SWAZILAND MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE SWAZILAND MARKET ASSESSMENT REPORT DECEMBER 2016 ______________________Shiselweni Region Food Security and Resilience________________________ 0 SWAZILAND MARKET ASSESSMENT REPORT - 2016 Table of Contents List of Figures .....................................................................................................................................2 List of Tables ......................................................................................................................................3 List of Maps .......................................................................................................................................2 Acknowledgments .............................................................................................................................5 Executive summary ............................................................................................................................6 Section 1: Introduction .......................................................................................................................8 1.1 The Economy ............................................................................................................................9 1.2 Food Availability ..................................................................................................................... 11 1.3 Food Security and Nutrition – SwaziVAC 2016.......................................................................... 15 Section 2: Objectives, methodology and limitations .......................................................................... 18 2.1 Objectives .............................................................................................................................. 18 2.2 Methodology .......................................................................................................................... 19 2.3 Limitations ............................................................................................................................. 21 Section 3: Swaziland Food Market Structure and Conduct ................................................................. 22 Figure 3: ................................................................................................................................... 26 Figure 4: ................................................................................................................................... 28 Figure 5: ................................................................................................................................... 29 Figure 6: ................................................................................................................................... 30 Section 4: Price Analysis ................................................................................................................... 32 4.1 Price Trends and Seasonality ................................................................................................... 33 4.2 Price Volatility ........................................................................................................................ 33 4.3 Market Price Integration ......................................................................................................... 40 Section 5: Assessment of Traders and Markets ................................................................................. 42 5.1 Traders’ Characteristics ........................................................................................................... 44 5.2 Flow and Volume of Traded Commodities ............................................................................... 47 5.3 Credit and Stock Strategy ........................................................................................................ 49 5.4 Response Capacity and Constraints ......................................................................................... 52 Section 6: Conclusions and Recommendations .................................................................................. 55 6.1 Conclusions ............................................................................................................................ 55 6.2 Recommendations .................................................................................................................. 57 Section 7: References ....................................................................................................................... 58 Section 8: Annexes ........................................................................................................................... 59 Annex 1: Terms of Reference ........................................................................................................ 59 1 SWAZILAND MARKET ASSESSMENT REPORT - 2016 List of Figures Figure 1: Exchange Rate over Time: South African Rand per 1 US $ ---------------------------------------------------- 10 Figure 2: Rainfall and NDVI across four regions in Swaziland ------------------------------------------------------------- 14 Figure 3: Swaziland maize trade flow diagram ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 26 Figure 4: Swaziland rice trade flow diagram ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 28 Figure 5: Swaziland sugar beans trade flow diagram ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 29 Figure 6: Swaziland sunflower oil trade flow diagram ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 30 Figure 7: Swaziland annual cropping calendar -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 33 Figure 8: Wholesale price of white maize in South Africa compared to FAO Food Price Index over time ---- 34 Figure 9: Nominal national average price trend for 4 food commodities (SZL/Kg): Jan 2015 – Oct 2016 ----- 35 Figure 10: Maize meal and Rice grand seasonal national price index 2010-16 --------------------------------------- 36 Figure 11: Swaziland national average maize meal 2016-17 forecast retail price (SZL/1kg) compared to 2015/16 price trend and five-year average prices --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 37 Figure 12: Swaziland national average rice 2016-17 forecast retail price (SZL/1kg) compared to 2015/16 price trend and five-year average prices --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 38 Figure 13: Analyzing the coefficient of variation for selected markets in Swaziland: 2015-16------------------- 40 Figure 15: National average of trader gender (Swaziland 2016 Market Assessment) ------------------------------ 44 Figure 16: National average of trader gender (Swaziland 2016 Market Assessment) ------------------------------ 45 Figure 17: Average number of days it takes to restock by region ------------------------------------------------------- 49 Figure 18: Trader average credit provided to customers by region in October 2016 as a per cent of their total sales in October 2016 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 50 Figure 19: Trader Storage Structure --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 51 Figure 20: Per cent of traders by region reporting that they can meet demand increases of 100% for maize meal, pulses and cooking oil ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 53 Figure 21: Timeframe to meet an increase in demand of 50% with adequate volume per commodity ------- 53 Figure 22: Price trend related to a 25% increase in demand -------------------------------------------------------------- 54 Figure 23: Main reported trader constraints ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 55 List of Maps Map 1: Southern Africa Two Year (June 2014 – May 2016 Rainfall extremes within 1984-2016 Percentiles) ...................................................................................................................................... 11 Map 2: Southern Africa Predicted Rainfall January – March 2017 ...................................................... 15 Map 3: Geo-locations of markets assessed ........................................................................................ 21 2 SWAZILAND MARKET ASSESSMENT REPORT - 2016 List of Tables Table 1: GDP by sector (percentage of GDP at current prices) ..............................................................9 Table 2: Inflation Trends; July 2015 to July 2016 ................................................................................ 10 Table 3: SADC 2016-17 cereal availability update – (RVAC, August 2016) ........................................... 12 Table 4a: SADC 2016-17 Maize availability update – (RVAC, August 2016).......................................... 13 Table 4b: Swaziland - AEZ Maize Production 2009/10–2014/15 (tonnes) with 2015/16 Production Forecast ........................................................................................................................................... 13 Table 5: Vulnerable Population by Regions – 2nd IPC Projection (October 2016 – February 2017) ........ 15 Table 6: Changes in the number of food insecure people in southern Africa 2010/11 – 2016/17 ......... 17 Table 7: Districts covered by the 10 teams