Valves Business Report 2015 – 2018 2015 +++ Emissions scandal at VW +++ Mass panic in Mecca +++ Assassination attempt on the Cologne mayoral candidate Henriette Reker +++ 25 years of German reunification +++Change of government in Poland +++ Helmut Schmidt ✝ +++ Vladimir Klitschko loses title +++ Climate protection agreement in Paris +++ Kurt Masur ✝ +++ New Year‘s Eve with numerous sexual attacks on women in front of the main station in Cologne +++ Thousands of refugees stream into Germany +++ 2016 +++ David Bowie ✝ +++ Serious train accident in Bad Aibling in Upper Bavaria +++ Guido Westerwelle ✝ +++ IS suicide bombing attack at Brussels Airport +++ Political earthquake due to Böhmermann’s abusive poem about the Turkish head of state Erdogan +++ Hans-Dietrich Genscher ✝ +++ Götz George ✝ +++ Brexit decision in the UK +++ Portugal new European football champion +++ Terror attack on the beach promenade in Nice +++ Attempted coup in Turkey +++ Former Federal President of Germany Walter Scheel ✝ +++ Donald Trump elected 45th US President +++ Nico Rosberg Formula 1 world champion +++ Attack on the Berlin Christmas market +++ 2017 +++ Former Federal President of Germany Roman Herzog ✝ +++ Emmanuel Macron wins the presidential election in France +++ FC Bayern München German football champion for the 5th consecutive year +++ Former Chancellor Helmut Kohl ✝ +++ Tour de France starts in Düsseldorf +++ G20 summit in Hamburg overshadowed by serious riots +++ Roger Federer is the first tennis player to win Wimbledon eight times +++ Air Berlin becomes insolvent +++ Bundestag election in Germany +++ Mass murder of spectators at a country music concert in Las Vegas +++ 31-year old Sebastian Kurz becomes the youngest Federal Chancellor of Austria +++ 2018 +++ SPD leader Martin Schulz resigns +++ ‘Welt’ journalist Deniz Yücel is released without charge from a Turkish prison after a one year imprisonment +++ US-President Trump starts a trade war +++ Vladimir Putin is elected Russian President for the 4th time +++ Royal wedding of Prince Harry and Meghan Markle at Windsor Castle+++ Beate Zschäpe is sentenced to life imprisonment in the NSU-trial +++ Allez les Bleus! France wins the football world cup in Russia +++ Angelique Kerber wins Wimbledon +++ Valve production (mill. Euro) 10,000 8,746 8,764 8,906 8,847 9,130 9,133 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Federal Statistical Office Germany Valve production shares 2017 Parts for valves 8% Assembly & Repair 3% Building valves 49% Industrial valves 39% Source: VDMA Valves Building valves – most important export countries 2017 Export total 15,2 bn. Euro 24% China Germany 39% Italy India Japan Others 20% 4% 5% 8% Source: National Statistical Offices Industrial valves –most importantIndustrial valves export2017 countries Industrial valves – turnover development 1. qr. 2015-2. qr. 2018 2015-2.qr. 1.qr. development –turnover Industrial valves Building valves – turnover development 1. qr 2015-2. qr. 2018 1.qr2015-2.qr. development –turnover Building valves 38% 100 110 120 130 140 100 110 120 130 140 70 80 90 70 80 90 I.15 I.15 5% II.15 II.15 III.15 III.15 12% IV.15 IV.15 domestic domestic I.16 I.16 II.16 II.16 19% 12% III.16 III.16 abroad abroad IV.16 IV.16 16% Export total33,6bn.Euro I.17 I.17 total total II.17 II.17 Others Japan Italy Germany US China A III.17 III.17 Sources: Na Sources: IV.17 IV.17 I.18 I.18 Offices tional Statistical Source: Source: Source: Source: II.18 II.18 VDMA Valves VDMA VDMA Valves VDMA Valves Business2015 Report – 2018 2015 – 2018 Presented at the General Assembly 13/14 September 2018, Hamburg Insight. Perspective. Foresight. ContentContent 7 Foreword 9 Economic situation 13 Network • Committees • Collective research 16 Lobbying • Trade fairs • Technology • Europe 23 Advice, Service • Statistics • Markets 29 Public Relations 33 Association • No sooner said than done. • Who. What. • Where else. • Member companies 48 Appendix • Honorary chairmen of the association • Chairmen since 1947 • Board members since 1947 arm.vdma.org BUSINESS REPORT 5 We know a great deal, but we don’t know everything – because no one does. But we nearly always know whom to ask. Hartmut Tembrink Wolfgang Burchard Christine Lindenau Stefan Oberdörfer Dr. Sarah Brückner Isabella Treser 6 VALVES dankefreihandel.com BUSINESS REPORT 7 Foreword The last 3 years have been very eventful, and we would have preferred not to have experienced some of these events. Attacks all over the world, wars and the associated refugee streams, dictatorial developments and right-wing populist tendencies in countries that we cannot be indifferent to, are painful memories for us. Not to mention the Brexit decision which will keep us busy for a long time. Fortunately, the German valve industry not only largely remained unaffected from these tribulations but has continued to develop its business in a very pleasing way thanks to its high-quality products. In 2016 and 2017 the sector achieved record results with production values over 9 billion euros. It remains to be seen if this development continues. Then came Trump accompanied by Twitter, so-called alternative facts and fake news. Nobody is talking about ‘TTIP’ any more. Nevertheless, the Western world has not sunk as many had feared. Instead we are now talking about punitive customs duties for steel, aluminium, whisky, motor bikes and jeans. Free world trade does look different. Yet, it is not the time to disintegrate into the early stages of panic, as happened with TTIP. One day even the last Trump supporter will realise that this policy will only move in one direction: ‘America First makes America Last’. And the USA would not have deserved that. Be that as it may, the association's team will continue to serve your interests with dedication. Best regards, Wolfgang Burchard Managing Director 8 VALVES With a production value of over Euro 9 billion, the valve industry is among the top ten leading sectors in the mechanical engineering. Wolfgang Burchard BUSINESS REPORT 9 Economic situation Germany – a robust economy despite great Global economy – increased uncertainty uncertainties dampens growth The last 3 years have been characterised by a Following the slump in oil prices (2014/2015) constant and widespread economic recovery with the global economy gained a new impetus from a solid domestic economic basis. Capacities have mid-2016 and really got moving again. Private been well utilised, employment has climbed to consumption also proved to be a growth driver a record level and consumer prices have largely in 2017. A robust employment market, relatively remained stable. But uncertainty is growing. moderate inflation and favourable financial con- Even if more and more clouds are gathering in ditions enabled consumer spending to rise again. the skies above the German economy, this has But investments also gained momentum thanks not yet been noticed by German households. For to higher producer prices, full capacity utilisation the time being the employment market remains and company profits. Even the construction robust, more and more people have a job and sector fuelled by the low interest policy of the wages are going up. Private consumption remains central banks reached its limits. It is predicted a significant growth driver. The trade dispute that global economic growth in 2018 will be with the US, concerns about the Middle East and as dynamic as in the previous year. However, various Eurozone countries, primarily Italy, are the wave of protectionism (protective customs unsettling for companies and have already led to duties, import substitution) will have a damp- some investment restraint. This adversely affects ening effect. In 2018 momentum from the Far the German economy in two ways. On the one East will be lower than in 2017. China is focusing hand, German companies are investing less and on economic transformation and thereby on on the other hand German exports are suffering sustainable, stable growth, in other words, more from this because they consist to a large extent services instead of industry and more consump- of investment goods. tion instead of investments. In the developed economies it is primarily the good labour market Eurozone – political uncertainty is having a situation that is supporting consumption. detrimental impact on investments Over the last 3 years the gross domestic product In the US the hope for stimulus through tax of the Eurozone has grown continuously. How- decreases and spending programmes is having an ever, recently the expansion was more sluggish. impact. The labour market situation will continue Growth has slowed down mainly due to the to improve significantly. And due to increasing significant fall in exports. By contrast, private shortages in the labour market, wages will rise. consumption and investments has risen notice- The unpredictability of future trade policy under ably. Construction investments in particular President Trump increases investment risks. have increased significantly. Trade has hit its There is catch-up requirement in the housing capacity limit. The political uncertainties in the construction sector. Despite sharp price rises and Eurozone (Italy), the exit negotiations between mortgage interest rates at record lows, not much the European Union and the United Kingdom has been done in the construction sector. (Brexit) along with the rising global uncertainty, have curbed companies’ willingness to invest and Russia was hit particularly hard by the impacted the consumer confidence of private 2015/2016 recession. Decreasing real wages led households. The increase in global interest rates, to a steep downturn in private consumption. Eco- the skills shortage in the developed economies nomic sanctions between the West and Russia as and a persistent slowing down of growth in well as its strong dependence on the (sinking) oil China will further decelerate the economy. price pushed economic growth into the distant future. The strong influence of the state in the economy, little courage for economic reforms, the 10 VALVES uncertain legal conditions as well as corruption Turnover performed positively in 2017 in the weakened the interest of foreign investors.