EYE ON ALBERTA ALBERTA’S PUBLIC AFFAIRS MONITOR FEBRUARY 2019 Copyright © 2019 ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc. All rights reserved The contents of this document are the exclusive property of ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc., and may not be used in any manner whatsoever, without the prior written consent of ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc. No license under any copyright is hereby granted or implied. www.thinkhq.com | 1 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY • Study Fielded via online research panel − Field dates: January 31 to February 6, 2019 − Panel source: ThinkHQ Connect & MARU • n=1,158 • Weighted to reFlect gender, age and region oF Alberta population according to Stats Canada • This online survey utilizes a representative but non-random sample, therefore margin oF error is not applicable. However, a probability sample oF this size would yield a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points at a 95% conFidence interval • Accuracy of sub-samples oF the data decline based on sample sizes CONFIDENTIAL: Eye on Alberta – February 2019 Copyright © 2019 ThinkHQ Public AFFairs Inc. All rights reserved. www.thinkhq.com | 2 REGIONAL SAMPLE SIZES AND MARGINS OF ERROR Total Interviews Total Interviews Margin of Error (Associated with a (Unweighted) (Weighted) probability sample of (n) (n) this size) ALBERTA TOTAL 1,158 1,158 +/- 2.9 Calgary 409 404 +/- 4.9 Edmonton 341 365 +/- 5.3 North 106 139 +/- 9.5 Central 158 130 +/- 7.8 South 144 119 +/- 8.2 CONFIDENTIAL: Eye on Alberta – February 2019 Copyright © 2019 ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc. All rights reserved. www.thinkhq.com | 3 ALBERTA’S POLITICAL LANDSCAPE CONFIDENTIAL: Eye on Alberta – February 2019 Copyright © 2019 ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc. All rights reserved. www.thinkhq.com | 4 ALBERTA’S POLITICAL LANDSCAPE -IS NOTLEY THE NDP’S “SECRET WEAPON”? The lead up to the provincial campaign has the NDP government trying to draw a stark contrast in leadership between themselves and the UCP. The underlying premise of this strategy says that Notley is a popular Premier; Kenney is an unpopular Opposition Leader, and; it is better to have voters concentrating on “who will be the best premier” than on less appealing areas of the NDP’s record as government. Is this a sound strategy? Will it be effective? We won’t have to wait long to find out, but at first blush there are weaknesses. First and foremost, the underlying premise isn’t correct. • Notley and Kenny are fairly evenly matched when it comes to approval. The Premier currently sits at 44% approval, compared to Kenney at 43% but she also suffers from higher disapproval than the UCP leader (51% vs. 45%) o Notley appeals more to more urban voters o Kenney appeals more to more rural/suburban voters. Kenney also has a “gender gap” issue o Notley is more popular among undecideds than Kenney, but there are limits on growth from this group; One-half of undecided voters disapprove of the Premier Notley likely is the most potent weapon in the NDP arsenal, but this is as much a reflection of the party’s limitations as it is of her leadership. Her approval numbers track ahead of the NDP’s vote-share (unlike Kenney’s), and her approval among likely NDP voters is almost universal. CONFIDENTIAL: Eye on Alberta – February 2019 Copyright © 2019 ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc. All rights reserved. www.thinkhq.com | 5 PROVINCIAL LEADERSHIP EVALUATIONS Would you generally say you approve or disapprove of the performance of the following provincial party leaders? Strongly Somewhat Net Rachel Notley - NDP Approval Unsure Approve 21% 23% 44% -7 6% Disapprove 36% 15% 51% Jason Kenney - United Conservative Party Approve 21% 22% 43% -2 12% Disapprove 36% 9% 45% David Khan - Liberals Approve 14% 15% -29 41% Disapprove 25% 19% 44% Stephen Mandel - Alberta Party Approve 21% 23% -15 38% Disapprove 16% 22% 38% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Base: All respondents (n=1,158) CONFIDENTIAL: Eye on Alberta – February 2019 Copyright © 2019 ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc. All rights reserved. www.thinkhq.com | 6 LEADER APPROVAL -BY REGION AND PROVINCIAL VOTE INTENTION Would you generally say you approve or disapprove of the performance of the following provincial party leaders? Region Provincial Vote Intention Strongly Somewhat Unsure Calgary Edmonton Proper Proper UCP NDP ABP UND’D Rachel Notley - NDP (n=364) (n=291) (n=484) (n=353) (n=82)* (n=134) Approve 21% 23% 44% 45% 57% 11% 96% 43% 35% Disapprove 36% 15% 51% 49% 38% 88% 3% 51% 46% Unsure 6% 6% 5% 1% - 6% 19% Jason Kenney – United Conservative Party Approve 21% 22% 43% 42% 29% 90% 3% 24% 16% Disapprove 36% 9% 45% 45% 57% 4% 94% 64% 49% Unsure 12% 12% 13% 6% 3% 12% 35% David Khan - Liberals Approve 14% 15% 15% 18% 3% 27% 18% 14% Disapprove 25% 19% 44% 44% 38% 63% 34% 32% 28% Unsure 41% 41% 45% 34% 38% 50% 58% Stephen Mandel – Alberta Party Approve 21% 23% 17% 34% 19% 23% 75% 13% Disapprove 16% 22% 38% 37% 42% 41% 48% 6% 31% Unsure 38% 46% 24% 40% 29% 19% 56% 0% 25% 50% Significantly higher Significantly lower Base: All respondents | *Caution: Small sample size CONFIDENTIAL: Eye on Alberta – February 2019 Copyright © 2019 ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc. All rights reserved. www.thinkhq.com | 7 LEADER EVALUATIONS -BRIAN MASON, RACHEL NOTLEY Approve Disapprove Unsure 100% Notley becomes Provincial Election/ Party Leader Notley sworn in as Premier 75% 59% 59% 58% 58% 56% 58% 57% 57% 53% 53% 54% 55% 54% 50% 50% 50% 50% 51% 50% 51% 44% 43% 43% 44% 44% 38% 38% 39% 38% 39% 38% 40% 36% 37% 36%37% 36% 35%37% 37% 36% 35% 37% 35% 37% 33% 34% 32% 33% 34% 29% 30% 30% 31% 25% 26% 28% 26% 15% 12% 8% 9% 8% 8% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 6% 5% 5% 6% 7% 6% 6% 6% 0% June ‘13 Nov ‘13 Mar '14 Apr '14 Oct '14 Jan '15 June '15 Sept '15 Jan '16 Mar '16 May '16 July '16 Oct '16 Nov '16 Feb '17 May '17 June '17 Aug '17 Nov '17 Feb '18 Apr' 18 June '18 Sept '18 Nov '18 Feb '19 Base: All respondents CONFIDENTIAL: Eye on Alberta – February 2019 Copyright © 2019 ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc. All rights reserved. www.thinkhq.com | 8 LEADER EVALUATIONS: RACHEL NOTLEY -BY REGION AND GENDER % approve of Rachel Notley, LeaDer of NDP SigniFicantly higher SigniFicantly lower 100% Strongly approve Somewhat approve 75% 54% 50% 44% 43% 45% 26% 40% 40% 42% 23% 25% 32% 33% 23% 24% 20% 23% 25% 16% 14% 25% 28% 15% 22% 21% 19% 20% 19% 18% 16% 16% 10% 0% North South Rural Male Alberta Central Female Calgary CMA Small Urban Edmonton CMA TOTAL REGION GENDER Base: All respondents CONFIDENTIAL: Eye on Alberta – February 2019 Copyright © 2019 ThinkHQ Public AFFairs Inc. All rights reserved. www.thinkhq.com | 9 LEADER EVALUATIONS -JASON KENNEY Approve Disapprove Unsure 100% 75% 50% 47% 44% 46% 45% 45% 45% 43% 41% 41% 42% 42% 43% 43% 25% 14% 15% 13% 12% 11% 12% 12% 0% Nov '17 Feb '18 Apr' 18 June '18 Sept '18 Nov '18 Feb '19 Base: All respondents CONFIDENTIAL: Eye on Alberta – February 2019 Copyright © 2019 ThinkHQ Public AFFairs Inc. All rights reserved. www.thinkhq.com | 10 LEADER EVALUATIONS: JASON KENNEY -BY REGION AND GENDER % approve of Jason Kenney, Leader of the UCP SigniFicantly higher SigniFicantly lower 100% Strongly approve Somewhat approve 75% 60% 57% 55% 48% 29% 46% 21% 48% 50% 43% 44% 31% 38% 20% 24% 24% 22% 25% 32% 36% 21% 25% 18% 31% 26% 24% 24% 24% 21% 19% 17% 14% 0% North South Rural Male Alberta Central Female Calgary CMA Small Urban Edmonton CMA TOTAL REGION GENDER Base: All respondents CONFIDENTIAL: Eye on Alberta – February 2019 Copyright © 2019 ThinkHQ Public AFFairs Inc. All rights reserved. www.thinkhq.com | 11 LEADER EVALUATIONS -RAJ SHERMAN, DAVID SWANN, DAVID KHAN Approve Disapprove Unsure 100% Sherman resigns/Swann David Khan named Interim Leader elected Leader 75% Provincial Election 50% 51% 46% 44% 44% 42% 41% 42% 41% 41% 43% 41%42% 43% 42%43% 43% 41% 41% 40% 38% 39% 39% 39% 39% 39% 40% 40% 36% 37% 37% 36% 35% 37% 35% 36% 37% 37% 36% 36% 37% 33% 32% 34% 33% 30% 29% 30% 31% 28% 27% 28% 27% 27% 27% 26% 25% 23% 24% 24% 23% 23% 23% 20% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 15% 13% 15% 0% June ‘13 Nov ‘13 Mar '14 Apr '14 Oct '14 Jan '15 June '15 Sept '15 Jan '16 Mar '16 May '16 July '16 Oct '16 Nov '16 Feb '17 May '17 June '17 Aug '17 Nov '17 Feb '18 Apr '18 June '18 Sept '18 Nov '18 Feb '19 Base: All respondents CONFIDENTIAL: Eye on Alberta – February 2019 Copyright © 2019 ThinkHQ Public AFFairs Inc. All rights reserved. www.thinkhq.com | 12 LEADER EVALUATIONS: DAVID KHAN -BY REGION AND GENDER % approve of David Khan, Leader of the Liberal Party Significantly higher Significantly lower 100% Strongly approve Somewhat approve 75% 50% 25% 15% 15% 17% 15% 16% 15% 13% 12% 14% 16% 8% 14% 13% 15% 14% 13% 15% 13% 10% 0% 8% North South Rural Male Alberta Central Female Calgary CMA Small Urban Edmonton CMA TOTAL REGION GENDER Base: All respondents CONFIDENTIAL: Eye on Alberta – February 2019 Copyright © 2019 ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc. All rights reserved. www.thinkhq.com | 13 LEADER EVALUATIONS -GREG CLARK, STEPHEN MANDEL Approve Disapprove Unsure 100% Provincial Election Clark resigns Mandel elected Leader 75% 58% 52% 50% 50% 50% 50% 49% 50% 51% 49% 48% 48% 46% 41% 41% 41% 40% 38% 38% 40% 39% 38% 35% 37% 31% 29%30% 30% 26% 26% 27% 27% 28% 27% 27% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 24% 23% 24% 24%25% 24% 23% 23% 22% 22% 20% 17% 19% 0% April '15 June '15 Sept '15 Jan '16 Mar '16 May '16 July '16 Oct '16 Nov '16 Feb '17 May '17 June '17 Aug '17 Nov '17 Apr '18 June '18 Sept '18 Nov '18 Feb '19 Base: All respondents CONFIDENTIAL: Eye on Alberta – February 2019 Copyright © 2019 ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc.