2. Piedmont Triad Overview Executive Summary/Key Points This chapter provides context for the 2040 MTP, including o An overview of the geography, demographics and economic characteristics of the region and the MPO; o A summary of local and regional land use planning efforts; o Methodology on the socioeconomic forecast and the regional travel demand model; and o Recommendations related to land use and transportation coordination; regional cooperation and coordination; and the regional travel demand model. MPOs in the Triad region are projected to grow by approximately 130,000 households and almost 200,000 jobs by 2040. Growth in the Winston-Salem MPO is expected to account for a significant portion of this, with an increase of over 45,000 household and over 63,000 jobs by 2040. Expanded housing and transportation choices will be needed to meet changing demand and demographics. By having a regional transportation organization and one regional council now in place, the Triad is positioned for cooperative planning and successful regional land use and transportation initiatives. Map and Table References Maps Map 2-1 Piedmont Triad Region—Location Map 2-2 Piedmont Triad Region—Geography Map 2-3 Piedmont Triad Region—Major Roadways Map 2-4 Piedmont Triad Metropolitan Planning Organizations Map 2-5 Winston-Salem Urban Area Metropolitan Area Boundary Map 2-6 Winston-Salem MPO Household Density by TAZ 2013 and 2040 Map 2-7 Winston-Salem MPO Employment Density by TAZ 2013 and 2040 Tables Table 2.1 Economic Characteristics of Forsyth County, the Region and North Carolina Table 2.2 Winston-Salem MPO Population, Households and Employment 2.1 Geographic Area The Piedmont Triad is a geographically diverse 12-county region located in central North Carolina along the 1-40/I-85 corridor between Raleigh and Charlotte. In addition to being located centrally in North Carolina, the Piedmont Triad has a central East Coast location, midway between New York and Miami; Washington, D.C. and Atlanta, and within 650 miles of more than half the U.S. population and major markets. See Map 2-1 Piedmont Triad Region—Location, Map 2-2 Piedmont Triad Region— Geography, and Map 2-3 Piedmont Triad Region—Major Roadways. While most people in the Piedmont Triad Region live in urban areas, most of the land area is considered rural. According to US Census definitions, 2/3rds of the population of the 12-county region lived in urbanized areas or urbanized clusters in 2010. In contrast, however, 57% of the land area is rural (defined as less than 100 people per square mile) and an additional 29% of the land area is rural transition (defined as less than 250 people per square mile.) Winston-Salem Urban Area MPO 2040 Metropolitan Transportation Plan Piedmont Triad Overview - Page 1 Map 2-1 Piedmont Triad Region - Location MARYLAND WEST VIRGINIA Richmond KENTUCKY Lynchburg Roanoke Newport VIRGINIA News Hampton Portsmouth Norfolk Suffolk Virginia Beach Chesapeake Kingsport Johnson City TENNESSEE Winston-Salem Knoxville Greensboro Rocky Chapel Durham Mount Burlington Hill High Raleigh Point Cary Asheville Greenville NORTH Concord CAROLINA Gastonia Charlotte Fayetteville Rock Hill Greenville Jacksonville Atlantic Ocean Wilmington Roswell Alpharetta Johns Creek Athens Columbia Sandy Springs Smyrna SOUTH Atlanta CAROLINA GEORGIA Augusta North Macon Charleston Mount Pleasant Warner Charleston Robins 0 12.5 25 50 Miles Map 2-2 Piedmont Triad Region - Geography Hyco Milton Mount Lake Airy Eden D Stoneville SURRY AN R IVE Danbury R Mayodan Dobson Pilot Yanceyville STOKES Wentworth Mountain Madison CASWELL ROCKINGHAM Belews Lake Reidsville Walnut King Cove River Elkin Rural Haw Jonesville Boonville Hall Stokesdale East Bend Tobaccoville Bethania Oak Summerfield YADKIN Walkertown Ridge Ossipee Yadkinville Green FORSYTH Kernersville Lewisville Elon Level Winston-Salem Greensboro Burlington Mebane Whitsett GUILFORD Graham Clemmons Wallburg Alamance Swepsonville Bermuda Jamestown H Run k a Midway e D w re High e Pleasant C e Garden R Point p iv DAVIE s R tt ALAMANCE e r r Mocksville o Archdale iv e b e v r i b Trinity R A Thomasville Liberty in dk DAVIDSON Cooleemee Ya Randleman Lexington Staley RANDOLPH Franklinville Ramseur High Asheboro Lake Rock Norman Lake Denton r r Badin e e Seagrove v v i Lake i R R p e e i e r r D a h w U Star Troy Biscoe MONTGOMERY Candor Mount " Gilead 0 3.75 7.5 15 Miles Copyright:© 2014 Esri Counties in the Piedmont Triad Region are: Surry, Stokes, Rockingham, Yadkin, Forsyth, Guilford, Alamance, Davie, Davidson, Caswell, Randolph, and Montgomery. The major cities in the Triad are: Winston-Salem, Greensboro and High Point. The Triad includes four Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs), Winston- Salem Urban Area, Greensboro Urban Area, High Point Urban Area and Burlington-Graham and two Rural Planning Organizations (RPOs), Northwest Piedmont and Piedmont Triad. See Map 2-4, Piedmont Triad Metropolitan Planning Organizations. Map 2-3 The Winston-Salem Urban Area Piedmont Triad Region— MPO is in the northwestern part of Major Roadways the Piedmont Triad and includes most of Forsyth County, along with southwestern Stokes County, northeastern Davie County, and northern Davidson County. Winston-Salem is by far the largest city in the Urban Area. Other municipalities in the Winston-Salem Urban Area are (in order of population): Kernersville, Clemmons, Lewisville, King, Midway, Walkertown, Rural Hall, Tobaccoville, Bermuda Run, Wallburg, and Bethania. In September 2012, the Transportation Advisory Committee (TAC) of the Winston-Salem Urban Area MPO adopted a new Metropolitan Area Boundary (MAB) based on the Census Bureau’s 2010 defined urbanized area and negotiations with jurisdictions and MPOs in the region. The Winston-Salem MPO began planning for the new MAB after adoption of the 2035 Long Range Transportation Plan in January 2013, so this is the first long range plan covering the expanded MAB. The new Winston-Salem Urban Area MAB is shown on Map 2-5. 2.2 Demographics The 12-county Piedmont Triad Region had a population of 1,647,293 in 2010 (per the US Census), a 12% increase from 2000. According to the State Budget Office, the population of the Piedmont Triad is expected to growth to almost 1.9 million by 2035. Ninety percent of the growth is projected to be in the urban counties of Forsyth, Guilford and Alamance. The primary metropolitan centers of the region are Greensboro, Winston-Salem and High Point. Together, these cities ranked as the 33rd largest Combined Statistical Area (CSA) in US in 2013. The Winston-Salem Urban Area MPO had an estimated population of 414,092 in 2013. Based on 2010 census population figures, the Winston-Salem MPO was the third most populous MPO in North Carolina, following the Mecklenberg-Union MPO (Charlotte) and the Capital Area MPO (Raleigh). As of the 2010 Census, Forsyth County was the fourth most populous county and Winston-Salem was the fourth most populous city in North Carolina. Population, household and employment estimates and projections for the Winston-Salem Urban Area are included in section 2.5, Socioeconomic Forecast, below. Winston-Salem Urban Area MPO 2040 Metropolitan Transportation Plan Piedmont Triad Overview - Page 4 Map 2-4 Piedmont Triad Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs) Mount Milton Airy Eden Stoneville SURRY Danbury Mayodan Wentworth Yanceyville Dobson Pilot ROCKINGHAM Mountain STOKES Madison CASWELL High Kerr-Tar RPO Country Northwest Reidsville RPO Piedmont Walnut Cove Elkin RPO King Rural Jonesville Boonville Hall East Stokesdale Bend Tobaccoville Bethania Walkertown Oak Summerfield Greensboro YADKIN Ossipee FORSYTH Ridge Urban Yadkinville Winston-Salem Green Kernersville Area MPO Gibsonville Level Urban Area MPO Greensboro Lewisville Sedalia Burlington-Graham Winston-Salem Whitsett Mebane GUILFORD MPO Clemmons Graham Wallburg Alamance Bermuda Swepsonville Durham Run Jamestown ALAMANCE Chapel Hill Midway Unifour High Pleasant Carrboro MPO RPO DAVIE Point Garden Mocksville Archdale Thomasville Trinity High Point Liberty Cooleemee Urban Randleman Lexington Area MPO Staley Asheboro DAVIDSON Franklinville Greater Ramseur Hickory RANDOLPH Capital MPO Piedmont Area MPO Denton Triad RPO Cabarrus Triangle Seagrove Rowan MPO Area RPO Gaston-Cleveland-Lincoln Star Troy Mid-Carolina MPO Biscoe RPO Rocky MONTGOMERY River RPO Candor Charlotte Regional Mount Fayetteville Transportation Gilead Area MPO Planning Organization 0 5 10 20 Miles Lumber River RPO Map 2-5 Winston-Salem Urban Area Metropolitan Planning Organization (WSMPO) Dobson Pilot Mayodan Mountain Madison 0 1 2 4 Miles Piedmont Triad RPO SURRY STOKES ROCKINGHAM Walnut Cove King Boonville Tobaccoville Rural Stokesdale East Hall Northwest Bend Piedmont RPO Summerfield Bethania Oak YADKIN Ridge Greensboro Walkertown Urban Area MPO Yadkinville FORSYTH Kernersville Lewisville Winston-Salem GUILFORD Winston-Salem Greensboro Urban Area MPO Clemmons Unifour RPO Wallburg Bermuda Run High Point Jamestown Midway High Point DAVIE DAVIDSON Urban Area MPO Charlotte Mocksville Archdale Regional Thomasville RANDOLPH TPO Trinity 2.3 Economic Characteristics The Piedmont Triad Region has a generally strong economic climate, compared to many other areas of the United States. Major industries include manufacturing, services, health care, logistics and distribution, and financial services. The region is home to eleven four-year colleges and universities and nine community colleges. The region’s central North Carolina and East Coast location, moderate climate,