 379 3.4 CORRIDOR DEVELOPMENTS AND PLANS ______________________________________________________________ 380 3.5 FORECASTED REGIONAL DEMAND ___________________________________________________________________ 382 3.6 STRATEGIC RAIL PROJECTS ________________________________________________________________________ 383 3.7 STRATEGIC PORT PROJECTS ________________________________________________________________________ 385 3.8 STRATEGIC PIPELINE PROJECTS_____________________________________________________________________ 386 4. TRANSNET AFRICA STRATEGY __________________________________________________________ 387 Please note this Long-Term Framework Plan is not a business or operational plan, and is unconstrained to capital planning and independent to other more detailed Transnet business and operating division (OD) plans. The LTPF is only a planning tool, to broadly guide Transnet and all external and public stakeholders. Transnet SOC Ltd © LTPF 2017 AFRICA INFRASTRUCTURE PLAN 1. INTRODUCTION One of the overarching objectives for Transnet as contained in the Shareholder compact is to “Integrate South Africa with the region and the rest of the continent”. In addition economic developments in the Southern African region present enormous opportunities for Transnet, as one of the major players in the national freight system, in the medium- to longer-term. The World Bank’s Africa Pulse report of October 2013 reports that economic activity remains strong in much of sub-Saharan Africa, underpinned by robust domestic demand. The economic outlook for the region seems to be very positive by all accounts. More than a decade of growth has helped to lower poverty, but the twin goals of ending extreme poverty and boosting shared prosperity call for a sharp ramping up of effort. The World Bank projects GDP growth in sub-Saharan Africa reflected to be 4, 9 percent in 2013, rising to 5, 3 percent in 2014 and 5,5 percent in 2015. In addition countries in SADC such as Mozambique, Zambia, Angola and Tanzania are amongst the fastest growing in the world even though it is from a low base. Transnet has therefore embarked on a much more focused African strategy. This chapter provides a view on the current infrastructure within the region as well as an overview on freight demand and regional corridor development strategies and plans. Major developments and opportunities concerning rail, port and pipeline infrastructure are highlighted. A very brief view is presented of the Transnet strategies and development plans for Africa. 2. OVERVIEW OF DEMAND The Regional Freight Demand Model (RFDM) 2015 investigates the economies of 17 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. These countries are namely: Angola, Botswana, Burundi, Congo, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Kenya, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Rwanda, South Africa, Swaziland, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe. The objective is to forecast the demand for the aforementioned countries over a 31- year forecast period to support the development of transport infrastructure projects with a good information system. The RFDM methodology can be divided into three components, namely the compilation of a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for each of the countries. Secondly, the calculation of the volumes per commodity for the base year takes place, and thirdly the forecasting thereof. 2.1 TOTAL FREIGHT SURFACE FLOWS (SADC COUNTRIES) 2.1.1 SOUTH AFRICA CROSS BORDER TRAFFIC (TRANSNET TRANSPORTATION MODEL) The TTM (Transnet Transportation Model) is a gravity flow model that produces flows of freight on the rail network, cross-border and through the port system. Inputs to the model are the RFDM (Freight Demand Model) origin- destination pairs, independent views on strategic commodities and network data. The cross border traffic under review here are total surface flows, irrespective of mode, (road, rail, pipelines and air). Only countries which border South Africa are under consideration. Transnet SOC Ltd © LTPF 2017 345 AFRICA INFRASTRUCTURE PLAN 2013 - 2044 SA cross border traffic (mtpa) Country Border Post 2013 EX to 2044 EX to 2013 IM from 2044 IM from Botswana Ramatlhabama 2.61 5.44 0.95 5.55 Lesotho Maseru 3.03 6.82 0.38 0.90 Mozambique Komatipoort 8.63 27.91 0.18 0.73 Namibia Nakop 0.46 0.85 0.46 0.85 Swaziland Mananga 8.44 29.79 8.51 29.84 Zimbabwe Beitbridge 3.25 7.90 2.29 4.53 2013 – 2044 SA cross border traffic (mtpa) 2013 – 2044 SA cross border traffic (mtpa) 2.1.2 SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA TOTAL ROAD AND RAIL FLOWS The demand data reflected here refers to total road, rail and pipeline freight surface flows, and no attempt has been made at this stage to establish what market share could be targeted by rail. The data is categorised into three sectors, agriculture, manufacturing and mining. Transnet SOC Ltd © LTPF 2017 346 AFRICA INFRASTRUCTURE PLAN DOMESTIC FREIGHT TRAFFIC In 2013 the biggest domestic sector traffic was made up by mining at 357mtpa, with most of the volumes emanating from South Africa. This is expected to grow to 1 127mtpa by 2044. Agricultural domestic traffic was at 327mtpa in 2013 and is projected to grow to 1 100mtpa in 2044. The biggest growth prospects are in manufactured goods, forecasted to grow from 284mtpa in 2013 to 1 110mtpa by 2044. Most of the growth in manufactured goods volumes is seen in South Africa, Angola, DRC, Tanzania, Uganda and Mozambique. Agriculture Manufacturing Mining Country 2013 2019 2044 2013 2019 2044 2013 2019 2044 Angola 18 713 276 24 835 964 87 161 273 24 053 687 32 584 586 140 301 524 5 768 111 7 658 607 18 959 538 Botswana 405 391 413 694 1 003 351 6 850 537 7 928 349 18 246 113 9 040 078 9 543 249 28 271 916 Burundi 5 471 270 6 391 000 13 698 039 2 063 999 2 435 678 5 680 745 724 958 814 558 2 332 736 Congo 2 761 734 3 106 446 5 414 262 5 103 367 5 927 462 14 665 868 4 794 012 6 608 048 14 630 860 DRC 28 800 105 44 087 587 143 634 354 13 656 086 22 835 204 112 124 678 4 024 163 5 479 846 31 343 315 Kenya 34 263 426 39 150 089 81 782 057 21 393 295 23 861 766 63 736 112 1 980 513 3 393