This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 837089. Topic: LC-SC3-CC-2-2018 of the Horizon 2020 work program: Modelling in support to the transition to a Low-Carbon Energy System in Europe BUILDING A LOW-CARBON, CLIMATE RESILIENT FUTURE: SECURE, CLEAN AND EFFICIENT ENERGY Project number: 837089 Project name: Sustainable Energy Transitions Laboratory Project acronym: SENTINEL Start date: 01/06/2019 Duration: 36 months Deliverable reference number and title: D7.1: Case specification and scheduling Version: 1 Due date of deliverable: 02.2021 Actual submission date: 04.03.2021 Dissemination Level PU Public X CO Confidential, only for members of the consortium (including the Commission Services) EU-RES Classified Information: RESTREINT UE (Commission Decision 2005/444/EC) EU-CON Classified Information: CONFIDENTIEL UE (Commission Decision 2005/444/EC) EU-SEC Classified Information: SECRET UE (Commission Decision 2005/444/EC) 1 Note about contributors This deliverable has been prepared by the teams of the University of Piraeus Research Centre (UPRC), the Renewable Grid Initiative (RGI), the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS) Potsdam, and the Public Power Corporation (PPC). WP leader responsible for the deliverable: Alexandros Flamos (UPRC) Contributors: Vassilis Stavrakas (UPRC) Nikos Kleanthis (UPRC) George Giannakidis (UPRC) Alexandros Flamos (UPRC) Andrzej Ceglarz (RGI) Amanda Schibline (RGI) Diana Süsser (IASS) Johan Lilliestam (IASS) Alexandra Psyrri (PPC) SENTINEL Internal Reviewer: Anthony Patt (ETHZ) Please cite as: Stavrakas, V., Ceglarz, A., Kleanthis, N., Giannakidis, G., Schibline, A., Süsser, D., Lilliestam, J., Psyrri, A., & Flamos, A. (2021). Case specification and scheduling. Deliverable 7.1. Sustainable Energy Transitions Laboratory (SENTINEL) project. European Commission. University of Piraeus Research Center (UPRC), Piraeus, Greece. This report is licensed under a Creative Commons License Attribution 4.0 International License For more information about the Creative Commons License, including the full legal text, please visit: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ 2 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS/ DISCLAIMER The authors would like to acknowledge the support from the EC. The authors would like to thank SENTINEL colleagues for their contributions to specific sections relevant to their models and modelling themes. The authors would also like to thank the stakeholders that participated to the case study interview meetings, focus groups and thematic workshops. The content of this report is the sole responsibility of its authors and does not necessary reflect the views of the EC. 3 Contents Contents ............................................................................................................................................................. 4 List of Figures.................................................................................................................................................... 6 List of Tables ..................................................................................................................................................... 6 Abbreviations & Acronyms ............................................................................................................................... 7 Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................... 9 1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................................. 11 1.1. Background .................................................................................................................................... 11 1.1.1. National level case study (Greece) ........................................................................................ 12 1.1.2. Regional level case study (Nordic countries) ....................................................................... 13 1.1.3. Continental level case study (European Union, Iceland, Norway, Switzerland, and United Kingdom)................................................................................................................................... 13 1.2. Objectives and scope of this deliverable ...................................................................................... 14 1.3. Structure of this report ................................................................................................................. 15 2. A participatory multi-methods approach ................................................................................................ 16 3. Case specifications & scheduling ........................................................................................................... 22 3.1. National level case study: “Energy transition in Greece towards 2030 & 2050: Critical issues, challenges & research priorities”............................................................................................................. 22 3.1.1. Background on Policies & Targets ....................................................................................... 22 3.1.2. Energy Scenarios & Narratives ............................................................................................ 23 3.1.3. Critical issues, Challenges & Research questions ............................................................... 28 3.2. Regional level case study: “The Nordic Region- a frontrunner of the decarbonised energy systems” ...................................................................................................................................................... 46 3.2.1. Background on Policies & Targets ....................................................................................... 46 3.2.2. Energy Scenarios & Narratives ............................................................................................ 48 3.2.3. Critical issues, Challenges & Research questions ............................................................... 49 3.3. Continental level case study: “The future of the European energy system- Unveiling the blueprint towards a climate-neutral economy” ...................................................................................... 63 3.3.1. Background on Policies and Targets.................................................................................... 63 3.3.2. Energy Scenarios & Narratives ............................................................................................ 65 3.3.3. Critical issues, Challenges & Research questions ............................................................... 67 4. Discussion ............................................................................................................................................... 84 4.1. Common issues and differences .................................................................................................... 85 4.2. Limitations of our study and their implications ......................................................................... 85 4.3. Outlook: development of participatory transition pathways and qualitative storylines ........ 86 References ....................................................................................................................................................... 88 Appendix ......................................................................................................................................................... 95 Section A. National case study background information ...................................................................... 95 A1. Agenda of the National level case study workshop that was cancelled ........................................... 95 4 Section B. Regional case study background information .................................................................... 100 B1. Agenda of the Regional level case study workshop ....................................................................... 100 Section C. Continental case study background information ............................................................... 102 C1. Agenda of the Continental level case study workshop................................................................... 102 5 List of Figures Figure 1. SENTINEL case studies: a. National level case study (Greece), b. Regional level case study (Nordic region), and c. Continental level case study (European Union, Iceland, Norway, Switzerland, and United Kingdom). ........................................................................................................................................................ 12 Figure 2. A three-tier participatory multi-methods approach as applied to all the three SENTINEL case studies. ......................................................................................................................................................................... 16 Figure 3. Overall stakeholder engagement activities under WP7 during the period October 2019- December 2020, for all the three SENTINEL case studies. .............................................................................................. 21 Figure 4. National targets of the energy transition in Greece by 2030 for the three main priorities outlined in the Greek Energy and National Plan.Source: (Ministry of Environment and Energy, 2019b). Adapted by the authors.