BTI 2008 | Jamaica Country Report Status Index 1-10 7.65 # 21 of 125 Democracy 1-10 8.55 # 18 of 125 Market Economy 1-10 6.75 # 37 of 125 Management Index 1-10 5.71 # 42 of 125 scale: 1 (lowest) to 10 (highest) score rank trend This report is part of the Bertelsmann Transformation Index (BTI) 2008. The BTI is a global ranking of transition processes in which the state of democracy and market economic systems as well as the quality of political management in 125 transformation and developing countries are evaluated. The BTI is a joint project of the Bertelsmann Stiftung and the Center for Applied Policy Research (C•A•P) at Munich University. More on the BTI at http://www.bertelsmann-transformation-index.de/ Please cite as follows: Bertelsmann Stiftung, BTI 2008 — Jamaica Country Report. Gütersloh: Bertelsmann Stiftung, 2007. © 2007 Bertelsmann Stiftung, Gütersloh BTI 2008 | Jamaica 2 Key Indicators Population mn. 2.7 HDI 0.72 GDP p.c. $ 3,817 Pop. growth1 % p.a. 0.5 HDI rank of 177 104 Gini Index 45.5 Life expectancy years 71 UN Education Index 0.79 Poverty3 % 14.4 Urban population % 53.1 Gender equality2 - Aid per capita $ 14.7 Sources: UNDP, Human Development Report 2006 | The World Bank, World Development Indicators 2007 | OECD Development Assistance Committee 2006. Footnotes: (1) Average annual growth rate 1990-2005. (2) Gender Empowerment Measure (GEM). (3) Percentage of population living on less than $2 a day. Executive Summary In October 2002, the People’s National Party (PNP), under the leadership of Percival J. Patterson, became the first political party to win four consecutive general elections. Subsequently, a change in leadership of both major political parties, the PNP and the Opposition Jamaica Labour Party (JLP), late in the legislative period precipitated a watershed period in Jamaica’s political development. In 2006, Portia Simpson-Miller was sworn in as the country’s seventh – and first female – prime minister, after a divisive, close internal election campaign for the presidency of the party, which she won over rivals Minister of National Security Peter Phillips, and Minister of Finance and Planning Omar Davies. As the most popular politician in at least ten years, Prime Minister Simpson-Miller enjoyed 78% popular support in national polls taken shortly after her election. This popularity was short-lived however; six weeks after her appointment, the rating dropped by 14%. Her popularity both outside and within her party fell due to the perception of many that she was unable to manage internal differences successfully and lacked the leadership skills and capacity to rally the various internal factions around her vision for the country. Bruce Golding, leader of the Opposition Labour Party, is seen by some as having successfully transformed the Jamaica Labour Party into “a unified political machinery.” He is admired for his ability to grasp difficult concepts and maintain the necessary firm leadership. Reform of the electoral process has resulted in a more transparent system and fewer political abuses. However, violent crime, abuses by security forces, corruption in both public and private sectors, and drug-related criminal networks with global connections are matters for great concern. Jamaica is not undergoing a system transformation from an undemocratic, non-market system to a market-based democracy. Jamaica is a long- standing democracy and has a free market economy. However, Jamaica, like other Latin American countries, had to disengage from an economic sector strongly regulated by the state – a process that is not completed yet in all domains, particularly regarding BTI 2008 | Jamaica 3 the evolution of dynamic competition. Jamaica must strengthen and deepen democratic institutions and practices and shape the evolving market economy, such that the most vulnerable in society do not disproportionately bear the burden of adjustment. During the period under review, Jamaica has continued to struggle with the same problems that were apparent five years ago, but are now subject to an increasingly globalized environment. Although there have been slight improvements in some areas, internal and external factors have also brought about several setbacks, the net result of which has been only a small improvement in economic growth during the evaluation period. Levels of poverty and unemployment remain deplorable. Jamaica faces formidable economic problems, some beyond the scope of its decision-makers. Given that the country maintained the levels of economic prosperity enjoyed in the 1990s, and its social and economic indicators are improving (or at least not drastically worsening), this is a noteworthy management success. Decision-makers are pursuing reform and structural adjustment programs in cooperation with industrialized nations and multilateral financial institutions. History and Characteristics of Transformation In Jamaica’s first Parliament and local bodies for autonomous administration, the majority of the population, who were descendents of slaves from Africa, was not represented. Slavery was abolished in 1838, and labor unions and political parties that initiated the democratic process were formed during the social unrest of the late 1930s. Jamaica held its first general election with universal adult suffrage in 1944, in which the people elected a Parliament with national legislative power, experienced a phase of self-government and went on to achieve full sovereignty in 1962. Jamaica is one of the few developing countries to have achieved independence during that era that has maintained a representative democracy, with 14 government changes achieved through general elections. Social inequality and racism, the legacy of Jamaica’s past as a slavery-based plantation economy, continue to haunt democracy and economic development in Jamaica. Features of the mono-culture plantation economy and institutions, which are generally not responsive to the needs of people living in poverty, also persist. Jamaica’s two leading political parties, the People’s National Party (PNP) and the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP), alternated in having control of the government until the 1990s. The PNP was re-elected for a third term in 1997 and a fourth term in 2002. In the June 2003 elections, the Opposition JLP took control of the local government political machinery, winning eleven out of thirteen parish councils, breaking its losing streak. In 2004, however, demonstrating a partial recovery from the 2003 defeat, the PNP won two important by-elections at the local level, but has postponed the holding of island-wide local government elections, which were due in 2006.Researchers classify Jamaican democracy as a patronage-based democracy. One BTI 2008 | Jamaica 4 fundamental characteristic of this system is that its citizens, especially those in the lower income groups, are integrated into the political system through regular elections and patronage-based dependent relationships with their political parties. Political and criminal violence as well as by extreme polarization, driven by political tribalism between political parties and their constituents, sometimes accompany integration. Political analyst Robert Buddan accurately describes Jamaica’s political system as one that has alternated between high and moderate levels of consensual and tribal politics. Patronage-based democracy results in the breach of customary democratic rules and freedoms by the dominance of one party in some constituencies, particularly in the capital, Kingston. While this does not obstruct the overall political, social and economic development of the country, it severely undermines the orderly socioeconomic development of the affected communities. The Jamaican population, whose alienation from the political system is constantly growing, has been increasingly rejecting patronage-based democracy, and it has become equally difficult for both major parties to gain new supporters (PNP 31%, JLP 30%, no response/neither party 38%, December 2006) other than the “hardcore” party members. The initial immense popularity and immediate decline of the new female prime minister is a case in point. Reforms of the electoral system including the enactment of the Electoral Commission of Jamaica in 2006 and stricter procedures on election day before and during national and local elections, have reduced the influence of electoral fraud and violence significantly. Ideological polarization and confrontation was severe between the two parties in the 1970s. It peaked in 1980, when approximately 800 people died during the elections in that year. Relations between the parties were so strained by 1983 that the opposition PNP boycotted a snap election in protest of the surprise conditions in which the ruling JLP had called a new election. The boycott resulted in a Parliament without an opposition party for an entire election cycle. These polarized political divisions within Jamaica, embodied in the two parties’ ideologies and foreign policies, reflected a wider global conflict. Under the leadership of Michael Manley, the PNP aligned itself with countries of the Non-Aligned Movement and Cuba. The JLP, under the leadership of Edward Seaga, cooperated with the United States. Since the Cold War ended, both parties’ political positions have converged towards the center, which reflects the influence of the dominant trends in the global political economy. Violent crime is still one of the country’s largest problems. The JLP and PNP have pursued different economic development strategies.