A Document of The World Bank Group Public Disclosure Authorized FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No. 123807-SO FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF SOMALIA SYSTEMATIC COUNTRY DIAGNOSTIC Public Disclosure Authorized May 1, 2018 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized i SOMALIA – GOVERNMENT FISCAL YEAR January 1 – December 31 CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange Rate Effective as of April 1, 2018) Currency Unit: = Somali Shillings (SOS) US$1.00 = TZS 577 Abbreviations and Acronyms AfDB African Development Bank AMISOM African Union Mission in Somalia AML Anti-Money Laundering AS Al Shabaab ASWL Association of Somalia Women Lawyers CAMEL Capital, Assets, Management, Earnings, Liquidity CBS Central Bank of Somalia CFT Combating the Financing of Terrorism COGWO Coalition of Grassroot Women’s Organizations DFID Department for International Development DG District Government EEZ Exclusive Economic Zone FAO Food and Agriculture Organization FATF Financial Action Task Force FGC Financial Governance Committee GCC Gulf Cooperation Council GBV Gender-based violence GBVIMS GBV Information Management System GDP Gross Domestic Product HH Household ICT Information and communication technology IDA International Development Association IDLO International Development Law Organization IDP Internally displaced people IGAD Inter-Governmental Authority on Development IMF International Monetary Fund INDC Intended Nationally Determined Contribution INPB Interim National Procurement Board IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's IPV Intimate partner violence IRC International Rescue Committee LICs Low Income Countries ii MFIs Microfinance institutions MICS Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey MNO Mobile network operator MoJ Ministry of Justice MTB Money transfer businesses MTOs Money transfer operations NISA National Intelligence and Security Agency NGO Non-governmental Organization NPS New Partnership for Somalia NRC Norwegian Refugee Council OAG Office of the Auditor General PER Public Expenditure Review PES Population Estimate Survey PMPF Puntland Maritime Police Force PPMA Puntland Petroleum and Mineral Agency PPP Public private partnerships RAI Rural Access Index SCD Systematic Country Diagnostic SEI Somali Electrification Institute SEMG Somalia-Eritrea Monitoring Group SGBV Sexual gender-based violence SIM Subscriber Identification Module SISh Somaliland shilling SMEs Small and Medium Enterprises SMP Staff Monitored Program SWALIM Somalia Water and Land Information Management SWDC Somali Women’s Development Centre TFG Transitional Federal Government TFR Total fertility rate TIKA Turkish Cooperation and Coordination Agency TNG Transitional National Government UA African Union UNDP United Nations Development Program UNFPA United Nations Population Fund UN-HABITAT United Nations Human Settlements Program UNHCR United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees UNICEF United Nations Children’s Fund UNOCHA United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs UNOPS United Nations Office for Project Services UNSC United Nations Security Council WIDEs Widely diversified enterprises iii Acknowledgments This report was prepared by a team led by Harun Dogo, Utz Pape, and Kevin Carey and composed of Jeff Chelsky, Peishan Yeo, Charles Fox, and Lisa Thalheimer, and interns Matthew Salm, Derrick Siebman, and Joseph Snider. The work benefited from the guidance and supervision of Bella Bird, Abebe Adugna, and Hugh Riddell. Members of the country team from the various global practices and the country management unit contributed to this document as shown in the table below. Sources from the World Bank’s broad portfolio of analytical and advisory work are documented wherever practicable. We thank Keith Garrett and the Geospatial Operations Support Team for their technical assistance, their expertise, and their hospitality during the course of this work. Any mistakes or omissions are the responsibility of the task team leaders alone. Somalia Country Team Global Practice/Theme Team Member SCD task team leaders Harun Dogo, Kevin Carey, Utz Johann Pape SCD team Jeff Chelsky, Peishan Yeo, Charles Fox, Lisa Thalheimer, Matthew Salm, Derrick Siebman and Joseph Snider. Program leaders/Country Andre Bald (Sustainable Development), Gayle Martin (Human Development), Yutaka Management Unit Yoshino (Equitable Growth, Finance, and Institutions), Preeti Arora (Country Program Coordinator) Hugh Riddell (Country Representative), Puteri Watson, Sarah Cramer, Matthias Mayr Environment and Natural Resources John Bryant Collier, Charlotte De Fontaubert, Tracy Hart Agriculture Stephen Paul D’ Alessandro, Water Chantal Richey, Dominick Revell de Waal Energy and Extractives Alexander Huurdeman, Mohab Hallouda, Patrick Balla Transport and Digital Development James Markland, Tim Kelly, Axel Perez, Atsushi Iimi, Rachel Firestone Social, Urban, Rural and Resilience Bernard Harborne, Verena Phipps, Dean Cira, Zishan Karim, Sheila Kamunyori Infrastructure, PPP, and Guarantees Junglim Hahm Climate Change Ana Boucher Geospatial Operations Support Team Keith Garrett, Bernhard Metz Health, Nutrition and Population HuiHui Wang Education Nalin Jena, Ousman Ali Social Protection and Jobs Maniza Naqvi, Zaineb Majoka Poverty and Equity Utz Johann Pape Macroeconomics, Trade, and John Randa, Abdulqafar Abdulahi, Catherine Ngumbau Investment Finance, Competitiveness, and Steven Dimitriyev, Fred Zake, Suhail Kassim, Laura Watson, Benjamin Musuku Innovation Governance Geoff Handley, Ikechi Okorie, Leonard Matheka, Alex Appiah-Koranteng, Deborah Isser Fragility, Conflict, and Violence Alexandre Marc, Matthias Mayr, Daniela Henrike Klau Panhans, Diego Garrido Martin Gender Daniel Kirkwood International Finance Corporation Michel M. Botzung, Adamou Labara, Zahia Msuya Lolila Multilateral Investment Guarantee Stephan Dreyhaupt Agency iv Table of Contents Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................................... 1 I. Country Context..................................................................................................................................... 8 A. Recent History ................................................................................................................................... 9 B. Conflict and Violence ...................................................................................................................... 10 C. Political Dynamics ........................................................................................................................... 12 D. Economic Growth ............................................................................................................................ 13 E. Poverty and Equity .......................................................................................................................... 16 F. Analytical Framework ..................................................................................................................... 17 G. Identification of Constraints ............................................................................................................ 19 H. Knowledge and Data Gaps .............................................................................................................. 20 II. Natural Capital ..................................................................................................................................... 23 A. Vulnerability to Climate Change ..................................................................................................... 24 B. Water Scarcity ................................................................................................................................. 26 C. Agriculture ....................................................................................................................................... 28 D. Fisheries and Oceans ....................................................................................................................... 29 E. Oil and Gas ...................................................................................................................................... 30 III. Produced Capital .............................................................................................................................. 32 A. Power ............................................................................................................................................... 33 B. Transportation .................................................................................................................................. 34 C. Information and Communication Technologies .............................................................................. 35 D. Urbanization and Land Administration ........................................................................................... 36 IV. Human Capital ....................................................................................................................................... 39 A. Population ........................................................................................................................................ 39 B. Health ............................................................................................................................................... 40 C. Education ........................................................................................................................................