BRIEFING PAPER Number CBP-8517, 6 March 2019 By Matthew Keep Philip Brien Spring Statement 2019 Daniel Harari Contents: 1. Spring Statement and Brexit 2. Economic situation 3. The public finances 4. Parliament’s fiscal year www.parliament.uk/commons-library | intranet.parliament.uk/commons-library | [email protected] | @commonslibrary 2 Spring Statement 2019 Contents Summary 3 1. Spring Statement and Brexit 5 1.1 The second Spring Statement 5 What can we expect from the statement? 5 1.2 Brexit 5 Key votes in Parliament 5 The OBR: forecasting and Brexit 6 2. Economic situation 8 2.1 Recent economic developments 8 Economic growth slowed towards end of 2018... 8 ...as did the world economy 9 Consumer spending the main source of growth 10 Business investment has declined 12 2.2 Economic outlook 13 Modest GDP growth expected in early 2019 13 OBR unlikely to change its growth forecasts much 13 Forecasts assume a ‘smooth’ Brexit 14 3. The public finances 16 3.1 Government borrowing (the deficit) 16 Borrowing has fallen significantly since 2010…. 16 ….has been falling in 2018/19…. 17 ….and is forecast to fall further. 18 3.2 Public sector net debt 18 The debt-to-GDP ratio remains relatively high…. 19 ….but has started to fall 19 3.3 Targets for the public sector finances 19 3.4 The 2019 Spending Review 21 4. Parliament’s fiscal year 23 Appendix 1: Further information 24 Appendix 2: Economic and public finance data 1979-2023 26 Contributing Authors: Philip Brien (spending review) Daniel Harari (economic situation) Cover page image copyright Grey squirrel by Bruno Nascimento. Licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0 / image cropped. 3 Commons Library Briefing, 6 March 2019 Summary The Chancellor, Philip Hammond, will make his Spring Statement on 13 March 2019. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) will publish revised forecasts for the economy and public finances on the same day. The Chancellor’s statement is likely to largely be a response to the OBR’s forecasts. Brexit: votes in Parliament (section 1.2) Spring Statement 2019 is set to take place at a time when Parliament’s attention will be focused on the UK’s withdrawal from the EU. In particular, the House of Commons is set to have a ‘meaningful vote’ on the EU-UK Withdrawal Agreement and framework for the future relationship on or before 12 March 2019. If the Commons again rejects the deal, there will be a vote on whether MPs support leaving the EU without a deal, on 13 March. If the Commons rejects leaving without a deal, there will be a vote on requesting an extension of the withdrawal process (Article 50), on 14 March. Brexit: the OBR’s forecasts (section 1.2) Forecasting is difficult at the best of times. The UK’s withdrawal from the EU makes it even more so, not least because Brexit isn’t a momentary event, but an extended process of changing policy. Since the EU referendum result the OBR has assumed that the UK-EU negotiations “lead to an orderly transition to a new long-term relationship, whatever that relationship may be.” If the UK’s withdrawal is less than orderly, then the OBR’s outlook for the economy and public finances is likely to become more pessimistic in future forecasts. Economic situation (section 2) GDP growth of 1.4% in 2018 was the slowest since 2012, with growth easing towards the end of the year. Two key factors behind this slowdown were a weaker global economy and uncertainty related to Brexit. The world economy has been characterised by the Chinese economy growing less quickly, trade tensions (particularly between the US and China), and a sharply slowing Eurozone economy. Domestically, Brexit- related uncertainty has been blamed for falling business investment as the UK approaches its scheduled date for leaving the EU on March 29. Consumer spending has underpinned growth recently, supported by a historically-high proportion of the population in employment and average wage growth starting to pick-up. The outlook for 2019 is dominated by Brexit and on what terms the UK leaves the EU. Under an assumption of an ‘orderly’ or ‘smooth’ departure from the EU, GDP growth of around 1-1½% for 2019 is generally forecast by economists. Should the UK leave the EU without a deal, disruption is expected to lead to weaker growth. The Bank of England Governor Mark Carney has said he “guarantee[s]” the Bank’s GDP forecasts would be lowered in such a scenario. The OBR has 4 Spring Statement 2019 previously warned that there could be severe short-term implications of a no-deal Brexit, although the scale is hard to predict. Public finances (section 3) Government borrowing has decreased from the peaks reached following the 2007-2008 financial crisis, and is now at a more typical level. Government borrowed £42 billion in 2017/18 to make up the difference between its spending and income raised from taxes and other sources. At 2% of GDP, this was below the average for the past 70 years. While the Government’s borrowing situation has improved, its debt – broadly speaking the stock of past borrowing – remains high. Public sector net debt at the end of 2017/18 was equal to 85% of GDP. The debt-to-GDP ratio was last above 85% in the mid-to-late 1960s, when it was still recovering from reaching over 200% of GDP during World War II. Further information The Library will publish a summary of Spring Statement 2019 on the evening of 13 March. The Library will publish its summary of UK Economic Indicators before the Budget. 5 Commons Library Briefing, 6 March 2019 1. Spring Statement and Brexit 1.1 The second Spring Statement The Chancellor, Philip Hammond, will make his Spring Statement on 13 March 2019. Recent tradition had seen the Chancellor of the Exchequer present the Budget in spring. However, the current Chancellor moved the Budget to autumn, and has introduced a Spring Statement starting in 2018. What can we expect from the statement? On the day, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) – the UK’s public finances watchdog – will publish its updated forecasts for the economy and public finances. The Chancellor’s Spring Statement will largely provide a formal response to the OBR’s forecasts. The OBR is required to present updated forecasts twice a year (they publish their other set of forecasts alongside the autumn Budget).1 As part of its forecast, the OBR will assess the Government’s progress against their targets for the public sector finances (see section 2.3) The Chancellor does not envisage using Spring Statements as an opportunity to make new spending or tax announcements: he has said that Spring Statements will be ‘no major fiscal event’. If unexpected economic changes require it, the Chancellor has reserved “the right to announce actions at the Spring Statement”, but has said that he “will not make significant changes twice a year just for the sake of it.”2 The wider challenges for the economy and public finances may be reviewed at the Spring Statement, and consultations launched on how they may be addressed.3 1.2 Brexit Key votes in Parliament Spring Statement 2019 is set to take place at a time when Parliament’s attention will be focused on the UK’s withdrawal from the EU: • The House of Commons is expected to have a “meaningful vote” on the Withdrawal Agreement and the framework for the future relationship by 12 March 2019;4 • If the Withdrawal Agreement is not approved in the meaningful vote then there will be a vote on whether MPs support leaving the EU without a deal on 13 March 2019. If MPs do not support a no- 1 The requirement is laid out in the Charter for Budget Responsibility 2 HC Deb 23 November 2016 c910 3 HM Treasury press notice, The new Budget timetable: 7 things you need to know, 23 November 2016 4 The Library briefing A User's Guide to the Meaningful Vote explains what the meaningful vote is and Parliament’s role in approving the Withdrawal Agreement. 6 Spring Statement 2019 deal Brexit, then on 14 March 2018 MPs will vote on requesting an extension to the two-year Article 50 negotiation process;5 • The European Council (the heads of state or government of the Member States) will meet on 21-22 March; • If Article 50 is not extended, the UK will cease to be an EU Member State on 29 March 2019, either with a Withdrawal Agreement or without (following a vote by MPs to support a no- deal exit).6 The “meaningful vote” is set to take place days (or even a day) before Spring Statement 2019: the result of the vote may have an impact on the tone and content (and potentially the date) of the Chancellor’s statement. Whatever the result of the “meaningful vote” it will not come in time for the OBR to factor the outcome into their forecasts for the economy and public finances. Broadly speaking, the forecast process takes 10 weeks with the OBR providing its final forecast during the week before the statement. The following section explains how the fiscal watchdog have incorporated Brexit into their forecasts since the referendum result. The OBR: forecasting and Brexit The OBR is required to produce its forecasts for the economy and public finances on the basis of current Government policy and the forecasts are adopted by the Government as their official forecasts.7 The OBR cannot consider alternative policy scenarios. This means that the OBR cannot produce forecasts based on different outcomes for the UK’s withdrawal from the EU.