Monday, 03 December 2018 Global Economics & Markets Research Email: [email protected] URL: www.uob.com.sg/research Markets Overview HIGHLIGHTS AHEAD On Monday (3 Dec), US attention will be on the Fed speakers and a significant data docket ahead. Fed Vice Chair Clarida The main event over the weekend was the G20 Leaders’ will give an interview on Bloomberg, Fed Governor Quarles summit in Buenos Aires, Argentina (30 Nov – 01 Dec) will speak at Council on Foreign Relations in NYC while and more importantly, the dinner meeting between China NY Fed President John Williams & Fed Governor Lael President Xi and US President Trump (on 1 Dec after the Brainard will speak NY Fed’s Treasury Market conference. conclusion of the G20 Summit). Unlike the acrimonious All are permanent voters in the FOMC. Dallas Fed president end to the recent Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Kaplan (non-voter in 2018 FOMC) will speak at a community (APEC) summit, the G20 summit did conclude with a joint forum at Texas. As for the US data calendar, we have Oct communique where G20 leaders agreed that the global construction spending, Nov ISM manufacturing and the system of rules that has underpinned trade for decades is final print for the Nov Markit manufacturing PMI survey. For flawed and there is room for improvement. More importantly, the rest of the G7, we have the final Nikkei manufacturing the communique omitted for the first time a reference to survey, the Nov Markit manufacturing PMI survey for UK, the risk of protectionism. Both are seen as wins for the US, Eurozone and its constituent economies. especially the Trump administration. The key events to watch this week include: As for the Trump-Xi dinner meeting, it was considered a good outcome as it yielded a temporary truce (although FOMC Chair Powell is originally scheduled to testify there was no joint statement) as both leaders agreed to halt before the Joint Economic Committee on Wed (5 Dec, the imposition of new tariffs for 90 days and intensify their 11.15pm SG time) after the release of his testimony negotiations to reach a lasting agreement. White House transcript (9:15pm SG time). It is now likely to be Press secretary Huckabee Sanders subsequently said delayed but we expect Powell’s testimony to take place in a statement that US will keep the existing 10% tariff on before the FOMC blackout period (which will start on US$200bn of Chinese goods and refrain from increasing the 8 Dec) and he will most likely to be asked to clarify rate to 25% (on 1 Jan 2019) in exchange for immediate start what he means by Fed policy rates “remain just below to negotiations on specific Chinese trade practices including the broad range of estimates of the level that would be intellectual property theft, non-tariff barriers and forced neutral for the economy--that is, neither speeding up technology transfer. If there is no progress on structural nor slowing down growth”. The Fed’s latest Beige book reforms, then US will raise those tariffs to 25% as planned. report release may also be delayed till 6 Dec (7 Dec, She also said that China agreed to boost its purchases of 3am Sg time). agricultural and industrial goods to reduce US’ huge trade deficit with China. This is the kind of outcome that both sides UK Parliament begins week long debate (till 10 Dec) can boast some measure of victory but with no fundamental on the Brexit plan proposed by PM May and endorsed changes implemented. That said, this is still in line with our by EU leaders before UK lawmakers are scheduled to base case of no further tariffs added but the negotiations will vote on the proposal on 11 December. be long drawn, well into 2019 at least. The 175th (Ordinary) OPEC Meeting will take place It will be an exciting week ahead with many events and data at Vienna, Austria on Thu (6 Dec). Russian President to watch from developed economies but it will also be a Vladimir Putin announced after a meeting Sat (1 Dec) short week for US financial markets. Former US president on the sidelines of the Group of 20 with Saudi Arabian George HW Bush, 94, passed away on Fri (30 Nov) and US Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman that Russia President Trump has designated 5 Dec (Wed) as a national and Saudi Arabia agreed to extend into 2019 their day of mourning. US financial markets will be closed that day deal (known as OPEC+) to manage the oil market, while key US data releases may be delayed to the following likely paving the way for a deal to cut production at the day (awaiting confirmation). upcoming OPEC meeting. Markets Overview Monday, 03 December 2018 1 I Page The Reserve Bank of Australia will have its monetary the RBI to raise interest rates. 5 out of 48 analysts polled by policy decision on Tue (4 Dec, 11:30am SG time) while Bloomberg expect a 25 bps rate hike while the rest expect Bank of Canada’s monetary policy decision is on Wed no change in interest rates. (5 Dec, 11pm SG time). Both are expected to keep policy steady at 1.5% and 1.75% respectively. FX It will still be a very substantial US data calendar for the rest of this week after Monday and the key data After a brief decline on the back of a dovish Powell’s speech, include Nov ISM non-manufacturing (5 Dec), Nov ADP the US dollar was broadly stronger against most of the major employment changes (5 Dec), Oct trade data (6 Dec), currencies on Friday (30 Nov) ahead of a heavy weight Oct factory orders (6 Dec), and the most important weekend from G20 summit. The Bloomberg US Dollar index data will be the US Nov Labor Market report on Fri (DXY) was up 0.5% to settle at 97.727 (from previous close (7 Dec) and we again expect 250k NFP (from 250k of 96.778). The euro shaded lower as harmonized CPI in Oct, and Bloomberg consensus forecast is 199k as inflation came in at 2% as expected but core inflation was up of 3 Dec) while unemployment rate is likely to stay at by 1%, slightly below expectations, and the EUR/USD pair 3.7%. Bloomberg consensus expect US wage growth touched a low of 1.1306 before ending the NY session at to pick up to +0.3%m/m, +3.1%y/y (from 0.2% m/m, 1.1317 (from 1.1393). Meanwhile, the UK pound weakened 3.1% y/y in Oct) but an above-3%y/y wage surprise ahead of the UK parliament’s Brexit debate and the GBP/ could again jolt US inflation expectations and Fed rate USD touched a low of 1.2735 before ending at 1.2749 (from hike expectations. Note that the 5 Dec US data may 1.2791). The USD/JPY pair ended the session at 113.57 be delayed till 6 Dec as that day is designated as the (from 113.48). national day of mourning in US. The US-China trade war ceasefire news gave risk trade a Other than Powell, we have other Fed Speakers ahead big bump this morning (3 Dec), as AUD/USD opened with a of FOMC Blackout period (8-20 Dec) including Atlanta gap at 0.7370 (from the NY close of 0.7307) while NZD/USD Fed President Bostic (voter) and NY Fed President opened at 0.6925 (from the NY close of 0.6884). John Williams on 6 Dec, and Fed Governor Brainard on 7 Dec. Asian currencies were mostly firmer against USD last week with gains led by IDR (+1.7%), INR (+1.6%), KRW (+0.9%). The US Government may potentially shutdown after CNH and CNY ended lower by 0.1-0.2% against USD last 7 Dec unless Congress passes remaining 7 spending week. bills or at least passes a short-term funding bill this week. US President trump (speaking to reporters on Following weekend’s truce between U.S. and China on Air Force One before departing Argentina on 1 Dec) tariffs, USD/CNH gapped down to 6.8952 low this morning said that he expects to agree to a two-week extension from 6.9500 close on Fri. The PBoC had set the CNY central of budget funding from 7 Dec deadline because of parity near-flat at 6.9357/USD on Friday morning. President Bush’s funeral. USD/SGD opened at 1.3697 (NY close of 1.3718) and is In Asia this week, the data focus will be on the Nov PMI trading at 1.3695 at the time of writing. The SGD NEER is readings, Nov CPI from Thailand, Indonesia, South Korea, at 1.5% above the midpoint this morning. We expect SGD Philippines and Taiwan and foreign reserves from a number NEER to remain within 1.0% and 2.0% above the midpoint, of countries including China. implying a USD/SGD range of 1.3632-1.3767 based on current FX levels. For today, Nov Nikkei manufacturing PMIs including those for South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia etc will be released at 8.30am. The focal point is China’s Caixin manufacturing EQUITIES PMI for Nov at 9.45am. Singapore’s manufacturing PMI and the electronics sector sub-index from the Singapore Institute Most European key bourses closed weaker while US stock of Purchasing & Materials Management (SIPMM) are markets closed the volatile month of November with strong scheduled in the evening.