Contested States The Struggle for Survival and Recognition in the Post-1945 International Order Shpend Kursani Thesis submitted for assessment with a view to obtaining the degree of Doctor of Political and Social Sciences of the European University Institute Florence, 23 July 2020 European University Institute Department of Political and Social Sciences Contested States The Struggle for Survival and Recognition in the Post-1945 International Order Shpend Kursani Thesis submitted for assessment with a view to obtaining the degree of Doctor of Political and Social Sciences of the European University Institute Examining Board Professor Jennifer Welsh, European University Institute (Supervisor) Professor Dorothee Bohle, European University Institute Professor Nina Caspersen, University of York Professor Eiki Berg, University of Tartu © Shpend Kursani, 2020 No part of this thesis may be copied, reproduced or transmitted without prior permission of the author Researcher declaration to accompany the submission of written work (Department of Political and Social Sciences - Doctoral Programme) I, Shpend Kursani certify that I am the author of the work “Contested States: The Struggle for Survival and Recognition in the post-1945 International Order” I have presented for examination for the Ph.D. at the European University Institute. I also certify that this is solely my own original work, other than where I have clearly indicated, in this declaration and in the thesis, that it is the work of others. I warrant that I have obtained all the permissions required for using any material from other copyrighted publications. I certify that this work complies with the Code of Ethics in Academic Research issued by the European University Institute (IUE 332/2/10 (CA 297). The copyright of this work rests with its author. Quotation from it is permitted, provided that full acknowledgement is made. This work may not be reproduced without my prior written consent. This authorisation does not, to the best of my knowledge, infringe the rights of any third party. I declare that this work consists of 81,130 words. Statement of language correction Not applicable Signature and date: 1 July 2020 Abstract One of the most fundamental principles underpinning the post-World War II order, on which there is a broad and long-held consensus, is that once admitted into the club of universally recognized states, a political entity’s territory and borders become sacred. The phenomenon of the “contested state,” however, stubbornly challenges this sacred consensus, by suggesting that the current membership in and territorial configuration of the international society may not be entirely fixed. With three standalone substantive chapters, this thesis investigates three different aspects of contested states’ relationship with the existing society of states. In Chapter 1, I attempt to make sense of the existence of these entities alongside other actors in the international system. By employing an ontological approach, I argue that a constellation of four dimensions constitutes a contested state as an independent non-UN member state, over which another State lays claim. My approach not only establishes these entities more clearly as a separate analytical category in world politics, worthy of detailed study, but also specifies these entities’ distinct behavior when compared to other actors populating the same international system. Departing from the empirical reality that more than half of the thirty contested states have already died, Chapter 2 investigates the conditions under which contested states survive in the post-1945 international order. By employing an original time-series dataset and applying a comparative configurational analysis of the universe of cases of contested states, I show that three pathways to survival sufficiently capture the patterns underlying the persistence of these entities. The Chapter shows that, while external support is not a necessary condition for contested state survival, what happens outside a contested state’s own “domestic” realm, nevertheless, plays a crucial role in keeping these entities alive. The findings of this Chapter unearth a contradiction that exists between the prerogatives of territorial i integrity and the aims for peace and stability of the post-WWII international legal and normative order. Chapter 3 conducts a critical analysis of the nature and effect of contested states’ struggle for recognition by focusing on Palestine and Kosovo. While seeking recognition and maintaining the hope of eventual membership in the society of states is an understandable objective, I argue that for contested states, recognition has a price. The post-WWII international legal and normative order has presented contested states with a trade-off. In seeking to achieve universal international recognition, contested states must curb their claims to self-determination and sacrifice some of the elements of empirical statehood they have managed to establish. Taken together, these chapters make a set of empirical, methodological, and theoretical contributions, not only for the study of contested states but also for the general discipline of IR. ii Acknowledgements Acknowledgements are usually boring. Not least, because they are, very often, the same. Mine will not be much different. But I cannot refuse to write one to acknowledge a lot of people that have helped me materialize this thesis. While I acknowledge many people, the names of only a few will feature here. First and foremost, I must admit that this thesis would have not been completed without the advice and constant engagement of my supervisor, Jennifer Welsh. Jennifer has been a guide throughout this thesis beyond my expectations and comprehension. My engagement with broader International Relations theory, and beyond, would not have been possible if it was not for Jennifer. All the limitations in this respect rest with me. I never had in mind to acknowledge the Examiners of the thesis, for this is also boringly expected. I have to admit that after receiving their absolutely enlightening remarks which have put my thesis beyond what I expected Examiners would be able to do, and this too, rests with me, I cannot but extend my utmost gratitude to Nina Caspersen, Eiki Berg, and Dorothee Bohle as Examiners of this thesis. There are many other people to thank. I do thank especially those who had to put up with me during the process of researching for and writing this thesis. My attitude towards the hierarchy in academia and the knowledge production industry could have, at times, been slightly smoother. Not that I agree with this alternative, but acknowledged must be the fact that, without intention, I may have affected many people with or without my presence. I am grateful for their patience. iii Contents Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 1 Chapter One Reconsidering the Contested State in the post-1945 International Relations: An Ontological Approach ....................................................................................................................................... 19 The concept(s) of contested state: an assessment ..................................................................... 22 Reconsidering the contested state: the ontological approach.................................................... 28 Theoretical implications (and utilities) of the ontological approach ........................................ 38 Empirical-procedural applicability: contested states after 1945 ............................................... 45 A short nota bene: the label of the “contested state” ................................................................ 47 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................ 48 Chapter Two The Grotian, Hobbesian, and Bodinian Pathways to Survival: Contested States in the post-1945 International Order ....................................................................................................................... 51 State contestation, survival, and death in International Relations ............................................ 57 Pathways to contested state survival: a three-level analytical framework ................................ 60 Research design......................................................................................................................... 69 Analysis and discussion ............................................................................................................ 79 Conclusions and some implications .......................................................................................... 89 Chapter Three Trading Internal Sovereignty for International Legitimacy: The Paradox in Palestine’s and Kosovo’s Struggle for Recognition ............................................................................................... 93 The international environment of “negotiated statehood” ...................................................... 100 Palestine: “taming” self-determination ambitions for recognition ......................................... 105 Kosovo: compromising effective statehood for recognition ................................................... 116 Conclusion .............................................................................................................................. 129 Conclusion .................................................................................................................................