District Ward Boundary Review Richmondshire District Council Stage One - Council Size Submission to the Local Government Boundary Commission for England (April 2017) 1 Introduction The Local Government Boundary Commission for England (LGBCE) is an independent body that is responsible for conducting boundary and electoral reviews of principal authorities in England. Richmondshire District Council does not currently meet the criteria for electoral inequality ie. 30% of wards having a variance greater than +/- 10% of the average electorate per Member, however this threshold is likely to be reached in the very near future. As a result the Council decided in July 2016 to request the LGBCE to undertake an electoral review. This request was accepted and the review was included in their programme. The electoral review will examine whether the boundaries of wards within the local authority area need to be altered to ensure fair representation at the local government elections. In Richmondshire it has been identified that six of the twenty four wards have imbalances. The table below sets out the current imbalances in the District. No (%) Number of wards (>10%) 5 Number of wards (>20%) 0 Number of wards (>30%) 1 The Wards with the above variances are: (%) Brompton-on-Swale & Scorton 11% Hipswell 12% Hornby Castle 29% Middleton Tyas -14% Scotton -12% Swaledale -11% The main reasons for the electoral inequality arises from new housing developments, under registration of service personnel and population changes, the detail of which will be explained in the following sections. North Yorkshire County Council is not within the LGBCE programme for review and the County Council have indicated they will not be requesting a review of the County Divisions. As such, best practice dictates that any review of district wards must fit within existing County Divisions. This submission document is, essentially, the first of two parts to the 2019 Boundary Review. As required by the process put in place by the Local Government Boundary Commission for England, this first submission document is in respect of proposals for the size of the Council. A second document in respect of proposals on ward numbers, boundaries and names, will be submitted in due course and in accordance with the timetable set out by the Commission. Following submission of the second document, 2 consultation will take place on the LGBCE draft recommendations on which the Council will make comments. In considering Council size the Commission considers the following four parts: 1. Governance and decision making – what is the right number of councillors to take decisions and manage the business in an effective way? 2. Scrutiny functions – what is the right number of councillors to administer Richmondshire’s scrutiny responsibilities in a convenient and effective way? 3. Representational role of councillors – what is the right number of councillors to represent and provide leadership to local communities in Richmondshire? 4. The future – what governance changes are being considered and how to these impact on the number of councillors needed in the future? The review will only be considering the size of the Council and internal ward boundaries. It specially excludes all forms of outer boundaries (District and parliamentary). It will also not deal with community governance reviews (parish boundary reviews) – of which there are none currently being undertaken in Richmondshire. Richmondshire Profile Richmondshire District is in the north west of North Yorkshire It is predominately rural with a total area of 1,319km2 (509 miles2) making it one of the geographically largest districts in the country. Three fifths of the District lies within the Yorkshire Dales National Park. The District borders County Durham and the Tees Valley to the north, Cumbria to the west and the Districts of Craven, Harrogate and Hambleton to the south and east. It rises from the Vale of Mowbray lowlands in the east, through the Pennine fringe into Swaledale and Wensleydale in the northern Yorkshire Dales. As shown in Figure 1 below. Figure 1: Richmondshire in context The geography of the dales makes for strong east west links and defines a clear settlement pattern. The town of Richmond and the parishes of Colburn, Hipswell, and Scotton including Catterick Garrison (main military site) forms the District centre in the east. Leyburn and 3 Hawes provide important services and employment opportunities in the more sparsely populated west. A large number of smaller settlements are linked to each of these service centres, with connections following the distinctive landscape. Population The latest 2015 mid-year population estimate (MYE) for Richmondshire is 52,520, an 11.6% increase since 2001. This rate of growth is higher than the County (5.6%) and England (10.8%). Two thirds of this population live in the seven largest settlements, with estimated populations of Hipswell, Scotton and Colburn (including Catterick Garrison) 16,180, Richmond 8,410, Catterick Village (including Marne Barracks) 3,155, Leyburn 2,550 and Brompton on Swale 1,880. Just 12% of the population lives in the National Park, making this one of the sparsest districts in England with a population density of approximately 40 people/km2 (103 people/mile2). Richmondshire is home to a large number of military personnel and their dependents at the Catterick Garrison main site and Marne Barracks at Catterick Village. At around 10,500, the military population forms about a fifth of the District’s total population. This confers a very distinctive population profile on the district, which skews the younger age and gender structure of the population. Unlike the demographic changes of the local population, it changes by national defence policy and the passage of personnel through their military careers. This means that the age and gender structure of military personnel and their dependents population remains more or less constant over time. Figure 2 below, shows the ageing of the population between 2001 and 2011 Censuses. It also shows the growth of the military age groups in this time too. Despite the presence of a large military population, the population age structure tends to be older than regional and national profiles. The retirement age population accounts for 17.5% of the District total, but this simple proportion will be affected by the military population. The age profile is expected to continue to be age driven by the large ‘baby boom’ generation. Figure 2: Richmondshire Population Ageing 2001 - 2011 The military presence in Richmondshire causes major problems for population estimation and projection. Migration rates caused by institutional military movements of personnel and dependents and births to military families cannot be easily separated from normal 4 demographic change. For example, the overall increase in population from 2001 to 2015 is largely a result of military change. The latest ONS Mid 2014 based population projections indicate a decline in the local population by 1,319 over the 25-year projection period (2014–2039), a reduction of -2.5%. This projection includes the maintenance of a static armed forces population of approximately 6,000 personnel. This particular projection is contrary to all preceding projections and all North Yorkshire Districts. The reason for this is that military moves in support of the Army Basing Plan between 2012/13 and 2016/17 have seen large numbers of personnel and dependents leave the Garrison and then replaced with new units. The migration assumptions of the mid 2014 projections build the military outmigration into its projections, effectively replicating this short term change over the whole plan period. Local population projections (Edge Analytics December 2016) revise the mid 2014 SNPP assumptions to address the changes caused by the migration of military families. This revised projection suggests that the local population will grow modestly at an average rate of 210 people or 90 households per year, if its assumptions are fulfilled. There is a marked difference between the areas inside and outside of the National Park. The population in the National Park is projected to decrease because of its older population. The MOD recently announced that it anticipates a further 5,000 military personnel including their dependents will be located to Catterick Garrison by 2021. These numbers have not been factored in to the population estimates for the District or for specific wards. The Council and MOD are having initial discussions to decide where and how the personnel and their dependents will be accommodated. Housing There are about 23,450 (2016) dwellings in the plan area, of which just over 85% are owner occupied or privately rented, which is higher than regional and national levels. The mix of tenures in the plan area includes nearly 1,750 military homes or 10% of total dwelling stock. There is a much lower proportion of social rented housing (11%) compared to regional and national levels. The vacancy rate, including holiday homes and second homes, is 7.7%. This falls to 2.1% when only market properties are included (Empty and Underused Property Research, 2009). Table 1 summarises current and expected housing development under the Council’s adopted Local Plan 2012 – 2028 Core Strategy. Nearly two-thirds of development (1,900 homes) is directed towards the Wards of Hipswell, Scotton and Colburn, where large sites are available. Remaining development is expected to take place in proportion to settlement size, apart