Prevalence of heavy fuel oil and black carbon in Arctic shipping, 2015 to 2025 BRYAN COMER, NAYA OLMER, XIAOLI MAO, BISWAJOY ROY, DAN RUTHERFORD MAY 2017 www.theicct.org [email protected] BEIJING | BERLIN | BRUSSELS | SAN FRANCISCO | WASHINGTON ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The authors thank James J. Winebrake for his critical review and advice, along with our colleagues Joe Schultz, Jen Fela, and Fanta Kamakaté for their review and support. The authors would like to acknowledge exactEarth for providing satellite Automatic Identification System data and for data processing support. The authors sincerely thank the ClimateWorks Foundation for funding this study. For additional information: International Council on Clean Transportation 1225 I Street NW, Suite 900, Washington DC 20005 [email protected] | www.theicct.org | @TheICCT © 2017 International Council on Clean Transportation TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary ................................................................................................................. iv 1. Introduction and Background ............................................................................................1 1.1 Heavy fuel oil ................................................................................................................................... 2 1.2 Black carbon .................................................................................................................................... 3 1.3 Policy context ..................................................................................................................................4 2. Methodology ........................................................................................................................6 2.1 Arctic definitions ............................................................................................................................ 6 2.2 Emissions inventory ...................................................................................................................... 7 2.3 Estimating 2015 vessel emissions...........................................................................................12 2.4 Estimating 2015 fuel consumption.........................................................................................15 2.5 Estimating 2015 fuel carriage ..................................................................................................15 2.6 Projecting emissions, fuel consumption, and fuel carriage from 2015 to 2020 and 2025 ........................................................................................................................16 3. Results ................................................................................................................................. 19 3.1 Fleet characteristics.....................................................................................................................19 3.2 HFO use............................................................................................................................................22 3.3 HFO carriage and transport ....................................................................................................23 3.4 Black carbon emissions .............................................................................................................25 3.5 Fuel use, fuel carriage, and emissions by flag state ......................................................27 3.6 Projections of fuel use, fuel carriage, and emissions in 2020 and 2025 ................31 4. Comparison to other studies ...........................................................................................36 5. Future work .........................................................................................................................38 6. Policy Alternatives ........................................................................................................... 40 6.1 Alternative 1 – Establish an Arctic Emission Control Area .........................................40 6.2 Alternative 2 – Prohibit the use of HFO in the Arctic (no limitation on carriage) ... 40 6.3 Alternative 3 – Prohibit the use and carriage of HFO in the Arctic ........................40 6.4 Alternative 4 – Prohibit the use of any petroleum-based fuel oil in the Arctic .40 6.5 Alternative 5 – Limit BC emissions from ships ..................................................................41 6.6 Summary ..........................................................................................................................................41 7. Conclusions .........................................................................................................................42 8. References ..........................................................................................................................43 9. Appendixes .........................................................................................................................45 i LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. The Northwest Passage and Northern Sea Route ......................................................... 2 Figure 2. Arctic regions investigated .................................................................................................... 7 Figure 3. Heavy fuel oil use in the Arctic, 2015, with minimum sea extents displayed ...... 23 Figure 4. Number of ships and total fuel carriage type for the Geographic Arctic, IMO Arctic, and U.S. Arctic regions ................................................................................................25 Figure 5. Share of total black carbon emissions by ship class in the U.S. Arctic, 2015 .....26 Figure 6. Black carbon emissions in the Arctic, 2015 ...................................................................27 Figure 7. Black carbon emissions by top five emitting flag states in the IMO Arctic, 2015 .............................................................................................................................................. 30 ii LIST OF TABLES Table 1. In-service and on-order vessels by IMO NOX tier in the Arctic ..................................9 Table 2. Missing vessel characteristics for Arctic ships in 2015 ................................................. 11 Table 3. Vessels by engine type in the Arctic .................................................................................. 12 Table 4. Phase assignment decision matrix (all ship classes except liquid tankers) ........ 13 Table 5. Phase assignment decision matrix for liquid tankers .................................................. 13 Table 6. Assumed vessel engine state by phase............................................................................. 13 Table 7. Carbon dioxide intensity by fuel type ................................................................................ 15 Table 8. Assumed fuel density by fuel type......................................................................................16 Table 9. Growth multipliers (BAU) with 2015 as the baseline year ......................................... 17 Table 10. Diversion multipliers for residual fuel consumption and carriage by pollutant in 2020 and 2025 ......................................................................................................... 18 Table 11. Number of ships by ship class in the Arctic, 2015 ........................................................19 Table 12. Totals operating hours by ship class in the Arctic, 2015 .........................................20 Table 13. Total distance traveled by ship class in the Arctic, 2015 .......................................... 21 Table 14. Total fuel consumed by ship class in the Arctic, 2015 ............................................... 21 Table 15. Heavy fuel oil use in the Arctic, 2015 ............................................................................... 22 Table 16. Heavy fuel oil carriage and transport as bunker fuel in the Arctic, 2015 .......... 24 Table 17. Black carbon emissions in the Arctic, 2015 ................................................................... 26 Table 18. Fuel consumption, emissions, and activity in the Geographic Arctic by Top Five flag states ........................................................................................................................ 28 Table 19. Fuel consumption, emissions, and activity in the IMO Arctic by Top Five flag states ....................................................................................................................................... 29 Table 20. Fuel consumption, emissions, and activity in the U.S. Arctic by Top Five flag states .......................................................................................................................................30 Table 21. Fuel use, fuel carriage, and emissions in the Geographic Arctic in 2015, 2020, and 2025 by scenario ................................................................................................. 32 Table 22. Fuel use, fuel carriage, and emissions for the IMO Arctic region in 2015, 2020, and 2025, by scenario ................................................................................................ 33 Table 23. Fuel use, fuel carriage, and emissions for the U.S. Arctic in 2015, 2020, and 2025 by scenario ............................................................................................................. 35 Table 24. Findings compared to DNV (2013) results for the IMO Arctic