Oxford-Cambridge Expressway Marsh Gibbon 15th July 2019, 7.30p.m. David Rogers & Olivia Field No Expressway Group Horton-cum-Studley [email protected] In the beginning………. Highways England talked about specific Expressway routes But from Spring of 2018 Highways Corridor A, the ‘Southern Route’ England talked only of three broad corridors, A, B and C. Stakeholders had very little influence on Corridor choice. Corridor B Corridor C, the ‘Northern Route’ Corridor AnnouncedCorridor A, the ‘Southern Route’ On September 12th last year Highways England announced a modified Corridor B for further study. Corridor B Corridor C, the ‘Northern Route’ Corridor B before September 12th Corridor B after September 12th Highways England’s Time Table Major Project Milestones & Lifecycle Options Phase Highways England’s Time Table Major Project Milestones & Lifecycle Options Phase Highways England’s Time Table Major Project Milestones & Lifecycle Options Phase Highways England’s Time Table Major Project Milestones & Lifecycle Options Phase Highways England’s Time Table Major Project Milestones & Lifecycle Options Phase Highways England’s Time Table Major Project Milestones & Lifecycle Options Phase Route B1 M40, Junction 9 Route B3 From the Corridor Assessment Report, Appendix G. Corridor B boundary Marsh Gibbon M40, Junction 8A Route B1 M40, Junction 9 Route B3 From the Corridor Assessment Report, Appendix G. Corridor B boundary Marsh Gibbon M40, Junction 8A Route B1 M40, Junction 9 Route B3 From the Corridor Assessment Report, Appendix G. Corridor B boundary Marsh Gibbon M40, NEW junction M40, Junction 8A Route B1 M40, Junction 9 Route B3 From the Corridor Assessment Report, Appendix G. Corridor B boundary Marsh Gibbon M40, NEW junction M40, Junction 8A Route B1 M40, Junction 9 Route B3 From the Corridor Assessment Report, Appendix G. MOD Land Corridor B boundary Marsh Gibbon M40, NEW junction M40, Junction 8A Route B1 M40, Junction 9 Route B3 MOD Land Corridor B boundary Marsh Gibbon M40, NEW junction M40, Junction 8A Route B1 M40, Junction 9 Route B3 MOD Land Corridor B boundary Marsh Gibbon M40, NEW junction M40, Junction 8A Route B1 M40, Junction 9 Route B3 MOD Land Corridor B boundary Marsh Gibbon M40, Junction 8A Route B1 M40, Junction 9 Route B3 MOD Land Corridor B boundary Marsh Gibbon M40, Junction 8A Route B1 M40, Junction 9 Route B3 MOD Land Corridor B boundary Marsh Gibbon M40, Junction 8A Route B1 M40, Junction 9 Route B3 MOD Land Corridor B boundary Marsh Gibbon M40, Junction 8A The expressway ‘foot-print’ will spread 4kms Route B1 M40, Junction 9 Route B3 MOD Land Corridor B boundary Marsh Gibbon M40, Junction 8A The expressway ‘foot-print’ will spread 4kms Expressway: alternative routes near Marsh Gibbon? BUCKINGHAM BLETCHLEY BICESTER Marsh Gibbon Expressway: alternative routes near Marsh Gibbon? BUCKINGHAM BLETCHLEY BICESTER Marsh Gibbon Expressway: alternative routes near Marsh Gibbon? and Houses? Even without the Expressway, Buckinghamshire is set to grow Buckinghamshire census 2011 Aylesbury Vale: 69,655 households (approx. houses) 174,137 people (2.5 pphh) (2011 ccensus) Milton Keynes: 99,528 households (approx. houses) 248,821 people (2.5 pphh) Buckinghamshire census 2011 Aylesbury Vale: 69,655 households (approx. houses) 174,137 people (2.5 pphh) (2011 ccensus) Milton Keynes: 99,528 households (approx. houses) 248,821 people (2.5 pphh) Buckinghamshire census 2011 Aylesbury Vale: 69,655 households (approx. houses) 174,137 people (2.5 pphh) (2011 ccensus) Milton Keynes: 99,528 households (approx. houses) 248,821 people (2.5 pphh) i.e. approx 38% growth in Aylesbury Vale 2013 - 2033 (MK planned growth 27% 2011-2026) (ONS projected growth for England is 16% by 2050) Houses across the ‘Arc’ The Ox-Cam Arc’s ‘Transformational Scenario’ Houses across the ‘Arc’ The Ox-Cam Arc’s ‘Transformational Scenario’ Houses across the ‘Arc’ The Ox-Cam Arc’s ‘Transformational Scenario’ Houses across the ‘Arc’ The Ox-Cam Arc’s ‘Transformational Scenario’ CurrentlyCurrently planned planned + backloghomes homes Houses across the ‘Arc’ The Ox-Cam Arc’s ‘Transformational Scenario’ CurrentlyCurrently planned planned + backloghomes homes Additional Ox-Cam ‘Arc’ homes Houses across the ‘Arc’ The Ox-Cam Arc’s ‘Transformational Scenario’ CurrentlyCurrently planned planned + backloghomes homes Additional Ox-Cam ‘Arc’ homes Houses across the ‘Arc’ Bucks’ proportionate share of 170,000 expressway houses would be 82,000 The Ox-Cam Arc’s ‘Transformational Scenario’ CurrentlyCurrently planned planned + backloghomes homes Additional Ox-Cam ‘Arc’ homes Houses across the ‘Arc’ Bucks’ proportionate share of 170,000 expressway houses would be 82,000 So, even with no more Local Plan growth, Bucks will grow by 87% by 2050 (national average 16% by 2050) ..how many new homes along the Expressway itself? ..howOption many B1, 82,000 new workers/65,000homes along the new Expressway houses nr. Bicester itself? ..howOption many B1, 82,000 new workers/65,000homes along the new Expressway houses nr. Bicester itself? That’s 150,440 people (Oxford City has 154,600 2017 figure ) ..howOption many B1, 82,000 new workers/65,000homes along the new Expressway houses nr. Bicester itself? 4km radius That’s 150,440 people (Oxford City has 154,600 2017 figure ) ……… and near Marsh Gibbon…..36,200 houses Marsh Gibbon ……… and near Marsh Gibbon…..36,200 houses Marsh Gibbon Marsh Gibbon ……… and near Marsh Gibbon…..36,200 houses Marsh Gibbon Marsh Gibbon That’s 84,400 people (Bicester has 32,789 2017 figure ) ……… and near Marsh Gibbon…..36,200 houses Marsh Gibbon 4km radius Marsh Gibbon That’s 84,400 people (Bicester has 32,789 2017 figure ) …….and the same again ‘East of Oakley’… 65,000 houses Marsh Gibbon …….and the same again ‘East of Oakley’… 65,000 houses Marsh Gibbon …….and the same again ‘East of Oakley’… 65,000 houses Marsh Gibbon That’s 150,000 people (Oxford City has 154,600 2017 figure ) Along route B3 in Buckinghamshire, the Expressway will support up to 100,787 houses (235,000 people). Along route B3 in Buckinghamshire, the Expressway will support up to 100,787 houses (235,000 people). The NIC Report (5th Studio SQW) says there will be 82,000 new houses in Aylesbury Vale + MK (the ‘transformational growth’ figure). Along route B3 in Buckinghamshire, the Expressway will support up to 100,787 houses (235,000 people). The NIC Report (5th Studio SQW) says there will be 82,000 new houses in Aylesbury Vale + MK (the ‘transformational growth’ figure). Therefore all the aspirational growth associated with the expressway in AVDC and MK could be accommodated near expressway junctions. An example: Oxfordshire’s past, and proposed growth to 2050 Oxfordshire's total population since the Domesday Book 1086 1,400,000 2050 target, 1,200,000 560,000 houses, 1.3 million people 1,000,000 Last census, 2011. c. 260,000 houses, Growth target to 2050, including 800,000 650,000 people expressway housing (total = 300,000 new houses) 600,000 Oxfordshire's population since Domesday Book Total populationpopulation Total Total Total population Total 400,000 Domesday,Domesday, 1086. 6713200,000 houses, 27,000 people 0 900 1100 1300 1500 1700 1900 2100 Year, AD An example: Oxfordshire’s past, and proposed growth to 2050 Oxfordshire's total population since the Domesday Book 1086 1,400,000 2050 target, 1,200,000 560,000 houses, 1.3 million people 1,000,000 Last census, 2011. c. 260,000 houses, Growth target to 2050, including 800,000 650,000 people expressway housing (total = 300,000 new houses) 600,000 Oxfordshire's population since Domesday Book Total population Total Total population Total 400,000 Domesday, 1086. 6713200,000 houses, 27,000 people 0 900 1100 1300 1500 1700 1900 2100 Year, AD An example: Oxfordshire’s past, and proposed growth to 2050 Oxfordshire's total population since the Domesday Book 1086 1,400,000 2050 target, 1,200,000 560,000 houses, 1.3 million people 1,000,000 Last census, 2011. c. 260,000 houses, Growth target to 2050, including 800,000 650,000 people expressway housing (total = 300,000 new houses) 600,000 Oxfordshire's population since Domesday Book Total population Total 400,000 Domesday, 1086. 6713200,000 houses, 27,000 people 0 900 1100 1300 1500 1700 1900 2100 Year, AD An example: Oxfordshire’s past, and proposed growth to 2050 Oxfordshire's total population since the Domesday Book 1086 1,400,000 All Local Plans to mid 2030s 2050 target, 380,000 houses, 1,200,000 560,000 houses, 900,000 people 1.3 million people 1,000,000 Last census, 2011. c. 260,000 houses, Growth target to 2050, including 800,000 650,000 people expressway housing (total = 300,000 new houses) 600,000 Oxfordshire's population since Domesday Book Total population Total 400,000 Domesday, 1086. 6713200,000 houses, 27,000 people 0 900 1100 1300 1500 1700 1900 2100 Year, AD An example: Oxfordshire’s past, and proposed growth to 2050 Oxfordshire's total population since the Domesday Book 1086 1,400,000 All Local Plans to mid 2030s 2050 target, 380,000 houses, 1,200,000 560,000 houses, 900,000 people 1.3 million people 1,000,000 Last census, 2011. c. 260,000 houses, Growth target to 2050, including 800,000 650,000 people expressway housing (total = 300,000 new houses) 600,000 Oxfordshire's population since Domesday Book Total population Total 400,000 Domesday, 1086. 6713200,000 houses, 27,000 people 0 900 1100 1300 1500 1700 1900 2100 Year, AD Are there really no limits to growth? All along the ‘Arc’, the story is the same Highways England proposes 360,000 new houses along the Expressway Cambridge Oxford Cars, Houses, People……. and Freight TENtec Freight Network BELFAST HELSINKI SEVILLE ATHENS = North Sea – Mediterranean TENtec Trans European Transport Network = Other Core Network Cars, Houses, People…….