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An Exploration of the Security Dilemma in the Middle East: The Impact of the Transformative Power of Iran’s Foreign Policy ABDULLAH S F AL-MARZOUQ A thesis submitted in accordance with the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Keele University School of Politics, International Relations and Philosophy October 2016 In the Name of Allah, the Magnificent, the Merciful DEDICATION To those who taught me the true meaning of love, patience and sacrifice: My parents; Sultan and Ruqayyah (of blessed memory) with deepest gratitude and eternal love to all my teachers, colleagues and friends throughout this journey of knowledge also dedicated to anyone interested in the subject. ii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The thesis is the result of several years of hard and intensive work on examining foreign policy, regional and global security systems. First and foremost, I would like to express my gratitude and sincere thanks to my supervisor Professor Bulent Gokay, for his heartfelt encouragement, thoughtful guidance and unstinting support during the course of my studies at Keele University. I am very fortunate to have been given the opportunity to study under such a brilliant scholar who has made an unforgettable imprint on my academic development. I would like to give special thanks to my supervisor Professor Christopher Bailey, for his invaluable help, mainly in my darkest times, besides his advice and encouragement in developing ideas, for his great and precise attention to detail and for sharing his expertise and in-depth knowledge. My deepest appreciation is extended to the Director of the PhD, Doctor Elisabeth Carter for her wisdom and patience. She helped me to overcome many obstacles along the way, on my PhD journey. Without her persistent support, this thesis may never have been completed on time, nor would I have survived it. I also give heartfelt thanks and appreciation to Staff Major General Farhan and Staff Air Major General Pilot, Khamis, for their continued tireless support in providing me with every possible help in my mission and encouragement for accomplishing my ultimate target, irrespective of difficulties and hardship. During my studies, they provided me with advice, while their experience, time and effort enabled me to overcome several obstacles. There are no words to convey my sincere gratitude for the guidance and encouragement that has brought this thesis to fruition. I wish to extend special thanks and deep gratitude to Dr. Lily Hamourtziadou, for proofreading my thesis, which has been memorable. Dr. Lily also has patiently supported me throughout the darkest stage of this thesis and given me iii space to develop new ideas and to transform my experiences into a thesis. I thank her from the bottom of my heart. I also give my thanks and appreciation to my colleagues Mohammed AL-Enzi and Alkistis Ntai for their friendship, kindness and assistance during my studies. They are now like family to me and I will never forget our long and interesting discussions on various academic issues that expanded our way of thinking and reshaped the path of our knowledge. I am truly indebted to them for all their efforts to make this thesis better in every way. I am particularly indebted to my colleague Dina Saduova. We shared an office and we also shared all the ups and downs of the research process. During the long hours spent in our many academic discussions, Dina not only encouraged me and gave insightful guidance, but kept asking me to pull myself together to confront all challenges and obstacles. Her strong confidence in me walked me through the darkest time of my Ph.D. I am grateful for her time, interest and unlimited kindness. My sincere thanks also goes to my best friend Mr. Mark J. Sparks for his advice, suggestions, assistance and kindness over the years. I am grateful to my respectful and loving family, to whom this thesis is dedicated. I dedicate this work to all members of my family, especially to my brother Majed who encouraged and supported me fully over the years. Above all, I would like to thank deeply my God who made all this possible. iv ABSTRACT This is a multidisciplinary research project that aims to explore the geopolitical dynamics, in parallel with recent developments in the Middle East, in the period 2003-2013 and beyond, to some extent. The most effective developments can be found in the shifting power relations, alongside regional and international rivalries, that led to instability, security threats and patterns of violence. With these dynamics in mind and power shifts post-2003, interactions between soft power (ideological proxies) vs military power played a crucial role in shaping the political and security landscape of the region. The thesis explores three sides of the security triangle. The first corresponds to Iran's foreign policy, as case study, which is one of the focal actors that used ideology as basis for action. The second is the presence of the US and its allies, particularly its regional allies. The third is the Middle East region as a reference point for examining power structures in light of rivalry relationships, which in turn interconnects some regional key players in the security paradigm. The objective of this thesis is to broaden the concept of security studies in the field of international relations. The thesis endeavours to incorporate non-state actor violence, sponsored by some nation-states, in this case Iran, as part of a regional strategic agenda. From this vantage point, defensive and offensive approaches will be discussed, in line with Iran's foreign policy, in order to demonstrate how Iran resists regional threats to ensure its survival, and reinforces its influence to maximise its power. v Map 1.1. The Middle East Region 1. Syria 2. Lebanon 3. Jordan 4. Iraq 5. Kuwait 6. Saudi Arabia 7. Bahrain 8. Qatar 9. UAE 10. Oman 11. Yemen 12. Egypt 13. Israel 14. Turkey 15. Iran www.dolananreadbudwae.blogspot.com vi Diagram 1 Triangulation: Mutual Perception among Iran, U.S. and the Arab World Iran A Strategic Partnershi p U.S. Most Arabs A Strategic Partnership vii Diagram 2 The Core of the Argument for the Thesis X Y Z Iran's Nuclear Activities and Regime Identity Shiite Paramilitary Activities Iranian Policy in Development of Ballistic Al-Mahdi Army Iraq of 2003 Missile Systems Lebanese Hezbollah Iranian Support to Hezbollah Nationalism Decision Makers Non-State Actors Pragmatism SECURITY Geopolitical Iran’ Foreign Impact of DILEMMA SECURITY Dynamics Ideological Proxies Policy Soft Power DILEMMA Ideologies Asymmetric Warfare Pan-Islamism Revolutionary Regional Aspirations Iranian Policy Shiism towards the Strategic Rivalry for Leadership Shiite Factions Communities of Gulf States Expand Geopolitical Regional Power Structure Hamas Iran’s Anti-Israel Influence Palestinian Islamic Jihad Policy Increase Regional Anarchy viii Keywords: - ‗X‘ (Independent Variable) - the distribution of soft power, including Iran‘s use of ideological proxies. - ‗Y‘ (Dependent Variable) - Iran‘s foreign policy outcome. - ‗Z‘ (Intervening Variables) - and of domestic factors, including regime identity, nationalism and decision makers. viii Table of Contents Dedication ii Acknowledgments iii Abstract v Map of the Middle East Region vi Diagram 1 vii Diagram 2 viii Table of Contents ix Chapter 1. Introduction and Overview 1 1.1. General Introduction 1 1.2. Background to the Study 3 1.3. Outline of Research Problem 4 1.4. Research Questions 5 1.5. Scope and Objectives of Research Project 6 1.6. Significance of the Thesis and its Contribution 8 1.7. Literature Review 9 1.8. Theoretical Framework 23 1.8.1. The Security Dilemma 25 1.8.2. Neoclassical Realism 32 1.8.3. Constructivism 34 1.8.4. Offensive Realism 38 1.8.5. Speech Acts 40 1.9. Research Design 43 1.10. Research Methods 43 1.11. Organization and Structure of the Thesis 51 Chapter 2. Developing the Analytical Framework 53 2.1. Introduction 53 2.2. Building the Analytical Framework 54 2.3. Islamic Perspective and International Relations Theory 54 2.4. The Islamic Political Thought in the view of Iranian Shiite School 57 2.5. The Political Thought of Ayatollah Khomeini 59 2.6. Some Essential Epistemological Aspects of Shiite school 62 2.6.1. Shiite Islam of the Twelver School of Thought 63 2.6.2. Al-Mahdi Al-Montazar (the Awaited) 65 2.6.3. The Theory of the Governance of Jurist (Wilayat Al-Faqih) 66 2.7. A new Revolutionary Paradigm and the Path to Reach Power 69 2.8. Regional Instability and the New Security Dilemma 71 2.9. Conclusion 73 Chapter 3. Internal Structure of Iran's Political System: Key Drivers for Foreign Policy 75 3.1. Introduction 75 3.2. The Pattern of Interactions between Power and Policy: A Theoretical Approach 76 3.2.1. Power Structures of Political System of Iran 84 ix 3.2.2. Domestic Political Factors and the Dynamics of Iran's Foreign Policy 87 3.3. The Extended Arms of the Supreme Leader 92 3.4. The three Intervening Variables 94 3.4.1. A Regime Identity 94 3.4.2. Nationalism 97 3.4.3. Decision Makers 99 3.5. Three Substantial Drivers are being in Line with Instruments of Soft Power 103 3.5.1.