What’s on the Street PV and EV News Electric Vehicles © 2009, Itron Inc. Chevy Volt Chevy Volt* 16-kWh, lithium-ion battery. Gas engine works with the electric motors when GM has plans to build** battery is depleted Year 2011 15,000 Year 2012 45,000 Plugs into any standard 120 V household outlet GM is working to expand the production target to 120,000 in 2012** * www.chevrolet.com/volt © 2009, Itron Inc. ** One Million Electric Vehicles By 2015, February 2011 Status Report, Department of Energy Nissan Leaf Nissan Leaf* 24 kWh lithium-ion battery (no gas tank) 120 V portable trickle charging cable 240 V home charging dock Sales Projections** (estimated 7 hours) Year 2011 25,000 optional 50 kW DC fast Year 2012 25,000 charging port Year 2013 25,000 Year 2014 100,000 Year 2015 100,000 * www.nissanusa.com/leaf-electric-car © 2009, Itron Inc. ** One Million Electric Vehicles By 2015, February 2011 Status Report, Department of Energy Other Manufacturers Electric Vehicles are on the horizon. However, the market is closely watching the success of the Nissan Leaf and the Chevy Volt. Available Today Tesla Model S Sedan Fisker Karma Targeted 2012 Ford Focus EV Toyota Prius (Plug-in HEV) Honda Fit EV Mitsubishi I MiEV THINK City © 2009, Itron Inc. Customer Acceptance Issues Range Leaf boasts a 100-mile range Volt and Plug-In HEV have an ICE for extended range. Charge Times** 120 V/ 15 A (1 kW/h) is 4 to 7 hours. 240 V/ 10A (5.7 kW/h) is 0.7 to 1.3 hours Cost* Conventional costs are approximately $20,000 Full Electric with a 100 mile range is an additional $14,000 Only Volt and Leaf are cost competitive with subsidies Consumer Reports National Research Center More than one-quarter (26 percent) of consumers said they are likely to consider a plug-in electric car the next time they are in the market for a new vehicle, and 7 percent said very likely in a random, nationwide telephone survey * MIT Energy Initiative Symposium on the Electrification of the Transportation System, April 8, 2010 © 2009, Itron Inc. ** Plug-In Hybrid Vehicles and the Vermont Grid: A Scoping Analysis, February 15, 2008 Adoption Variables PHEV Adoption from 2010 – 2020 in the San Francisco, Bay Area Household Income Green Party Registration Average Gas Price Driving Patterns > Work in County > Total Travel Time > Traffic Days > Percent workers driving (not public transit or other means) > Average Driving Time > Government Incentive Dummy Dipti Desai, Plug ‐in Hybrid Electric Vehicle Adoption Estimation and System Load Impact in San Francisco County: 2010 ‐2020, © 2009, Itron Inc. Energy and Environmental Economics Inc. Infrastructure Issues The key issue is when the demand will occur Sufficient Generation Structuring of Rates and Charging Rules Low case (5%) is 1.2 million vehicles 120 V/15 A Circuit Scenario 1. Simultaneous 6PM (1300 MW) Scenario 2: Continuous (650 MW) Scenario 3: Normal Dist at 6 PM (1000 MW) © 2009, Itron Inc. Jason Wynne and Dr. Lincoln Pratson, Impact of Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles on California’s Electricity Grid, May 2009 Infrastructure Issues Rate Design. How do you design rates to provide the proper incentives? Distribution Infrastructure What parts of the distribution network need to upgraded? Charging Station Infrastructure How do we build out a network of publically available charging stations? How do you handle multifamily housing? Cost Allocation Who pays for building the infrastructure? © 2009, Itron Inc. MIT Energy Initiative Symposium on the Electrification of the Transportation System, April 8, 2010 Policy Incentives Policy Initiatives Change from Tax Credit to Point of Sale Rebate ($7500) Additional R&D investments in drive trains, batteries, and energy storage technologies Reward communities that develop an EV infrastructure CAFE Standards are increasing © 2009, Itron Inc. * One Million Electric Vehicles By 2015, February 2011 Status Report, Department of Energy GE’s Best Cities 1. Dallas 2. Houston 3. Detroit 4. St. Louis 5. Atlanta 6. Miami 7. Phoenix 8. Tampa 9. Cincinnati 10. Sacramento Based on American Community Survey, a U.S. Census Bureau database Key Factor: Commuting Habits Analysis considered the 25 largest U.S. metro areas for the population within 50 miles of the city center, based on 2009 data. © 2009, Itron Inc. http://www.gereports.com/the-10-best-cities-for-electric-cars/ Ford’s Best City List DEARBORN, Mich., April 13, 2011 Key Factors: • Utility rate structure that encourages "off-peak" or nighttime EV charging to minimize demand on the existing electric grid • Streamlined permitting and inspection process to support customer and commercial EV infrastructure installation • Integrated advisory committees that include participation from electric utilities, vehicle manufacturers and dealers, municipalities, EV customers and local coalitions • Urban planning approach to optimize public/commercial EV charge locations • Infrastructure incentives to offset a portion of customer costs for hardware/installation Atlanta Hartford, Conn Raleigh, N.C Austin, Texas Honolulu Richmond, Va. Baltimore Houston Sacramento, Calif. Boston Indianapolis San Diego Charlotte, N.C. Los Angeles San Francisco Bay Area Chicago New York Seattle Dallas Orlando, Fla. Washington, D.C. Denver Phoenix Detroit Portland, Ore. © 2009, Itron Inc. http://media.ford.com/article_display.cfm?article_id=34429 One Million By 2015 2011 State of the Union address President Obama called for putting one million electric vehicles on the road by 2015. Vehicle Sales Per year 2005-2008 : 15-16 million 2009: 10 million 2010: 12 million Conventional Electric Hybrids 1.6 million units over the past 6 years Electric Vehicle Goal 1.7% of sales through 2015 (assuming 12 million units/year) © 2009, Itron Inc. *One Million Electric Vehicles By 2015, February 2011 Status Report, Department of Energy EV Sales Forecast Estimated EV Sales Per Year 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Total Volt Leaf © 2009, Itron Inc. One Million Electric Vehicles By 2015, February 2011 Status Report, Department of Energy Alternative Perspectives Bloomberg New Energy Finance, a research and analysis firm in London forecasts plug in electric car sales will grow from next to nothing to 9% of total auto sales in 2020. Peter Bohr, Current Cars, Ready or not, here come the Plug Ins , Westways Magazine, May 2011. (http://www.pikeresearch.com/research/plug-in-hybrid-electric-vehicles) © 2009, Itron Inc. Alternative Perspectives Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) for the 2008 Integrate Resource Plan is based on the July 2007 joint study by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) and the Natural Resource Defense Council (NRDC) on PHEVs Seattle City Light, 2010 Integrated Resource Plan, Appendix D http://www.cityofseattle.net/light/news/issues/irp/docs/dbg_538_app_d_3.pdf Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn is predicting that they will account for 10% of the global auto market by 2020. CNN 4/21/2011 © 2009, Itron Inc. Photovoltaics © 2009, Itron Inc. The Players First Solar Hanwha Solar One Sharp Canadian Solar Suntech Sunpower Yingli Green Energy Renewable Energy Trina Solar Corporation JA Solar Solarworld Motech Panasonic/Sanyo Gintech LDK Solar © 2009, Itron Inc. http://greenworldinvestor.com/2011/02/18/list-of-worlds-major-solar-energy-companies/ Historical Trends Prior to 2010, the U.S. PV market had grown at an average annual rate of 69% over the previous ten years, rising from just 3.9 megawatts (MW) in 2000 to 435 MW in 2009 2010 Grid-connected PV installations grew 102% in 2010 to reach 878 MW, up from 435 MW in 2009, bringing cumulative installed PV capacity in the U.S. to 2.1 GW © 2009, Itron Inc. SEIA, U.S. Solar Market Insight 2010 Review Market Diversity Residential installations showed stable growth in 2010. Residential demand is largely beholden to incentive funding availability. Non-residential installations were slow to recover from the financial crisis with fourth quarter installations doubling over the first quarter installations. Non-residential incentives and project financing were key for the late 2010 surge © 2009, Itron Inc. SEIA, U.S. Solar Market Insight 2010 Review Regional Growth 2007, only four U.S. states installed over 10 MW of PV each: California, New Jersey, Colorado and Nevada. 2010, 16 states installed over 10 MW 2010, 5 states (Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada and New Jersey) installed over 50 MW 2010, New Jersey and California install over 100 MW © 2009, Itron Inc. SEIA, U.S. Solar Market Insight 2010 Review Solar Concern Issue: Growing solar generation has the potential to alter load shapes and change quickly during the course of a day © 2009, Itron Inc. Solar Shape Variations © 2009, Itron Inc. EIPA Forecast Growth is expected to be strong with policy commitments from California and President Obama © 2009, Itron Inc. European Photovoltaic Industry Association, 2014 Global Market Outlook For Photovoltaic's until 2014, May 2010 Ontario Market ClearSky Advisor forecast: Total Installed Capacity of 2.6 GW by 2015. 2011 – 454 MW 2012 – 696 MW Slowing growth after 2013 © 2009, Itron Inc. www.pv-magazine.com Solar Forecasting Issues Saturation of PV is driven by Policy > Incentives. When incentives are in place, the market grows quickly. 2010 growth driven by US funding and declining funding in Europe > Caps. Most programs put caps on the number of MW for incentives. These programs tend to reach their caps quickly. Solar Shot > To reduce the total costs of photovoltaic solar energy systems by about 75% before the end of the decade. This would reduce the cost of solar to roughly 6 cents per kilowatt-hour. > Research and Development grants, loans, and awards Local Incentives are for end-use installation > Vary on a utility-by-utility basis Without incentives, the PV saturations would be negligible > Cost is 4 x higher than central generation stations > Need subsidies of 40-50 cents/kWh © 2009, Itron Inc..